Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

The new set had a maximun wind of 58kts,the highest so far.

[Derek Ortt]

there still looks to be 15KT of southerly shear over this thing

The Dvorak estimates that were 77 and 90KT fixed an MLC

[Thunder44]

When the plane was in the storm this morning, all the found where 61kt flight level winds which really supported 55mph at the surface. This storm is probably really around 65mph now.

[Thunder44]

222
UZNT13 KNHC 091738
XXAA 59178 99255 70633 07953 99997 27408 10539 00526 ///// /////
92663 23000 12056 85401 20400 13549 88999 77999
31313 09608 81727
61616 AF301 0106A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2556N06337W 1729 MBL WND 11051 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11552 997880 WL150 10545 075 =
XXBB 59178 99255 70633 07953 00997 27408 11963 24800 22850 20400
33843 18400
21212 00997 10539 11993 10540 22984 11049 33954 11055 44942 11551
55933 12058 66917 12558 77901 12552 88894 12054 99880 12549 11843
13549
31313 09608 81727
61616 AF301 0106A FLORENCE OB 07
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2556N06337W 1729 MBL WND 11051 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11552 997880 WL150 10545 075 =


Drop in Rainband, pressure 997mb with surface winds at 39kts.

[cycloneye]

358
SXXX50 KNHC 091744
AF301 0106A FLORENCE HDOB 19 KNHC
1731 2539N 06313W 01520 5035 126 057 184 184 058 01520 0000000000
1731. 2540N 06312W 01525 5032 124 056 180 180 057 01528 0000000000
1732 2541N 06311W 01525 5030 126 056 184 184 057 01530 0000000000
1732. 2542N 06310W 01524 5029 126 055 182 182 055 01530 0000000000
1733 2543N 06309W 01525 5027 127 053 186 184 053 01533 0000000000
1733. 2544N 06307W 01521 5026 126 054 186 186 054 01530 0000000000
1734 2545N 06306W 01527 5023 127 055 182 182 055 01539 0000000000
1734. 2546N 06305W 01524 5022 124 056 170 170 056 01538 0000000000
1735 2547N 06304W 01523 5020 124 054 180 180 055 01538 0000000000
1735. 2548N 06303W 01524 5020 126 055 180 180 055 01539 0000000000
1736 2549N 06301W 01524 5019 126 054 180 180 055 01540 0000000000
1736. 2550N 06300W 01523 5016 123 053 180 180 054 01541 0000000000
1737 2551N 06259W 01526 5016 128 049 180 180 051 01544 0000000000
1737. 2553N 06258W 01524 5014 128 052 184 178 053 01544 0000000000
1738 2554N 06256W 01524 5013 127 052 178 178 054 01547 0000000000
1738. 2555N 06255W 01523 5012 128 053 176 176 054 01546 0000000000
1739 2556N 06254W 01524 5011 125 053 176 176 054 01549 0000000000
1739. 2557N 06253W 01525 5009 126 052 180 180 052 01551 0000000000
1740 2558N 06252W 01524 5008 124 052 176 176 052 01551 0000000000
1740. 2559N 06250W 01524 5007 124 051 174 174 052 01551 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[windnrain]

If this keeps up, Dvorak estimates are broken, not reliable, and should be fixed. Period.

[hurricanefloyd5]

w=ere is the 2pm adv.???????????

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on September 09, 2006



...Florence continuing to move northwestward...

a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for
Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A
Hurricane Warning may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 25.1 north...longitude 64.0 west or about 500
miles...800 km...south of Bermuda.

Florence is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
a gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Florence could become a hurricane later today. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
system.

Florence is a large system and tropical storm force winds extend
outward up to 345 miles...555 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.26 inches.

Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet will be possible along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island.

In addition...large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions...
including strong rip currents...are already affecting Bermuda...as
well as the northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto
Rico...Hispaniola. These conditions will begin to affect the Turks
and Caicos...the Bahamas...and the East Coast of the United States
over the next day or two. See statements from local Weather
Service offices for details on coastal conditions.

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...25.1 N...64.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Rhome

[dwsqos2]

574
UZNT13 KNHC 091747
XXAA 59188 99259 70629 07952 99001 28027 10039 00010 27827 10039
92699 23429 11553 85434 19401 12553 88999 77999
31313 09608 81738
61616 AF301 0106A FLORENCE OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2593N06295W 1740 MBL WND 10547 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11050 001868 WL150 10044 075 =
XXBB 59188 99259 70629 07952 00001 28027 11956 24206 22924 23229
33850 19401 44843 17400
21212 00001 10039 11989 10046 22975 10546 33950 11053 44868 12054
55843 12552
31313 09608 81738
61616 AF301 0106A FLORENCE OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2593N06295W 1740 MBL WND 10547 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11050 001868 WL150 10044 075 =


1001 mb; 39 knots at the surface

[Derek Ortt]

wind data from the NE quad justifies only 45KT at the present time

Shows that Dvorak estimates are totally useless if you do not fix the center properly

[dwsqos2]

459
SXXX50 KNHC 091754
AF301 0106A FLORENCE HDOB 20 KNHC
1741 2600N 06249W 01524 5006 124 050 176 168 051 01553 0000000000
1741. 2601N 06248W 01524 5005 124 051 176 168 051 01554 0000000000
1742 2602N 06247W 01524 5003 124 051 174 172 051 01556 0000000000
1742. 2603N 06246W 01523 5002 125 051 170 170 053 01557 0000000000
1743 2604N 06244W 01524 5002 126 051 178 176 053 01557 0000000000
1743. 2605N 06243W 01527 0000 125 051 176 174 051 01562 0000000000
1744 2606N 06242W 01523 0001 124 050 178 170 051 01559 0000000000
1744. 2607N 06241W 01523 0001 124 050 180 170 050 01560 0000000000
1745 2608N 06240W 01523 0002 127 049 184 164 050 01560 0000000000
1745. 2609N 06238W 01525 0003 127 049 180 174 049 01563 0000000000
1746 2611N 06237W 01523 0004 126 051 176 176 052 01562 0000000000
1746. 2612N 06236W 01524 0006 124 053 178 174 053 01565 0000000000
1747 2613N 06235W 01523 0006 124 054 182 174 054 01564 0000000000
1747. 2614N 06233W 01525 0008 125 053 182 174 054 01568 0000000000
1748 2615N 06232W 01525 0009 125 055 182 168 056 01569 0000000000
1748. 2616N 06231W 01524 0010 124 055 186 168 055 01569 0000000000
1749 2617N 06230W 01524 0011 126 054 186 172 054 01570 0000000000
1749. 2618N 06229W 01524 0013 126 053 186 168 054 01572 0000000000
1750 2619N 06227W 01523 0013 128 051 182 168 052 01571 0000000000
1750. 2620N 06226W 01524 0014 125 051 186 156 051 01573 0000000000

[brunota2003]

wind data from the NE quad justifies only 45KT at the present time

Shows that Dvorak estimates are totally useless if you do not fix the center properly

NE quad? huh? Recon hasnt touched the NE quad...only SE and NW...and highest max winds of 58 knots found so far (flight level, for surface at 80% = 46.4 knots)...so I would expect higher numbers later...not as much as 77 or 90 knots though...
EDIT: see first post on page 6

[Stormavoider]

wind data from the NE quad justifies only 45KT at the present time

Shows that Dvorak estimates are totally useless if you do not fix the center properly

NE quad? huh? Recon hasnt touched the NE quad...only SE and NW...and highest max winds of 58 knots found so far (flight level, for surface at 80% = 46.4 knots)...so I would expect higher numbers later...not as much as 77 or 90 knots though...

They are NE now. The haven't touched the NW.

[Trugunzn]

wind data from the NE quad justifies only 45KT at the present time

Shows that Dvorak estimates are totally useless if you do not fix the center properly

NE quad? huh? Recon hasnt touched the NE quad...only SE and NW...and highest max winds of 58 knots found so far (flight level, for surface at 80% = 46.4 knots)...so I would expect higher numbers later...not as much as 77 or 90 knots though...

You dont expect this to be a hurricane

[Thunder44]

[brunota2003]

nm...wow...I've got my compass directions all screwed up...

[cycloneye]

They haved been after the first VDM going thru the NE quad.They are still going NE looking at how far from the center the windfield is.

[Lowpressure]

They are flying NE now, and no it does not appear to be a Hurricane. 991 is pretty close pressure wise- 989 area usually cane.