Area of disturbed weather SW of the Cape Verde Islands

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This morning a nice looking blob of convection emerged from the African coast. QuikScat showed a 45 knot wind barb from the west...Lets see if the tropical wave mantains those thunderstorms as we are now approaching the very peak of the hurricane season...

[Hyperstorm]

System is quite well-organized at this time with a defined area of lower-level circulation as well as an organized cluster of deep convection. If this were over the Gulf of Mexico, it would likely be a tropical depression or storm. However, downstream 24-72 hours from now, it will have a very tough time trying to sustain itself. Why?

A MAJOR upper-level trough located to its NW.

As the system moves westward, it will feel its effects with more vigor. Strong southerly winds will likely prohibit this from developing. Right now, it is already feeling its effects, but the worst of it is yet to come.

**Note the VIGOROUS low pressure center that will move off Africa during the next 3-4 days. That system, IMO, is the one to watch with favorable upper-level winds setting up when it moves offshore and a vigorous mid-level circulation at a low latitude.

September 8...

[HenkL]

Forecast for the NAMMA project has the following on this blob:

"Forecast for Friday Sept 8
September 8th, 2006

Visible and Infrared Satellite images show convection just off the coast of Dakar at 15N, 19W. Because of the system’s positioning, flight passes within 50km of NPOL is planned for today. Analysis of the GFS winds do not show a significant circulation pattern. Very weak winds exist that have a cyclonic tendency in the 925mb level, but it is not so apparent. ECMWF shows a slightly more visible cyclonic circulation than GFS. The wave is noticeable up to the 700mb level in GFS winds just not as a cyclonic circulation. Radar images from NPOL showed a circulation last night but it has disspated this morning. The flight planned for today is to try and find the wave structure.

GFS winds at 950mb for the 24 hour forecast shows a stronger circulation than the analysis, with the center located between 14 and 15N ; 20 and 21W. The circulation gets a little weaker as it advances to the 850mb level, and is not apparent at all on the 700mb level. The 36 hour forecast shows a weak circulation at 925mb, and the wave axis is visible in the 850mb and 700mb level. The 48 hour forecast is not supportive in following a steady, surviving wave as it has the wave dissapating. On the 925mb level on Sunday at 00Z the wave is almost non-existent, with just a slight kink in the isotachs aroun 30W. The 700mb level however still exhibits a more apparent wave pattern with increasing winds from the SE just to the east of the wave axis."

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[cycloneye]

There is the big trough that Hyperstorm is talking about that will impart shear to this system.

[Zardoz]

**Note the VIGOROUS low pressure center that will move off Africa during the next 3-4 days. That system, IMO, is the one to watch with favorable upper-level winds setting up when it moves offshore and a vigorous mid-level circulation at a low latitude.

It does appear to be getting a very good head start.

[CrazyC83]

Give them several days and we will know better. But again they have to fight shear.

[gatorcane]

that is some trough for early September? Am I wrong?

[SouthFloridawx]

Give them several days and we will know better. But again they have to fight shear.

This one hasn't even done anything and we're already talking about it being sheared apart?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Looks like this area is far enough south to be affected too much by the upper level trough. There is shear hundreds of miles ahead but, that is from Florence. We are going to have to watch these waves after the east coast trough pulls out and strong ridging builds in. Once again I think the central atlantic will be the next area we have to watch for development.

[Weathermaster]

Maybe they are refering to these one and should be a long tracker...

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE HAS INTENSIFIED LITTLE
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. IT WILL BEGIN TO CURVE
TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND GIVING THE LOCAL AREA WIDE
BERTH. A TROUGH FORMED BY THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
BELONGING TO FLORENCE AND THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER
COLOMBIA FOR QUITE SOME TIME WILL CROSS OVER PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY
AND PASS OVER THE AREA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH...ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM WILL
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT

[Zardoz]

Maybe they are refering to these one and should be a long tracker...

...ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM WILL
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT.

Or are they referring to this one? :

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89462

[Weathermaster]

because later they mentioned it has not develop yet....
THE GFS 40 IS FAIRLY BULLISH ABOUT AN UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE THAT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE VERY GOOD AND CURRENT RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL
BE JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT FEATURE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 280
HOURS FROM NOW. THE GFS THEN BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG LOW CIRCULATION
TOWARD THE AREA. YESTERDAY IT MOVED IT JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...TODAY IT MOVES IT JUST NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT YET
APPARENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MAY NOT DEVELOP FOR
ANOTHER 60 TO 80 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE MODEL.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to latest TPC Surface Analysis is has just develop an area of low pressure, which they will talk about on their next discussion at 205pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[emeraldislencguy]

i have read so many post today and everyone is saying the season is over--heck it is just sept 8 and a lot can happen till the end of november--get tired of everyone saying the season is over and we still have several months to go--we need to remember hazel which hit us hard on october 15--and the other late season storms that have hit us in nc--the way the people are talking it is late december and the temp is about 55 outside--it is still summer and the water is plenty warm--just get tired of everyone saying the season is over--remember it takes just one bad storm--I wonder how the people in Bermuda feel when they hear."The Season Is Over." as they prepare for Florence--we need to be careful what we say

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N19W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 20W-23W.

2 PM Discussion.

[Dynamic]

We are talking about two differents systems, maybe three. One, the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic, second the low that is emerging from Africa and third a tropical wave still in the African continent.

The wave that GFS develop with possibilities to affect the Winward Islands is the one that is currently inside of Africa. They said that could affect the area in 280 hours or 11 days from now.

Maybe I'm wrong, but neither of the other two may take more than 11 days to reach the Caribbean.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Looking good this morning

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

QuikScat clearly shows a circulation near 13N 22W
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah this one is looking good with come convection sticking around and now QS finds a low associated with it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 7conv.html
It's got some low level convergence associated

You can see this low as well as 93L and a portion of Flo on this sat pic.
http://tinyurl.com/ef3rx