Recalling Fabian...Flo's little bro from 2003

[Mac]

While I've never been a big fan of the notion that hurricane forecasts should be based upon hurricane behavior of the past, I happened across some information that I found rather interesting. Hurricane Fabian, which was the worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in half a century, has some rather interesting similarities to Flo...

First, read this description of the synoptics guiding Fabian as he treked through the Atlantic...

"As we moved into the month of September, and the end of the Labor Day holiday weekend, it appeared that more good news was on the way as the various computer models were indicating that a trough would move into the Eastern portion of the United States, and erode the western flank of the subtropical ridge. Living up to expectation, a trough to move into the East, and bring a lot of rain to the Northeast for several days. However, it was good news for those in the Caribbean, and the Southeastern United States."
http://www.hurricaneville.com/fabian.html

Interestingly, and sadly, 12 people were killed by tropical systems in Canada in 2003...the year of Fabian.

Take a gander at Fabian's track...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fabi ... _track.png

Now, take a look at Fabian's track overlaid on SSTs...



And SSTs are again more than warm enough to feed the beast. In fact, it would appear that the SSTs are 1 to 2 degrees warmer now than they were for Fabian.



Now, that's kind of where the similarities end. Take a look at Fabien off the coast of the eastern U.S.



As you can see, Fabian was just a lil' tyke compared to big sister Flo. If Flo gets this close to the eastern U.S., I would imagine she will cause much more havoc than her baby brother did.

Anyway, I just found this kind of interesting...

[terstorm1012]

Fabian was, however, a far better organized system as opposed to Florence, who is lookin' a big hot mess this morning (and every morning since she was born.)

[Mac]

True enough, but she has time...and more favorable conditions in her future.

[hiflyer]

Mac...thanks a lot for doing the research on Fabian...very nicely done! I had the chance to be on Bermuda just after working with the airport on cleanup...while the infrastructure on the island survived they were still clearing up damage months and months later. While Florence, so far, is a far weaker storm it is also a far larger one which could very well put lousy conditions over the island for 24-36 hrs....a very long time to be on a small rock with trop storm and higher winds rattling your cage.