TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[storms in NC]

The high building over Fla. has me a little bit concerned.

Why would it concern you? if it make the turn it would have no facter on it.
A storm doesn't go to a high it goes away from it

Don't mean to speak for him, but I think he means if the high over Florida joins with the Atlantic High and closes off the weakness before Florence can get into it.

Okay I see what you mean now. IF and that is a BIG IF does block off the turn where could it go ? South? It could make it tight to go though

[skysummit]

Okay I see what you mean now. IF and that is a BIG IF does block off the turn where could it go ? South? It could make it tight to go though

Well, evidentally, I depicted what he said incorrectly He already responded to wxman about it

[wxman57]

By request, I used GARP and the 06Z GFS run to depict the 400-700mb streamlines (10,000-20,000 ft up) in the western Atlantic.

As you can see, Florence is rounding the Bermuda High now (or will shortly). Look at all the streamlines blowing away from the U.S. Coast and the big high over Florida. Unless Florence can sprout propellers, it's moving along with the flow - toward Bermuda.

Oh, and the high over Florida is NOT building eastward, it's retreating westward into the Gulf. It won't block Florence's northward turn.

Today 15Z:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence37.gif

Sunday 15Z:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence38.gif

[x-y-no]

Well, well ...

Florence actually looks like a hurricane this morning. I guess it was too much to hope the she would defy prediction forever ...

Bermuda is going to get walloped.

[tailgater]

I don't mean this will hit FLA. but move more on a NNW course longer and maybe a slight threat of not being a fish.

There's already a MAJOR threat of it not being a fish.....BERMUDA

I stand corrected.

[Stormavoider]

Thanks 57. Is it possible for flo to go south across the islands?

[wxman57]

Thanks 57. Is it possible for flo to go south across the islands?

I wouldn't rule that out completely. I figure there's about a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of Florence doing that.

Here are the 12Z dynamic models (minus the BAMs and LBAR). Note the slight shift to the west side of Bermuda. Only the ETA takes Florence just east of the island. Guidance very tighgly clustered. No chance Florence is heading westward. The only question is just how far from Bermuda it'll track:

[Stephanie]

By request, I used GARP and the 06Z GFS run to depict the 400-700mb streamlines (10,000-20,000 ft up) in the western Atlantic.

As you can see, Florence is rounding the Bermuda High now (or will shortly). Look at all the streamlines blowing away from the U.S. Coast and the big high over Florida. Unless Florence can sprout propellers, it's moving along with the flow - toward Bermuda.

Oh, and the high over Florida is NOT building eastward, it's retreating westward into the Gulf. It won't block Florence's northward turn.

Today 15Z:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence37.gif

Sunday 15Z:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence38.gif

I think that those two maps were extremely helpful in seeing what Florence is up against with the steering currents in the atmosphere. I've always been one that needs to "see" how something works. That was perfect!

[Trugunzn]

Whats Bermudas population?

[Brent]

Whats Bermudas population?

65,000.

[wxman57]

I think that those two maps were extremely helpful in seeing what Florence is up against with the steering currents in the atmosphere. I've always been one that needs to "see" how something works. That was perfect!

Glad to oblige, Setphanie. As you can see, don't get caught up so much in minor wobbles or repositioning of the center. It doesn't really matter if Florence is at 24.1N or 25.1N when considering the upper winds over the region. Look at the big picture here. Florence isn't a U.S. threat unless every single model was initialized wrong today and every single model is way off on its 24hr forecast of winds aloft. Not a very good chance of that.

[Stormavoider]

Looking at [url=http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-61&map=latlon&quality=100%&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal]this big visible loop[/url], it seems to be moving almost due west for the past hour.

[Trugunzn]

[Stormhunter27]

Well, if there's any island in the Atlantic ready for a hurricane it's Bermuda. Almost every place there is built like a bunker. I was there a while ago and I was amazed at how well built the island was.

The hotel I sayed at was almost all concrete and designed to channel the water off the property very fast. It'll be very interesting to see how it handles Florence.

And I'm still waiting to see if what's left of her hits Newfoundland. MOdels are trending it off the coast though. GFDL has been interesting and the CMC keeps insisting that it's going to track over St. Johns.

M

[storms in NC]

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence37.gif

that is a tight squeeze but is better on Sunday as you said the high to move to the west that is over fla

[Solaris]

Bermudas are very densily populated (3,196 ppl/sq.mile)

[HurricaneHunter914]

What would happen IF the Bermuda High moved westward?

[Sanibel]

Storm has solid, dense CDO and is rarin' for hurricane. No-look-back now that it is positioned for recurve. The negative area is past it now.


Look at the symmetrical outflow feathering above the storm as it radiates in all quadrants. Next step is eye formation of Florence.


Look out Bermuda!


(Can't believe people are still trying to pull this west)

[Mac]

Just because people are concerned about the possibility that this storm could defy atmospheric logic and continue on a more westward track may not necessarily mean that they are wishing it upon themselves.

[skysummit]

Wxman57, I believe this was asked before, but I didn't see the answer. What are the possibilities of her pulling a loop like the BAMs are depicting?