Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days?

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SouthFloridawx
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Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days?

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:04 pm

Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Here are the models supporting my claim:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

Nogaps indicates Low Pressure starting to come off the coast in 144 Hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

FSUMM5 also show low pressure off the coast in 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#2 Postby Zardoz » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:11 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:

1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?

2. If so, what the heck is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?


Edited by GulfBreezer
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#3 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:18 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Here are the models supporting my claim:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr


The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November. :lol: Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#4 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:27 pm

Zardoz wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:
1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?
2. If so, what the hell is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?

As far as #2 I have no idea but, #1 seems to be the area I circle below. I have not looked at the loop yet to tell if it has rotation already.

Image
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#5 Postby jusforsean » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:52 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Here are the models supporting my claim:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr


The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November. :lol: Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.

:roflmao: November
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#6 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 2:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Here are the models supporting my claim:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr


The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November. :lol: Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.



Imagine what this board would be like if a storm hung around for 2 months. :lol:


Kind of like this, I guess: :yayaya:
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#7 Postby Stephanie » Fri Sep 08, 2006 2:22 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Here are the models supporting my claim:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr


The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November. :lol: Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.



Imagine what this board would be like if a storm hung around for 2 months. :lol:


Kind of like this, I guess: :yayaya:


No, that would be the Mods/Admins! :lol:
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#8 Postby crazycajuncane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:26 pm

2 months ... 200 wobbles.... a few loops... stall outs.... burnouts... regenerations...

I can't wait to see this storm.
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#9 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:39 pm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml
The low associated with this area is currently over Africa where I showed a picture of it above.
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#10 Postby Zardoz » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:46 pm

So, we have two waves and two lows to keep an eye on:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

The season doesn't seem to be quite over yet, it looks like.
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days

#11 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:46 pm

Zardoz wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg

Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:

1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?

2. If so, what the hell is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?


1- Yes (I assume - I didn't look at loops either), and it isn't as rare as you think. Low pressure systems over Africa in the tropics actually look like this almost frequently during the summer/fall months.

2- Initially survive for less than 24h, then fall almost completely apart. A decent circulation will probably still be there (if one is present when it exits the coast), though convection will be meager at best. It will then have to build up convection again while maintaing the swirl.
Well, at least that is what seems to be what happens most of the time this year. :wink:
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#12 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:26 pm

Wow that is a big strong high. With good conditions for a storm to form. How ironic it will be to see the 06 season take off in Sept and Oct.
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#13 Postby Deputy Van Halen » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:32 pm

Imagine what this board would be like if a storm hung around for 2 months.


Hey, during the off months, why don't we track the storm that is the Great Red Spot on Jupiter? That thing's been spinning since at least 1655! :P
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#14 Postby Meso » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:18 am

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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:07 am

Intersting runs thanks meso.. I was posting recon and stuff last night.
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#16 Postby Zardoz » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:40 pm

Did it suddenly fall completely apart between 5W and 10W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir2.html
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