Will Western Caribbean be shut down this year

[ConvergenceZone]

^Your getting bashed for a reason, because you keep prematurely calling the season "over" when its really not. If this was Oct 31, then I can understand, but saying this in June, then July, then August, then Sept gets annoying.

No, I don't mean that we were calling a season over because it was "literally" over according to the calendar. What I meant is that due to the El Nino effects, shear/dry air that ANYTHING was going to have a hard time getting going this year. There was just never any clear evidence that any of those factors would go away, not to mention the ULL's all over the place...
Most people are cool on here, but there were some who failed to see the reality of the situation, and all we would here is "wait until August 15", then "wait until September 1st, etc.....

My main point isn't so much that there's less activity, it's that ANYTHING is having a struggle getting it's act together...I mean, how many hurricanes have we seen?. There hasn't been one "pretty" fish storm out there this year. I got a bit excited about Florence when it started to develop, but by the time it hits hurricane strength(if it does)... it will probably be extratropical.

I think the national hurricane center is just perplexed as I am about this season. You can see it in their writeups, and they've mentioned it in articles before.


The only reason we aren't below normal yet is because we had an early start with a storm this year, otherwise we'd be below normal. Plus, remember normality is also based upon how many hurricanes develop, not just tropical storms. This year it's been the year of the tropical storms.

[TheRingo]

If this will be the year of the tropical storms and shear, one has to wonder if the SST's building up would be a problem. I mean what if the one of these storms enters the gulf, will shear be big enough to suppress the energy in the gulf?

[Bailey1777]

The calendar will determine when the season is over period! But I agree that in all my years of watching these sysyems this is the weirdest. It's as if the entire basin is set up in a defensive position ready to ambush developement.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree about this being the year of the tropical storms. Florence may still develop into a Cane, but that will probably be about it. The conditions in the Atlantic/Carib just aren't conducive enough to develop a cane, and I don't see anything that is going to change that.

[ronjon]

I don't know what the FSU MM5 model is keying on but its been consistently lowering pressures in the western caribbean and southern GOM in the next 4-5 days. The latest run has low pressure of 1002 mb centered over the Yuc Peninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png

[southerngale]

ronjon...the link doesn't work.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

It's beginning to look a lot like El Nino
Nothing here to track
No hurricanes here or there
No depressions anywhere
El Nino's shear has caused the lack.

Oh, It's beginning to look a lot like El Nino
Soon the fronts will start
And the only thing you'll see
Is a quiet ocean sea
On your tra-cking chart.

Next up: "I'm Dreaming of a Quiet Basin".