TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

[TheEuropean]

376
URNT12 KNHC 100539
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/05:24:10Z
B. 27 deg 00 min N
065 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1275 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 300 deg 045 kt
G. 230 deg 029 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 16 C/ 1831 m
J. 22 C/ 1828 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 45 KT SW QUAD 05:12:30 Z


Wow, 981mb, will likely upgraded to a hurricane later this morning.

[CrazyC83]

I think they will on the 2pm advisory or a special advisory. I'd estimate it at 75kt.

[TheEuropean]

I think they will on the 2pm advisory or a special advisory. I'd estimate it at 75kt.

Why 75kt? Wait for more recon data, may be 65kt at this time.

[Scorpion]

Finally she is strengthening. I say Flo can hit 960's tomorrow or lower.

[CrazyC83]

I think they will on the 2pm advisory or a special advisory. I'd estimate it at 75kt.

Why 75kt? Wait for more recon data, may be 65kt at this time.

981 + satellite estimates. That is my personal estimate.

[HurricaneBill]

But since there is recon, satellite estimates won't be used.

[Thunder44]

2AM Advisory is out. It's a 75mph hurricane!

[theworld]

Here I believe is the center, as i've marked w/black dot from VDM.

[theworld]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 100554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
200 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...FLORENCE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FLORENCE A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...27.1 N...65.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[WxGuy1]

Finally some strengthening... The outflow (particularly in the western semicircle) has looked very good today. I've come to associate the "scalloped" appearance characterizing the outflow in the western half of Florence to moderate to strong intensification. The very large size of the wind field is likely keeping the winds a tad lower than would be expected for a ~980mb storm. Fortunately for Bermuda, Florence's resistance to strengthening up to now has likely spared the island from being battered by a major hurricane. The window is pretty small now for further intensification. That said, it may pick up some intensity solely from an increase in forward speed as the upper-level trough to its northwest picks it up and zooms it north-northeastward. Of course, this would be a highly asymmetric response, with stronger winds to the right of the path and weaker to the left (which is good for portions of the Canadian coast which may otherwise have felt Florence more strongly).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where is the data that supports the upgrade? Frances had lower millibars in was a tropical storm. Heck last few years I'v seen storms supportive of cat3 pressures not even tropical storms.

[Thunder44]

Where is the data that supports the upgrade? Frances had lower millibars in was a tropical storm. Heck last few years I'v seen storms supportive of cat3 pressures not even tropical storms.

I haven't seen any minobs since 524z. That's just as they were passing through the center.

[Coredesat]

There was a dropsonde and a status report 15 minutes ago, but nothing else.

[WxGuy1]

There was a dropsonde and a status report 15 minutes ago, but nothing else.

Until the report of 84kts at flight-level just received, which validates the Cat 1 intensity.

[Thunder44]

Supplementary Vortex just came out. There's a report of 84kts winds at flight level.

[HURAKAN]

TWC are still talking about TS Florence and using the 11 PM information, and we though FEMA was late to react to the latest news!!!

[Thunder44]

TWC are still talking about TS Florence and using the 11 PM information, and we though FEMA was late to react to the latest news!!!

That's because it's on tape. Just before 2pm they had announced it was upgraded. They are no longer live.

[WxGuy1]

TWC are still talking about TS Florence and using the 11 PM information, and we though FEMA was late to react to the latest news!!!

I've noticed that TWC occassionally goes into a "loop" mode during the overnight hours (particularly when no significant weather is affecting the US; well, when no significant weather is affecting the population centers in the eastern US). If you notice the times when voices crack, etc, you'll see that the sometimes aire the 1100pm-1200am hour for the next several hours (until the early morning crew starts live at like 5am). I've noticed this before, and I assume that's what's going on now.

[Zardoz]

Pretty pattern:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Still headed northwest...