Southern End of Tropical Wave flareup at 8N 44W

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boca
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Southern End of Tropical Wave flareup at 8N 44W

#1 Postby boca » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:10 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I think we need to be concerned about the low rider it has a low associated with it and it might become a player. 91L will probably follow his mother Florence.
Last edited by boca on Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby StormTracker » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:12 am

Has 91L got cyclonic rotation now? :roll:
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#3 Postby boca » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:18 am

Actually 91L became 93L and it doesn't look like it does at the moment,but the low tracker has rotation because the higher red tops are rotating on sat. This is the one I'm concerned about.
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:19 am

Boca 2 hours ago I was looking at satelllite...In seen a clear LLC.
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#5 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:20 am

What are the coordinates of where you see the spin approximately?
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#6 Postby boca » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:21 am

That area around 8N and 44W our low rider is that an invest yet?
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#7 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:22 am

That's what I thought, and no I don't think so on the invest.
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#8 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:23 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Boca 2 hours ago I was looking at satelllite...In seen a clear LLC.
The sat is in eclipse and not updating.
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:23 am

That is not a invest....But invest 93L has a well defined LLC at 23 north/48 west moving westward. The shear is pushing the convection south, so its exposed. But with a little convection I would upgrade it. If I had the power!
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#10 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:25 am

It's the Southern Extent of the tropical wave which on the northern end happens to be 93L. It would be interesting to see if Flo took the northern end of the wave out with her and the southern end could eventually get going.



A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LAST
NIGHT THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW
SUGGEST THAT IT IS A SEPARATE FEATURE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS
ALSO FORMED ON THIS WAVE NEAR 21N/22N. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
MADE HIGHER AMPLITUDE ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REFLECT THIS.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

They are going to add the Low for 93L on the 205 Disco.
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#11 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:25 am

Matt anything at the surface with the little guy down South?
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#12 Postby boca » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:27 am

Matt you have the power knock down the gavel 3 times. The area at 8N and 44W should be an invest by tomrrow (94L).
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#13 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:28 am

That should keep the nhc busy. Very interesting. I imagine outflow from Florence should rip any trailers apart but who knows?
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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:30 am

8 north/44 is likely a itcz convection. The tropical wave is at 32 west and 47 west. So most likely nothing for now. But on the other hand 23 north/48 west is looking very good right now.
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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:31 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:8 north/44 is likely a itcz convection. The tropical wave is at 32 west and 47 west. So most likely nothing for now. But on the other hand 23 north/48 west is looking very good right now.


...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N21W 9N37W 8N43W THEN DISCONTINUOUS
ALONG 13N62W 11N79W 10N83W. THE INTERRUPTION IN THE ITCZ IS
CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES....SCATTERED MODERATE LIES
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 36W-49W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS OVER N SOUTH AMERICA W OF 65W.

...DISCUSSION...
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#16 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:31 am

That one is definitely fish food.
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:33 am

Here is the 18z....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

The 23/48 has a well defined LLC...If shear can lessen a little that convection would form over it. It would not take much for it to look better then Florenece did yesterday.
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#18 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:35 am

http://tinyurl.com/pn2sd

If convection persists and it can break away from the ITCZ maybe something can happen with it.
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#19 Postby boca » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:37 am

Are you guys certain the area to the south is the southern extension of a tropical wave of which 93L is part of?
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#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:39 am

Its about 300 nmi east of the wave 93L is part of.
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