TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[cycloneye]

The latest 11 PM track has the center passing around 8 NM ESE of Bermuda.

[brunota2003]

Just a friendly reminder...SOMEONE NEEDS TO TAKE CARE OF THE RECON DATA!!! I want to read it tomorrow morning...[/friendly reminder off]

[Evil Jeremy]

I bet 20 green chips that this thing will be a hurricane when Recon enters it.

[gotoman38]

Definitely wish the best for Bermuda, and hope Florance does not make a direct hit.

How good are supplies on an island that far at sea? I know we had trouble getting gas and groceries here in S. Florida during Ernesto, and afterwards with the roof repairs. On an island I must imagine it is much more difficult.

they should be fine. Bermuda is pretty wealthy (one of the wealthiest places on earth)...and the British Navy can get in there after the storm passes if need be.

They're probably prepared really well for storms there too supply and shelterwise.

Well prepared yes... wealthiest nations? It's hard to say - the cost of living on this island is extremely high and most of the population doesn't live in any kind of luxury at all.

The oceanic topography protects Bermuda from surge, and the buildings on this small island are built to withstand Atlantic storms of nearly every variety (those winter N Atlantic blows are nasty!), so my thoughts are that Bermudans will be prepared to recover at least as quickly as the best of us.

[Sanibel]

WHOA! Big black IR burst!

Shouting major again.

[gilbert88]

Bermuda is definitely one of the safest places to be during a hurricane, both topographically and preparation-wise. The people there are better prepared than in most of the US coast, and light years above the rest of the countries of the Atlantic basin.

[curtadams]

Still really disorganized. Here's a sat overflight pic from 0Z showing Florence is still 4 separate storms scattered over a nearly 150 miles arc. I was expecting Flo to be a hurricane on recon, but not anymore

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its right in the middle of the recurve path. They have to be the best. As for how strong this is with the new recon getting in there. So far over the south or southwest quad 47 knots found. I wound not be suprized if 60 to 65 knot found=45 to 50 knot surface winds.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2006 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 24:31:34 N Lon : 61:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 986.9mb/ 65.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Center Temp : -76.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HurricaneHunter914]

This is the coolest picture I have seen of the Shear around Florence.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[sponger]

She sure is a big sucker! Going to be the best swell we have had in the past year. ww3 (fnmoc) shows her at peak intensity when she scrapes bermuda, Two large swells will affect florida, one from the current fetch of wind of well over 600 miles and another from the NE when the pressure gradient tightens as she approaches bermuda.

[wxmann_91]

This is the coolest picture I have seen of the Shear around Florence.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Not suprising.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The massive anticyclone progged for days by models has finally formed over Flo.

[sponger]

What luck for the East Coast! How long before one of these over sized monsters hits a US coast line? I think back to Gilbert and that huge wind field. Flo may give him a run for his money! (Size not intensity)

[f5]

imagine if a storm this size were to head toward miami? ex(Floyd)

[sponger]

Exactly. You would have TS winds to Georgia!

[SouthFloridawx]

imagine if a storm this size were to head toward miami? ex(Floyd)

This is what it would look like over miami right now.

[f5]

i know one thing the gulf coast experienced last year what a super size CAT 5 atlantic hurricane can do

[sponger]

That is to cool!

[SouthFloridawx]

That is to cool!

I know... I really like google earth. It has so many things you can do with it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wilma was about 1/3 times bigger then it is or even slightly more. They eye of wilma was all the way across florida at one time in width.