TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[Stephanie]

Well, if there's any island in the Atlantic ready for a hurricane it's Bermuda. Almost every place there is built like a bunker. I was there a while ago and I was amazed at how well built the island was.

The hotel I sayed at was almost all concrete and designed to channel the water off the property very fast. It'll be very interesting to see how it handles Florence.

And I'm still waiting to see if what's left of her hits Newfoundland. MOdels are trending it off the coast though. GFDL has been interesting and the CMC keeps insisting that it's going to track over St. Johns.

M

I had stayed at the Sonesta Beach Resort in 1998 or 1999, before Fabian hit. It's located on the SW side of the island. It was shutdown for repairs for at least 6 months. I think that the SW side did get the most damage.

It's a gorgeous, friendly island. I hope she is spared the worst.

[x-y-no]

T-15 and counting for Space Shuttle launch btw

Thanks for the reminder - bringing up Nasa TV now ...

[gotoman38]

I had stayed at the Sonesta Beach Resort the year before Fabian hit. It's located on the SW side of the island. It was shutdown for repairs for at least 6 months. I think that the SW side did get the most damage.

It's a gorgeous, friendly island. I hope she is spared the worst.

I've stayed at the Southampton Princess (currently a Fairmont I think) a few times, once during a nasty winter gale, and everything was just as cozy as it could be, given the outdoor conditions.

My thoughts are with them, but I am certain the island will escape in good shape.

Cheers!

[wxman57]

The center appears to be crossing 25N near 64W now. Moving northwestward.

Time to go mow the lawn. Back later....

[Nimbus]

Looks like a stair step motion to me. We could see another WNW jog later. With 12 hour averaging the forecast track looks about right.

[Trugunzn]

[theworld]

T-15 and counting for Space Shuttle launch btw

Thanks for the reminder - bringing up Nasa TV now ...

They're replaying lift-off now if anyone missed it...

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

[Trugunzn]

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, looks like Bermuda's going to get hit by a pretty strong hurricane. The intensification should be rapid right now, based upon the Satellite presentation, and that usually tells everything. Man, I hope they are ready for this...I think it will be much stronger than what they are calling for by the time it hits the island.

[Thunder44]

I'm not sure if it's doing all that much intensification now. It's got a nice satellite presentation, but we've seen that before without the winds getting much stronger. It's been a very large storm in size, although it may be getting a little smaller more recently. So I think it may not intensify as quickly as it may seem to be doing on satellite. It will be interesting to see what the plane finds soon.

[CrazyC83]

I still think it is a hurricane now though.

[EDR1222]

Hopefully the Shuttle Crew is able to get some pictures of Florence during the next couple of days.

Lets hope Bermuda is spared the worst of her.

[TheRingo]

why are BAM models looping back?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[CrazyC83]

Did you all see the NRL pics?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Eye appears to have formed - just isn't visible. Those made me think we have Hurricane Florence now.

[jusforsean]

why are BAM models looping back?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

cannot access the link

[wxman57]

why are BAM models looping back?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

Because they are very simplistic trajectory models that don't have a clue how the atmospheric steering currents will change in the subtropics over the next 5 days. Ignore them!

[TampaFl]

why are BAM models looping back?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

cannot access the link

Cut & paste the link into your address bar, it will work.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's a cane for sure now! This is the best a storm has looked all season. We have both the 'cane' shape, excellent outflow and tight red convection. They'll more than likely upgrade it on their next advisory....

[wxman57]

I think it's a cane for sure now! This is the best a storm has looked all season. We have both the 'cane' shape, excellent outflow and tight red convection. They'll more than likely upgrade it on their next advisory....

At a FL of 5000 ft, the plane will need to find an 80kt wind to equate to 64 kts at the surface (hurriane strength). Here's a graphic that indicates FL wind vs. surface wind percentage:

[SouthFloridawx]

Judging from the last center fix from recon it appears that the Mid-Level and Low-Level circulation are not lined up very well. This could indicate that the system is still being sheared a bit as thought by Derek.