TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[Meso]

Previous Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060909 1200 060910 0000 060910 1200 060911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 63.3W 25.4N 64.6W 26.4N 66.0W 27.4N 67.3W
BAMM 24.4N 63.3W 25.4N 64.6W 26.4N 65.8W 27.4N 66.7W
A98E 24.4N 63.3W 25.5N 65.2W 26.8N 66.6W 28.1N 67.5W
LBAR 24.4N 63.3W 25.8N 64.9W 27.3N 66.2W 29.0N 67.6W
SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 85KTS 94KTS
DSHP 60KTS 73KTS 85KTS 94KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060911 1200 060912 1200 060913 1200 060914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.5N 68.1W 31.4N 67.3W 34.8N 59.9W 33.1N 52.8W
BAMM 28.5N 67.4W 31.1N 66.3W 33.0N 60.8W 31.1N 57.2W
A98E 29.1N 68.1W 32.2N 67.0W 34.4N 61.6W 34.7N 54.7W
LBAR 30.1N 68.3W 33.6N 67.8W 37.3N 64.8W 39.5N 57.0W
SHIP 99KTS 101KTS 92KTS 84KTS
DSHP 99KTS 101KTS 92KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 61.1W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 58.5W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 250NM


Almost a hurricane according to the 12:00z run of the models,60kts.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/FLORENCE.shtml?

9-8-06 11PM 24.5N 61.4W

9-9-06
2AM 23.8N 62.3W (This was a correction)

Difference = -.7N and +.9W SW

5AM 24.1N 62.8W

Difference = +.3N +.5W WNW

8AM 24.4N 63.3W

Difference = +.3N +.5W WNW

The Hypothesis presented by all experts, it seems, is this: All else the same a TC will move along a sub-tropical ridge's periphery in response and in proportion to the ridge. That course determined precisely by what factor? Pressure gradient? As I understand it, we determine a High by its pressure. Therefor, it follows that a "deeper" storm will move differently in response to a High pressure "field." Is there a factor for this such as an area of low pressure of X will move with a high pressure along the Y pressure gradient? So that, when a storm has X mb we can find the Y mb's of the High pressure area and determine a path?

I guess you could add that TC's do not break fronts?

[Nimbus]

According to the current forecast track Bermuda will be on the strong side of the storm. The more westerly track didl not help much. Florence looks like she might be slowing, The best you can hope for is that she stalls and gets pulled out south of the island.

[wxman57]

...

I guess you could add that TCs do not break fronts?

Fronts are not impenetrable boundaries, but TCs do not cross frontal boundaries for a good reason. TCs are not self-propelled, they move with the upper level winds. Fronts lie in upper-level trofs - near the leading edge of the upper-level trof. Upper level winds just ahead of the front are typically blowing from the SSW - parellel to the front or blowing slightly away from the front. So as a TC approaches the front, it's steered northward parallel to the front. There are no upper-level winds that would propel the TC across the boundary.

[tailgater]

mrhurricane this site might help.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

this is for a storm of 999 to 990 mb

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2java.html

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

[wxman57]

According to the current forecast track Bermuda will be on the strong side of the storm. The more westerly track didl not help much. Florence looks like she might be slowing, The best you can hope for is that she stalls and gets pulled out south of the island.

Yeah, it does not look good for Bermuda. I think there's a very high probability that Florence will have 115-120 mph sustained winds at peak. But Bermuda is a very tiny target. Whether or not the island gets the worst of Florence will depend on minor fluctuations in the track over the next 48 hours and the structure of Florence's wind field as it passes.

[Scorpion]

Wow Flo is looking really good this morning. Looks like its undergoing rapid intensification, with nice black tops and a good buzzsaw shape going.

[wxman57]

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

The high building over Florida would be of concern if you lived in Bermuda. It means that Florence isn't moving toward Florida, it's taking the path of least resistance between the two high centers (the one over Florida and the one NE of FLorence). Chances of Florence coming toward Florida (and later LA) are almost nonexistent.

[storms in NC]

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

Why would it concern you? if it make the turn it would have no facter on it.
A storm doesn't go to a high it goes away from it

[Stormavoider]

wxman57, Do you have an updated vesion of thisimage you posted yesterday?

[skysummit]

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

Why would it concern you? if it make the turn it would have no facter on it.
A storm doesn't go to a high it goes away from it

Don't mean to speak for him, but I think he means if the high over Florida joins with the Atlantic High and closes off the weakness before Florence can get into it.

[Trugunzn]

Good Morning Every1!

Looking at the AVN, looks like she is near to be a cane.



Also i see the Ships ae back forcasting a major hurricane. Is she still going WNW? Has the turn started?

[wxman57]

wxman57, Do you have an updated vesion of thisimage you posted yesterday?

I don't HAVE one, but I have GARP running and I can make a new one. Give me a minute to capture an image or two then edit them in PaintShop Pro.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still moving WNW, but that will change in the next 24 hrs.

[skysummit]

Flo helping to produce 15 - 20 foot waves now

[Stormavoider]

wxman57, Do you have an updated vesion of thisimage you posted yesterday?

I don't HAVE one, but I have GARP running and I can make a new one. Give me a minute to capture an image or two then edit them in PaintShop Pro.

Thank You

[tailgater]

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

The high building over Florida would be of concern if you lived in Bermuda. It means that Florence isn't moving toward Florida, it's taking the path of least resistance between the two high centers (the one over Florida and the one NE of FLorence). Chances of Florence coming toward Florida (and later LA) are almost nonexistent.

If you had read my earlier post, I said petty much the same thing, please don't type cast me.

Buy me a ticket.
I'm just a W/W but was the little high forming over the Eastern GOM forecast.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2java.html
I don't mean this will hit FLA. but move more on a NNW course longer and maybe a slight threat of not being a fish.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

wxman57 wrote:

No need to panic. Florence is right on the projected course - Bermuda-bound. Model guidance hasnt changed as of the 6Z runs. 12Z in shortly. I see the BAM runs are in, but I ignore them as they won't see the digging trof along the east coast. BAM models should not be used north of 20N (or 15N).

It appears that only a few iterations of the NOGAPS runs and the GFDL take the center just west of Bermuda. CONU and CGUN are directly over Bermuda:

The BAMs are showing this recurving so hard it looks like it would loop back. They were right with Jeanne in this same area in 2004. Any chance Flo would follow the BAMs?

Also, is today still OK to go to the Beach in Fla or have the rip currents gotten to bad for Flo yet for kids.

[skysummit]

I don't mean this will hit FLA. but move more on a NNW course longer and maybe a slight threat of not being a fish.

There's already a MAJOR threat of it not being a fish.....BERMUDA