SE TX Rainfall

[jasons2k]

I think it's past time to raise those pops up from 10% for tonight...looks lik some decent rain on the way

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, your right. I guess we will just have to see if it holds together long enough to reach us.

[Yankeegirl]

Its drizzleing out here now...

[jasons2k]

It rained here most of the overnight - been raining steady all morning here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a rainy 7 days is ahead. The morning AFD did not sound promising for anything but rain through next weekend. 60% chances today, tomorrow, and Monday, and then 40-50% chances for everyday beyond.

Here is the discussion:

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT INITIAILIZED BEST WITH MASS FIELDS.
PW`S HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND
NEAR 1.8 INCHES INLAND. 250 MB WINDS ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT AND 850
MB WINDS ARE WEAKLY CONVERGENT. AT 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEVELOPING INVERTED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PARAMETERS WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMP FORECAST IS TOUGH AS A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PW`S REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T
SHOW MUCH OF A CAPPING INVERSION. UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS IS USUAL...TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS DIFFICULT
AND WILL JUST BROAD BRUSH LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DOES NOT GET FAR OFFSHORE AND PWS REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST. AN 850 MB TROF WILL LIE ACROSS SE TX ON TUESDAY AND
WED...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS. GFS SEEMS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEW POINTS/LOW TEMPS OVER THE NORTH TUE/WED NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS AGAIN INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 2.1 INCHES. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST WITH RENEWED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 43

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seems like an area of low pressure is spinning up just NE of Matagorda bay. Though I don't think it will become anything tropical (because it is inland), it looks like it is starting to draw the moisture offshore back toward our area. Wouldn't be surprised to see an area of heavy, flooding rains today for parts of SE Texas.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Yankeegirl]

it all good... i am going to the mall!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest AFD less promising for rain. Rain chances lowered to 40% tomorrow:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 PM CDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MOVING ENE ACROSS UPPER TEXAS
COAST AND COASTAL ZONES. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR
SOUTH TEXAS PICKED UP BY 18Z RUC AND WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY BY EVENING.
BELIEVE THIS MAY STILL STILL AFFECT COASTAL WATERS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT COASTAL ZONES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS
BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE COASTAL REGION WILL HAVE WEAK CONFLUENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THIS UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE. NAM DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND
GFS HAS CHANGED THE SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUN. LATEST GFS RUN HAS BACKTRACKED ON MOISTURE/POPS NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS LOWERING PWATS LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO DRYING AT MID/UPPER LEVELS. NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
GFS NOW BRINGING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR 24 HOURS EARLIER WHICH WILL
BE TUESDAY PUSHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NW GULF. MOISTURE INCREASE
NOTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SW SECTIONS AND RETURN FLOW EVIDENT
AREAWIDE THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WILL HAVE HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW.
NOTE THAT WE WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS
BEFORE WE LOWER OR TAKE OFF POPS FOR TUESDAY (AS WHAT GFS IS NOW
INDICATING).
37

[southerngale]

It's 60%/50%/60% here for the next 3 days. I think that's slightly up from this morning, where I think they were all 50%, but not positive on that. They haven't been lowered though. Maybe later.

[Yankeegirl]

Nice and clear out now,.. go figure? It always does that when we have high chances for rain!!