Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Jim Cantore]

Is Florence influcing this in any way?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is Florence influcing this in any way?

Yes inducing NW'rly shear over the system.

here is a close up of 93L:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 22N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

2:05 PM Discussion.

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.459
ABNT20 KNHC 092119
TWOAT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking good today...Also with a area of convection right over the well defined LLC.

[Zardoz]

Will the "sleeper" (which seems to have a center of rotation at 9N 46W) pass to the south of it with little or no effect on it, or will there by some shearing, either way?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 9N-25N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
EARLIER THIS WEEK THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS HAS DEFINITELY SEPARATED ITSELF. A 1013 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
15N-22N BETWEEN 49W-54W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

8:05 PM Discussion

[Blown Away]

Is this system likely to go out to sea?

[cycloneye]

Is this system likely to go out to sea?

Yes,the models go out to sea.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is this system likely to go out to sea?

Yes,the models go out to sea.

Actually Nogaps keeps this area moving west. The bamm models are not good models for this systsem as it is above 20 north.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

[O Town]

Link not working South. Access Forbidden.

[SouthFloridawx]

Link not working South. Access Forbidden.

That's weird it's working for me.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

Go to this site
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Under the Atlantic basin header click on

Late-cycle track guidance

[Brent]

You have to copy-paste the link. It'll work that way.

[Noah]

Ngaps has it going west, and why has NHC not picked up on it?

[SouthFloridawx]

Ngaps has it going west, and why has NHC not picked up on it?

NHC has the low currently moving west on the 805 TWD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 9N-25N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
EARLIER THIS WEEK THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS HAS DEFINITELY SEPARATED ITSELF. A 1013 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
15N-22N BETWEEN 49W-54W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[Hyperstorm]

System appears to be on track to do something. Currently taking cyclonic form under loosening winds aloft.

Depression by Monday...

[boca]

Looks like 93L will be a fish too. Good for us in the US.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 100256
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

WWWW

[Steve H.]

Not so sure this will go out to sea following Florence. Florence is increasing her distance from 93L and heights should rise in her wake, which typically would keep a system in this situation on a westward course. That assumes 93L survives the next 48 hours.....but I believe she will.

[boca]

Wouldn't 93L follow the weakness caused by Florence?