Area of disturbed weather SW of the Cape Verde Islands

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Remains looking very healthy as of the satellite picture of 1800Z

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

[HURAKAN]

The environment is exceptionally moist, no signs of dry air anywhere. Therefore, the convection isn't going to have a problem to develop. But the image also shows what seems to be a very sharp trough of low pressure, and that could shear the system.

[cycloneye]

A 1012 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

2:05 PM Discussion.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/html/im ... 4-1237.jpg

This area is not looking too bead either.

Loop
http://tinyurl.com/sypy4

[bob rulz]

This thing looks better than 93L...does anyone else think this should be an INVEST soon? I'm not an expert in any way, so I'm wondering who else agrees with me...

[HenkL]

[deleted]

I posted the NAMMA forecast from yesterday again. Couldn't find a new one, sorry.

[cycloneye]

A 1010 MB SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ANALYZED NEAR 13N24W. THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE W NEAR 10 KT.
MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ANALYZED POSITION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

8:05 PM Discussion

[Fego]

Any info about its path? I know is moving west, but what about the incoming days?

[WindRunner]

I've been watching this one, and yes, I agree that it should be an invest by sometime tomorrow morning, though probably not before the sun comes up over there. There is evidence of some light shear (about 15kts or so) over the system, while shear is markedly higher to the N and NW of it. Upper level divergence appears relatively healthy (that's in comparison to other TWs), though there is no low-level convergence. The lack of model support is also not very persuading for significant development at this time. Satellite presentation and the short-term SSTs are about the only things going for this system right now, and will come very close to being destroyed by the trough - one degree of latitude will make a huge difference. Currently the trough is forecast to begin a slow NW drift in about 24h and continue heading NW through about 60h, where it should be out of the way enough for this system to not have to worry about it regardless of how far west it has propogated.

[Hyperstorm]

I'm still not impressed with this system. To start, this system lacks a well-defined structure. There is no defined area of convection anywhere. Sure, there is one "ball" of thunderstorms, but very little convergence (looks more like an ITCZ squall). Second, upper-level winds are not currently favorable for development. There is a large upper trough to the NW that is imparting moderate southerly shear. Third, it has mostly merged with the ITCZ. This is not positive for immediate development as it cannot find a specific area to localize those thunderstorms in order to form a better defined LLC.

There are a couple of things that might help the system in the longer run. The system has not moved quickly over the past couple of days. Since Thursday, it has not moved more than 10 degrees in longitude. Also, it has moved WSW since emerging off the coast of Africa (possibly being pushed southward by a SAL surge). This slow movement and WSW motion have kept the system from encountering the worst of the shear to its NW. If it had kept its original speed and direction of motion, we would have seen it being shredded to pieces just about now.

Now that the system is near 10N and along the ITCZ, it should escape the strong shear as it moves westward. That being said, models are not forecasting favorable conditions. Upper winds are still expected to be moderate out of the south. Based on this, I would expect a status quo over the next few days (not much if any strengthening/weakening). When it gets to the central and western Atlantic, it could encounter more favorable conditions if it retains its current moisture levels.

I don't see any development, but if I had to say...the best chance would possibly be as it approaches the Lesser Antilles...something very similar to the pre-Ernesto tropical wave...

[Zardoz]

Hmmmm... :

[MetroMike]

If that system near the Leeward Islands is'nt already a depression right now I would be very surprised.

[WindRunner]

Wrong thread . . . this piece of nothing around 30W is what we're talking about here - note the trough that is clearly evident to it's north:

[MetroMike]

I know thats what you all are talking about...does not look like much compared to the invest near the Leewards.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS is trying to develop this area:

[WindRunner]

Interesting . . . now it develops this one just as much as the one about to come off of Africa . . . very interesting. Definately appears to be a situation similar to Ernesto setting up here in the models.

[CrazyC83]

This looks awful - the one over Africa still looks better than this blob. No need to rush 94L onto it.

[Sanibel]

Seems to be developing a twist this morning.

[Sanibel]

Think I put the wrong coordinates on the last thread.

There's possibly a curl at 7.5N - 32.5W