TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

windnrain · #441 Postby **windnrain** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:22 am

Djtil, it would be interesting to find a way to see how much energy a storm carries, based off of its size and wind speeds... I would honestly not be surprised if, juoles for juoles, they have similar energies.

djtil · #442 Postby **djtil** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:25 am

Djtil, it would be interesting to find a way to see how much energy a storm carries, based off of its size and wind speeds... I would honestly not be surprised if, juoles for juoles, they have similar energies.

so whats your point? energy or "devistation"? im referring to your mention of the latter.

#443 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:26 am

Matt my point was in the right conditions even a very large storm like Wilma could get it's act together in a hurry and why isn't this one doing that? What's unfavorable right now?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #444 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:28 am

Wilma likely put out more energy/heat then katrina. It takes some serious energy to keep a core that tight and powerful. In the winds where likely stronger then the 180 mph the recon found. The eye was less then a few miles wide. Very few samples.

Also think that Wilma cloud tops where at less 10 to 15c colder then Katrina's. Wilma cdo was soild black. Thats serious energy.

Thunder44 · #445 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:29 am

NRL shows winds down to 50kts:

06LFLORENCE.50kts-NAmb-241N-609W

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #446 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:31 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Matt my point was in the right conditions even a very large storm like Wilma could get it's act together in a hurry and why isn't this one doing that? What's unfavorable right now?

No Organized central core. See a central core is not a defused/broad LLC like the recon is finding. The wind field is broad which means that the central core is not organized. But with this convection pumping more heat into the core=temperature difference between inside to outside. Which will tighten the wind core. In which once doing so the storm should strengthen.

Also that shear maps posted earlier...Shows a wonderflow Anticyclone, so once this thing gets going then it could go for cat2 easly.

windnrain · #447 Postby **windnrain** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:36 am

Djtil, I don't know "whats" my point, so "im" just going to put all of your grammatical mistakes in quotations, because you know.. that's what all the cool kids do. "thats" clear to you, right?

#448 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:36 am

Ok wonderful explanation. So basically once the core tightens it's off to the races provided nothing weird happens.

Thanks!

Cyclenall · #449 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:38 am

Thunder44 wrote:NRL shows winds down to 50kts:

06LFLORENCE.50kts-NAmb-241N-609W

It's been like that and never higher since the storm got to "50 knots" (it's not really at 50 knots though.

#450 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:52 am

My Wife just walked in here and told me if I didn't want to marry Florence I had better get my @#$ off the computer...................

Think Flo will accept?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #451 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:55 am

Florence is already having a child...So do you went to have to look after that to? :lol:

#452 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:57 am

Well since they will both be out of my life in about the next 14 days I won't get too attached!

#453 Postby **Bailey1777** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:01 am

Now I'm getting the "get a life" speech, see you'll tomorrow.

#454 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:04 am

Flo is looking pretty good... explains the pressure drop 5mb since the last VDM.

Thunder44 · #455 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:14 am

124
WHXX01 KWBC 090654
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060909 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060909 0600 060909 1800 060910 0600 060910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 62.3W 24.7N 63.5W 25.7N 64.5W 27.0N 65.5W
BAMM 23.8N 62.3W 24.7N 63.4W 25.7N 64.3W 27.2N 65.0W
A98E 23.8N 62.3W 25.0N 64.4W 26.2N 66.0W 27.3N 67.1W
LBAR 23.8N 62.3W 25.0N 64.1W 26.5N 65.7W 28.2N 67.4W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060911 0600 060912 0600 060913 0600 060914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.4N 65.9W 32.6N 63.3W 36.4N 54.8W 37.9N 44.0W
BAMM 28.6N 65.3W 31.9N 62.9W 33.5N 56.3W 32.7N 49.0W
A98E 28.5N 67.5W 31.0N 65.4W 33.2N 59.1W 35.3N 53.5W
LBAR 29.9N 68.2W 33.7N 67.4W 37.7N 63.0W 38.5N 52.4W
SHIP 95KTS 101KTS 95KTS 85KTS
DSHP 95KTS 101KTS 95KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 60.0W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 250NM

$$

Thunder44 · #456 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:15 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:NRL shows winds down to 50kts:

06LFLORENCE.50kts-NAmb-241N-609W

It's been like that and never higher since the storm got to "50 knots" (it's not really at 50 knots though.

You're right. 6z models just came out and they still have 55kts will the pressure 993mb.

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #457 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 3:05 am

Thunder44 wrote:124
WHXX01 KWBC 090654
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060909 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060909 0600 060909 1800 060910 0600 060910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 62.3W 24.7N 63.5W 25.7N 64.5W 27.0N 65.5W
BAMM 23.8N 62.3W 24.7N 63.4W 25.7N 64.3W 27.2N 65.0W
A98E 23.8N 62.3W 25.0N 64.4W 26.2N 66.0W 27.3N 67.1W
LBAR 23.8N 62.3W 25.0N 64.1W 26.5N 65.7W 28.2N 67.4W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060911 0600 060912 0600 060913 0600 060914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.4N 65.9W 32.6N 63.3W 36.4N 54.8W 37.9N 44.0W
BAMM 28.6N 65.3W 31.9N 62.9W 33.5N 56.3W 32.7N 49.0W
A98E 28.5N 67.5W 31.0N 65.4W 33.2N 59.1W 35.3N 53.5W
LBAR 29.9N 68.2W 33.7N 67.4W 37.7N 63.0W 38.5N 52.4W
SHIP 95KTS 101KTS 95KTS 85KTS
DSHP 95KTS 101KTS 95KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 22.7N LONM12 = 60.0W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 250NM

$$

I dont know if this is a shift in the models cause I kinda havent been keeping up with Flo for the past few days. However is that a shift in the Bam models? Almost looks like the beginnings of a loop? I know the Bam models are unreliable and GFDL is still taking it up to the Maritimes as is the official track but I was just noticing... and wonderring.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

#458 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:44 am

Good Morning Flo!

Meso · #459 Postby **Meso** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:48 am

Looking good...That's a lot of cold cloud tops :O Looking pretty symetrical especially in comparison with what it looked like 36 hours ago.

#460 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:49 am

Meso wrote:Looking good...That's a lot of cold cloud tops :O Looking pretty symetrical especially in comparison with what it looked like 36 hours ago.

Yea, she looks great. I wonder why the WNW movement now? I just woke up...is recon still in there?

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

Who is online