Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[TampaSteve]

Recon didn't found winds greater than 61kts so no hurricane at 5.

Really? Good news for Bermuda, then...hope I'm wrong about a 'cane...

[CrazyC83]

I'd expect it to be held.

[CrazyC83]

993/15 would translate to a 991mb actual reading?

Anyway, I think they will hold it at 70mph.

[Derek Ortt]

the winds should be dropped to what they are... 45 or 50KT

[Thunder44]

993/15 would translate to a 991mb actual reading?

Anyway, I think they will hold it at 70mph.

For every windspeed at 10kts more the calm, reported from drosponde at the supposed "eye" or "center", the pressure is estimated to be 1mb lower.

In this case, windspeed was measured at 15kts, the pressure would be 992mb.

[cycloneye]

978
WTNT31 KNHC 092032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGHTLY TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH STEADY STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...25.6 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

012
WTNT21 KNHC 092033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 64.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 90SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 225SE 100SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 64.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.8N 65.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 35SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 225SE 100SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 65.5W...APPROACHING BERMUDA
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 100SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W...NORTH OF BERMUDA
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 275SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...350NE 350SE 150SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 49.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 64.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TampaSteve]

Keep weakening, Florence!

[cycloneye]

085
WTNT41 KNHC 092045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
FLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME
IN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS
FOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.

AFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
PHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME
MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING
NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN
TO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 25.6N 64.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 26.8N 65.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 28.7N 65.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 30.8N 65.5W 85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA
48HR VT 11/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA
72HR VT 12/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 14/1800Z 49.0N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Scorpion]

This is crazy. Every global forecasted at least Cat 3. Last week we thought Cat 4. Now will this even make hurricane? My god, even 1997 had a major.

[Thunder44]

TPC discussion said some mid-level shear got into the system this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

TPC discussion said some mid-level shear got into the system this afternoon.

Derek talked earlier this afternoon about the 15kt shear.

[cinlfla]

This is crazy. Every global forecasted at least Cat 3. Last week we thought Cat 4. Now will this even make hurricane? My god, even 1997 had a major.

I know but for the sake of Bermuda I'm kinda glad shear has kept Florence at bay. This season so far has been terrible for tracking I can't think of not one storm this year that's had a decent center to track.

[Thunder44]

TPC discussion said some mid-level shear got into the system this afternoon.

Derek talked earlier this afternoon about the 15kt shear.

I can see upper-level shear sometimes on visible imagery with the high clouds blowing off. But how do you see mid-level shear? It always looks invisible to me.

[Scorpion]

It seems like mid-level shear is doing every potentially decent storm in this year. It killed Chris, messed up Ernesto bad near Cuba, and is now getting at Florence.

[Derek Ortt]

mid level shear is very hard to see on satellite imagery

Bets way to see it is to determine if the MLC is decoupled from the LLC. If that is the case, there is MLS

[JonathanBelles]

next recon is at 2 am, correct?

[Thunder44]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 08 SEP 2006

Code: Select all

SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z SEP 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-101

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
       FLIGHT ONE                   FLIGHT TWO
       A. 09/1800Z                  A. 10/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0206A FLORENCE      B. AFXXX 0306A FLORENCE
       C. 09/1515Z                  C. 10/0200Z
       D. 26.2N 63.8W               D. 27.7N 64.7W
       E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2100Z      E. 10/0430Z TO 10/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. TEAL 70                   G. TEAL 71

Another flight scheduled to leave tonight at 10pm and arrive in the storm by 2am.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 PM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...26.1 N...64.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[hiflyer]

Was supposed to be a launch at 02Z...anyone know if it has gone??