TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

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Trugunzn
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#361 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:28 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Wind field shrunk a bit, 405-375, I think this could be a sign that she is getting ready to intensify.



probally tighting up
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#362 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:29 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Wind field shrunk a bit, 405-375, I think this could be a sign that she is getting ready to intensify.


See my post above. There were obs just outside that convective ball that were in the 20 kt range in all quadrants. And that's only 250nm from the center. TS force winds appear to be way less than the 4pm NHC advisory.
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#363 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:29 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt

Now down even more.
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#364 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:31 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 991.2mb/ 59.0kt

Now down even more.


Hmmm I see no evidence of a turn still, it is still below 25N and tracking generally WNW.....
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Derek Ortt

#365 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:32 pm

again, be very careful using an ODT without a clear eye
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Jim Cantore

#366 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:37 pm

Derek, I have a question, whats an ODT?
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#367 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:38 pm

NHC expect the furthest she'll get is 65W, right now she is almost 61W.
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Derek Ortt

#368 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:41 pm

ODT is objective Dvorak technique
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#369 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:44 pm

There going to find a hurricane tonight...

Image
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Rainband

#370 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:46 pm

Maybe my eye are playing tricks on me but, the center seems to have relocated further sw and is under that grey area that is spinning??
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#371 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:49 pm

Rainband wrote:Maybe my eye are playing tricks on me but, the center seems to have relocated further sw and is under that grey area that is spinning??


i think its in the same spot but then the gray area covered over that spot
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#372 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:52 pm

08/2345 UTC 23.7N 60.6W T3.5/3.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
This SSD position is more south and east of the 8 PM advisory that was 24.1n-60.9w.
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#373 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:52 pm

fact789 wrote:
Rainband wrote:Maybe my eye are playing tricks on me but, the center seems to have relocated further sw and is under that grey area that is spinning??


i think its in the same spot but then the gray area covered over that spot


I think it is in the yellow-orange area in the middle. Eyewall covered by cirrus.
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Jim Cantore

#374 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:52 pm

Trugunzn wrote:There going to find a hurricane tonight...

Image


What makes you think that?
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Rainband

#375 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:52 pm

after looking at the floater. I say she turns at 65 just like they said.
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#376 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:08/2345 UTC 23.7N 60.6W T3.5/3.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

This SSD position is more south and east of the 8 PM advisory that was 24.1n-60.9w.


Wow, two sources saying T3.5 or more (another now at T3.8) - that should bring it officially at least to 55kt...
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#377 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:55 pm

DVORAK est. are starting to plummet with the lastest convection burst.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2006 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 24:14:28 N Lon : 60:44:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -75.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Image

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html
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#378 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:58 pm

That justifies at least 55, if not 60, knots...somehow I think the NHC will stubbornly keep it at 45 until the Recon goes out.

For the moment I'd personally hold it at 55kt but that could change.
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#379 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:00 pm

shes definitely west of the NHC forecast point....
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Derek Ortt

#380 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:01 pm

depends upon what the other Dvorak estimates are

You are only considering two of them, and one is hardly mentioned by NHC
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