TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Sanibel]

Think we have a hurricane soon.

[storms in NC]

I just work up too and seen her moving more west than she was to. Alot west movement

23.0W 59.1 W at 11 Am yesterday and today at 5 AM 24.1 62.8N

[Meso]

As far as I know the recon mission ended 3 hours ago,sadly.another 4 or so hours before the next mission departs I think.

[ronjon]

Flo is very close to a hurricane if not one now. Good symmetry, fingering on the edges of the CDO, and a tighter circulation. I would expect we'll see an eye forming today on VIS SAT. She is moving more W-NW and this mornings disc indicated that the center was south of the estimated position. If you didn't know any better, you'd think she was heading straight for FL this morning. But, like the NHC said, its only a matter of time (12-36hrs) before she recurves. Bermuda may take a mean hit on this one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[storms in NC]

JIMo
If you look at this it is like almost due west. I know it is to turn but it may not till later than NHC said.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good Morning!

Beautiful cool day here in SENC.

Anyway . . . and I am in no way suggesting anything. . . but it appears to me that instead of retreating and breaking down, that the H is building W. I see this when looking at the following Sat pics:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rb.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/rgb-l.jpg

What I noticed are the clouds associated with with the anti-cyclone spin moving E-W with time between 30 & 40 N and 55 to 60 W.

[storms in NC]

A question
Could it miss the front? It should have made that turn by now. Not saying it will not turn but will be later in doing so.

[wxman57]

I don't see any westerly movement, it appears to be moving toward about 300 deg. I thought I saw an eye opening up near 25N/63.8W, so I zoomed in and it look like shadows from overshooting tops near the center. However, it does look like the center may be up near 25N now:

[Meso]

There is a pretty much certainty of it moving north.. there is really no reason to believe other than what the forecast is.. all models are still showing the turn... Of course in every situation one could say "Could * do *" there is always a possibility of anything to happen in any situation..But when all evidence points to something you should go by that guidance I'd just look at models and NHC's track and ignore all other thoughts of possibilties cause possibilities can be numorous.

[Emmett_Brown]

It hasnt felt the trough yet... but it is about to:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Seems to have slowed from yesterday... probably getting ready to turn.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I don't know Storms. Everyone seems to be recovering from insecurity around here. No real discussion about the storm . . . Tell you the truth, the models had it turning around 60-65W. It has hit 60-65W and is still moving W to WNW. Also, the center is staying S of guidance. And, there has been a consistent "break" in the front since yesterday along the EC. The short wave has not made it any further S than the Ohio valley.
I think it is funny, that considering that meteorology is a baby science that so many hammer forecasts in stone using words like "never" when the experts (NHC TPC) always coat their language in words like "should." As in:

"THIS COMBINATION SHOULD TURN FLORENCE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR."

I don't see anyone talking about what needs to happen for Flo' to go W. I guess there is a flame barrier around here.

[Emmett_Brown]

In 2004, i remember some of the BAM models started to suggest a looping motion for a couple of runs, then the others followed suit. The 48 hr GFS surface map shows a robust high coming down from Canada.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

The flow at 300mb also becomes a lot more zonal by then:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Perhaps this setup would point to a loop? Of course even if it did, a future trough would likely pick it up.

[cycloneye]

09/1145 UTC 24.3N 63.1W T4.0/4.0 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean

[mesocyclone]

So what needs to happen for Flo to continue west?

[Josephine96]

It has moved a lot more west than north based on the coordinates.. If it makes it to 70 before the turn.. things could get interesting.. But lets just wait and see..

[WmE]

T4.0/4.0=65 knots.

Nearing hurricane strength.

[WmE]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2006 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 24:26:28 N Lon : 63:24:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 980.5mb/ 74.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cinlfla]

I think its just a matter of her feeling the trough. I think someone mentioned this a few post back. Its just a matter of time IMO she will start to move more northerly. She's a big storm she'll devour Bermuda.

[storms in NC]

I had seen that when you posted it. I have no idea what it is going to do. But it (could) not saying it will come closer to the east coast than they think. Yes I see the models and yes they have not changed that much. But I will keep a eye on it till it go out to sea.

5Am 24.1N and 62.8 W now 24.4n and 63.3 W that is WNW

[wxman57]

No need to panic. Florence is right on the projected course - Bermuda-bound. Model guidance hasnt changed as of the 6Z runs. 12Z in shortly. I see the BAM runs are in, but I ignore them as they won't see the digging trof along the east coast. BAM models should not be used north of 20N (or 15N).

It appears that only a few iterations of the NOGAPS runs and the GFDL take the center just west of Bermuda. CONU and CGUN are directly over Bermuda: