Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days?
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- SouthFloridawx
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Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days?
Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
Nogaps indicates Low Pressure starting to come off the coast in 144 Hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
FSUMM5 also show low pressure off the coast in 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
Nogaps indicates Low Pressure starting to come off the coast in 144 Hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
FSUMM5 also show low pressure off the coast in 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:
1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?
2. If so, what the heck is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?
Edited by GulfBreezer
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November.

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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
Zardoz wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:
1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?
2. If so, what the hell is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?
As far as #2 I have no idea but, #1 seems to be the area I circle below. I have not looked at the loop yet to tell if it has rotation already.

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- jusforsean
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
Stormcenter wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November.Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.

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- AnnularCane
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
Stormcenter wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November.Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.
Imagine what this board would be like if a storm hung around for 2 months.

Kind of like this, I guess:

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- Stephanie
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
AnnularCane wrote:Stormcenter wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Here are the models supporting my claim:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
The good thing is by the time that reaches the U.S.
it will be November.Just adding a little humor to an otherwise dull day.
Imagine what this board would be like if a storm hung around for 2 months.![]()
Kind of like this, I guess:
No, that would be the Mods/Admins!

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- crazycajuncane
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- SouthFloridawx
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http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml
The low associated with this area is currently over Africa where I showed a picture of it above.
The low associated with this area is currently over Africa where I showed a picture of it above.
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So, we have two waves and two lows to keep an eye on:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif
The season doesn't seem to be quite over yet, it looks like.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif
The season doesn't seem to be quite over yet, it looks like.
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- WindRunner
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Re: Models Indicate Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days
Zardoz wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Well we have some consensus of some Eastern Atlantic Development in 3-5 Days from now coming from a wave that can be seen here:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 5-1237.jpg
Please bear with a clueless amateur while I ask two stupid questions:
1. Are we seeing rotation, a trace of banding, and convection in a system that is still over land?
2. If so, what the hell is that thing going to do when it hits the Atlantic?
1- Yes (I assume - I didn't look at loops either), and it isn't as rare as you think. Low pressure systems over Africa in the tropics actually look like this almost frequently during the summer/fall months.
2- Initially survive for less than 24h, then fall almost completely apart. A decent circulation will probably still be there (if one is present when it exits the coast), though convection will be meager at best. It will then have to build up convection again while maintaing the swirl.
Well, at least that is what seems to be what happens most of the time this year.

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MM5 00z run @ 120 hours
GFS 00z run @ 144 hours (Possible system to the S.E of the CV system?)
CMC 00z run @ 144 hours
GFS 06z run @ 114 hours
GFS 06z run @ 114 hours VORTICITY
GFS 00z run @ 144 hours (Possible system to the S.E of the CV system?)
CMC 00z run @ 144 hours
GFS 06z run @ 114 hours
GFS 06z run @ 114 hours VORTICITY
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- SouthFloridawx
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Did it suddenly fall completely apart between 5W and 10W?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir2.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir2.html
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- SouthFloridawx
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CMC 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
GFS 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
MM5FSU
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
GFS 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
MM5FSU
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
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