Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rainstorm]

looks like a huge upper low is dropping south directly toward 93L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats to be expected rainstorm this year.

[rainstorm]

we needed a break

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on September 8, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Florence...located about 575 miles south-southeast of Bermuda.

A small area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles
east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles and about 900
miles east-southeast of Tropical Storm Florence. Despite strong
upper-level winds...this system continues to produce a few
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds could
become marginally conducive for some development of this system
during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
$$
Forecaster Knabb/Berg

[SouthFloridawx]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060909 0000 060909 1200 060910 0000 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 47.2W 21.9N 48.9W 21.9N 50.7W 22.5N 52.5W
BAMM 22.2N 47.2W 22.7N 48.9W 23.4N 50.6W 24.4N 52.4W
A98E 22.2N 47.2W 22.7N 49.1W 23.1N 51.2W 23.9N 53.4W
LBAR 22.2N 47.2W 22.4N 49.1W 22.7N 51.2W 23.3N 53.4W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060911 0000 060912 0000 060913 0000 060914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 54.4W 26.0N 57.5W 30.3N 57.9W 34.3N 51.0W
BAMM 25.8N 54.2W 29.9N 56.9W 35.4N 56.7W 40.1N 49.9W
A98E 26.0N 55.6W 30.8N 58.5W 37.4N 56.0W 42.8N 40.6W
LBAR 24.2N 55.6W 27.7N 59.6W 32.7N 60.7W 38.9N 52.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 47.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 45.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[rainstorm]

i think 93L will be gone by tomorrow

[boca]

Looks like 93L will be a fish like Florence unless Florence directly hits Bermuda.

[sponger]

Bermuda will get worked!

[SouthFloridawx]

788
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006



TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 25N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS DETACHED ITSELF FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF FLORENCE AND NOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 45W-50W.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

To give a general Idea here is the approximate location of Low Pressure associated with 93L.

[NONAME]

Doesn't look as good as last night but still gots a chance.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rgb-l.jpg

What is that down at 9N 45W?

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 62&start=0

We haved been discussing about that area that I called the sleeper at thread in the link above.

[cycloneye]

09/1145 UTC 21.9N 49.3W T1.0/1.0 93L
09/0645 UTC 22.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 93L


The last two SSD positions and T number which is the same.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060909 1200 060910 0000 060910 1200 060911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 49.3W 21.7N 51.1W 22.2N 53.0W 23.2N 54.9W
BAMM 21.6N 49.3W 22.0N 51.3W 23.0N 53.3W 24.8N 54.9W
A98E 21.6N 49.3W 21.7N 50.8W 22.1N 52.7W 23.2N 54.8W
LBAR 21.6N 49.3W 21.5N 51.1W 21.8N 53.3W 22.4N 55.6W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060911 1200 060912 1200 060913 1200 060914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 56.6W 27.4N 59.1W 31.8N 56.9W 32.9N 48.3W
BAMM 27.2N 56.1W 33.3N 55.9W 39.7N 49.2W 44.8N 40.2W
A98E 25.0N 57.2W 30.0N 59.4W 36.1N 55.2W 43.4N 44.9W
LBAR 23.3N 58.0W 26.8N 61.8W 31.8N 62.8W 36.7N 57.4W
SHIP 30KTS 42KTS 54KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 42KTS 54KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 49.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 47.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 45.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Models.If it survives the shear it will recurve.

[Hyperstorm]

There seems to be a weak low-level circulation near a new burst of convection near 22N, 49W. The burst seems to be fairly weak possibly due to one of two reasons: too weak of a LLC to generate deep bursts or 2006 mid-Atlantic dryness entraining. The latter seems to be the factor as yesterday's bursts were stronger.

Upper-level winds over this system have gradually decreased over the past 12 hours. The anticyclone associated with Florence is moving NW with the hurricane, leaving the system under weaker northerly shear. If the model forecasts for this system are accurate (as they have so far), shear should be even lower from the NE by tomorrow.

First, it'll have to survive the weaker, but still moderate shear and dry air today. If it does, this system could start to organize some on Sunday.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 091512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

My thoughts remain unchanged today with this area. 93L is currently close enough to still be affected by Florence but, far enough away to be able to hold a weak circulation and keep the convecion going.


I can't tell from the Last QS pass this morning if it has a circulation or not but, TPC continues to represent it as such.

The nogaps shows a much different solution than the bamm's and other early model guidance.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

This is my general thinking is this:

As long as 93L can hold it's own dealing with the shear it should have a decent shot at becoming a Storm. Looking at the low level flow 700-850 (for weak systems) it appears to be on the Southeast side of the deep layered ridge. This would tell me that as Flo continues to move norhward this system still has to move westward but, at a slower rate of speed. Florence is moving at 13mph right now but, her forward speed is to gradually pick up and eventually sky-rocket off to the north and northeast.
I think we'll see a westward moving system but, it's going to be hard to tell how much of a weakness Florence leave behind as she moves north.

For the next 24-48 Hours I expect this area to flare up and down but, continue to be sheared and as Flo moves farther and farther away should allow 93 to get better organized.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 1java.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
Here you can see the trough lifting out in a 5 Day Java Movie.

[HURAKAN]

Lets see how long it lasts!!!