Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

I'm going to bed. Later.

[TheEuropean]

517
URNT11 KNHC 100705
97779 07034 10284 6671/ 18300 36050 14149 /2449
RMK AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 11


No MinObs

[EDR1222]

She sure has had a mind of her own. She did look a little sheared late Saturday evening, but that doesn't look like the case so much now.

Hopefully she spares Bermuda a real bad blow.

[superfly]

Ragged eye

[Zardoz]

...Hopefully she spares Bermuda a real bad blow.

Looks like it's drifting west a little, which means the eye may pass the island on that side, and they'll get the worst part of the storm.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Maybe more than a "little", huh? It may get to 70W yet...

[TheEuropean]

683
UZNT13 KNHC 100718
XXAA 60078 99284 70667 07986 99002 25616 36041 00016 25617 36042
92699 21448 00561 85430 17626 36055 88999 77999
31313 09608 80703
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 12
62626 SPL 2838N06674W 0706 MBL WND 01052 AEV 20604 DLM WND 00555
001875 WL150 01050 079 =
XXBB 60078 99284 70667 07986 00002 25616 11950 22215 22913 21050
33850 17626 44811 14200
21212 00002 36041 11992 01052 22982 01057 33976 01052 44948 00551
55938 00559 66926 00561 77875 36057 88811 36051
31313 09608 80703
61616 AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 12
62626 SPL 2838N06674W 0706 MBL WND 01052 AEV 20604 DLM WND 00555
001875 WL150 01050 079 =

[TheEuropean]

813
URNT12 KNHC 100800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/07:29:10Z
B. 27 deg 33 min N
065 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2935 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 034 deg 055 kt
G. 304 deg 069 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 9 C/ 3062 m
J. 17 C/ 3051 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE, SW
M. E03/50/40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 05:36:20 Z

[TheEuropean]

MinObs are coming in again.


883
SXXX50 KNHC 100808
AF301 0306A FLORENCE HDOB 33 KNHC
0754. 2632N 06422W 03047 0083 217 046 116 048 047 03175 0000000000
0755 2631N 06421W 03049 0085 218 045 112 050 045 03178 0000000000
0755. 2630N 06420W 03048 0085 217 043 110 054 044 03178 0000000000
0756 2629N 06418W 03047 0086 214 042 110 054 043 03179 0000000000
0756. 2627N 06417W 03049 0088 215 041 112 054 041 03181 0000000000
0757 2626N 06415W 03047 0089 216 042 112 058 042 03180 0000000000
0757. 2625N 06414W 03049 0090 217 042 114 062 042 03184 0000000000
0758 2623N 06413W 03048 0090 219 043 116 062 043 03182 0000000000
0758. 2622N 06411W 03047 0092 216 043 118 068 043 03184 0000000000
0759 2621N 06410W 03049 0093 217 044 120 066 044 03187 0000000000
0759. 2620N 06408W 03048 0094 218 042 120 066 042 03187 0000000000
0800 2618N 06407W 03048 0096 217 043 118 078 043 03189 0000000000
0800. 2617N 06406W 03048 0097 220 043 116 070 044 03190 0000000000
0801 2616N 06404W 03048 0098 220 044 120 056 044 03191 0000000000
0801. 2614N 06403W 03101 0103 217 042 116 060 044 03248 0000000000
0802 2613N 06401W 03326 0127 216 040 096 064 041 03498 0000000000
0802. 2612N 06400W 03654 0152 214 037 078 042 038 03853 0000000000
0803 2611N 06359W 03963 0177 209 038 060 026 038 04187 0000000000
0803. 2609N 06358W 04243 0176 203 037 040 014 038 04489 0000000000
0804 2608N 06357W 04490 0182 205 036 028 001 037 04756 0000000000

[Normandy]

Looks pretty ragged imo...not a high chance of much more intensification now...but then again who knows.

[TheEuropean]

902
SXXX50 KNHC 100818
AF301 0306A FLORENCE HDOB 34 KNHC
0804. 2606N 06356W 04719 0210 207 037 014 027 038 05014 0000000000
0805 2605N 06356W 04950 0237 202 036 000 045 037 05272 0000000000
0805. 2603N 06355W 05188 0254 196 037 017 077 038 05529 0000000000
0806 2602N 06354W 05398 0272 197 038 033 089 038 05758 0000000000
0806. 2600N 06353W 05580 0285 201 037 045 107 037 05953 0000000000
0807 2559N 06352W 05773 0301 197 034 061 113 035 06163 0000000000
0807. 2557N 06352W 06016 0320 197 034 073 129 034 06425 0000000000
0808 2556N 06351W 06218 0328 198 034 085 195 034 06636 0000000000
0808. 2554N 06350W 06385 0339 204 034 095 227 035 06813 0000000000
0809 2553N 06349W 06546 0352 207 033 105 149 033 06987 0000000000
0809. 2551N 06348W 06690 0364 215 035 111 111 035 07143 0000000100
0810 2549N 06347W 06841 0376 218 036 123 123 037 07307 0000000100
0810. 2548N 06346W 06975 0388 220 038 135 135 038 07453 0000000100
0811 2546N 06346W 07017 0393 218 038 141 141 038 07500 0000000100
0811. 2544N 06345W 07018 0398 219 037 139 139 038 07506 0000000100
0812 2542N 06343W 07014 0400 223 036 143 265 037 07504 0000000000
0812. 2540N 06342W 07012 0404 222 037 141 331 037 07506 0000000000
0813 2538N 06341W 07015 0407 218 036 141 345 036 07513 0000000000
0813. 2536N 06340W 07011 0410 217 035 141 315 035 07512 0000000000
0814 2534N 06339W 07011 0413 221 035 141 309 035 07515 0000000000

[TheEuropean]

pressure down to 978mb.

[TheEuropean]

915
SXXX50 KNHC 100828
AF301 0306A FLORENCE HDOB 35 KNHC
0814. 2531N 06337W 07011 0414 223 035 143 303 035 07516 0000000000
0815 2529N 06336W 07011 0415 222 034 145 301 035 07517 0000000000
0815. 2527N 06335W 07011 0417 222 033 145 301 034 07519 0000000000
0816 2524N 06334W 07011 0419 222 032 143 299 033 07520 0000000000
0816. 2522N 06332W 07011 0418 224 032 145 307 032 07521 0000000000
0817 2520N 06331W 07010 0421 222 032 145 299 032 07521 0000000000
0817. 2517N 06330W 07011 0421 220 031 145 299 032 07523 0000000000
0818 2515N 06329W 07010 0422 221 031 145 297 031 07523 0000000000
0818. 2512N 06327W 07009 0422 220 029 145 301 030 07521 0000000000
0819 2510N 06326W 07010 0423 221 028 145 303 028 07524 0000000000
0819. 2508N 06325W 07012 0424 220 029 145 305 029 07527 0000000000
0820 2505N 06323W 07009 0424 222 028 145 315 028 07524 0000000000
0820. 2503N 06322W 07011 0425 223 027 145 309 028 07526 0000000000
0821 2500N 06321W 07011 0424 223 027 147 311 027 07526 0000000000
0821. 2458N 06319W 07011 0426 222 026 149 311 026 07528 0000000000
0822 2456N 06318W 07011 0426 218 027 145 321 027 07528 0000000000
0822. 2453N 06317W 07010 0427 217 027 143 355 027 07528 0000000000
0823 2451N 06316W 07009 0428 219 026 141 349 026 07528 0000000000
0823. 2449N 06314W 07013 0427 220 026 145 349 026 07531 0000000000
0824 2446N 06313W 07010 0428 220 027 139 353 027 07530 0000000000

[AussieMark]

whats 84 kts equal to at the surface?

[TheEuropean]

whats 84 kts equal to at the surface?

with 80% 84kt at flight level are 67kt at the surface.

294
SXXX50 KNHC 100838
AF301 0306A FLORENCE HDOB 36 KNHC
0824. 2444N 06312W 07009 0428 221 026 135 369 026 07528 0000000000
0825 2441N 06310W 07011 0429 215 025 135 383 026 07531 0000000000
0825. 2439N 06309W 07010 0430 210 025 135 369 025 07531 0000000000
0826 2436N 06308W 07011 0429 211 025 135 371 025 07531 0000000000
0826. 2434N 06307W 07009 0428 213 025 135 379 025 07528 0000000000
0827 2432N 06305W 07010 0427 218 024 135 379 025 07528 0000000000
0827. 2429N 06304W 07011 0428 214 025 135 379 025 07531 0000000000
0828 2427N 06303W 07011 0429 212 025 137 379 025 07531 0000000000
0828. 2425N 06302W 07010 0428 214 024 135 375 024 07529 0000000000
0829 2422N 06300W 07011 0428 213 024 135 383 025 07530 0000000000
0829. 2420N 06259W 07011 0429 213 024 135 385 024 07532 0000000000
0830 2417N 06258W 07010 0428 212 024 135 369 024 07530 0000000000
0830. 2415N 06256W 07011 0430 209 023 135 375 023 07532 0000000000
0831 2413N 06255W 07010 0430 205 022 133 375 022 07532 0000000000
0831. 2410N 06254W 07010 0430 207 024 137 353 024 07532 0000000000
0832 2408N 06253W 07011 0430 208 024 141 333 024 07532 0000000000
0832. 2405N 06251W 07010 0429 210 023 137 349 023 07530 0000000000
0833 2402N 06250W 07010 0429 211 022 135 343 022 07531 0000000000
0833. 2401N 06249W 07010 0429 212 021 135 357 021 07531 0000000000
0834 2358N 06248W 07011 0430 213 021 135 357 022 07533 0000000000

[TheEuropean]

195
URNT11 KNHC 100832
97779 08314 10242 62900 70100 21023 64831 /5763
RMK AF301 0306A FLORENCE OB 19
LAST REPORT


MISSION OVER

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 10, 2006


...Hurricane Warning issued for Bermuda as Florence continues to
strengthen...

at 500 am...0900 UTC...the government of Bermuda has replaced the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning
for Bermuda. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 27.7 north...longitude 65.7 west or about 320 miles...
520 km...south of Bermuda.
Florence is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr
...And a turn toward the north is expected later today. The center
of Florence is expected to pass very near Bermuda on Monday
morning. However...tropical storm force winds could reach the
island of Bermuda this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...130
km/hr...with higher gusts. Florence is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours...and Florence is expected to intensify to
a category two hurricane as it passes Bermuda.

Florence remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles...415 km.

Based on a report from reconnaissance aircraft...the estimated
minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet will be possible along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island.
Florence is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8
inches over Bermuda...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions... including strong
rip currents...are already affecting Bermuda...as well as the
northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...
Hispaniola and the Bahamas. These conditions will begin to affect
areas of the East Coast of the United States this morning. See
statements from local Weather Service offices for details on
coastal conditions.
Repeating the 500 am AST position...27.7 N...65.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80
mph. Minimum central pressure...976 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Mainelli

[Thunder44]

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 27

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 10, 2006



latest satellite infrared imagery indicates that Florence has
strengthened during the early morning hours. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft surveyed Florence and measured an 84 kt
maximum flight level wind in the northeast quadrant at 0536z. This
wind equates to approximately 67 kt at the surface. At that time
the central pressure was 981 mb. On the next pass...the eye sonde
minimum pressure was 978 mb with 18 kt surface winds...and the
central pressure is now estimated to be 976 mb. Over the last 12
hours...the pressure has fallen about 17 mb. Florence is expected
to continue to strengthen for the next 24 hours or so before it
encounters increasing shear and cooler SSTs. By 72 hours...
Florence should become extratropical as it merges with a short-wave
in the westerlies.
The initial motion is 330/13. The forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged. Florence is now nearing the western extent of the
subtropical ridge and is expected to turn toward the north later
today. The official track forecast is a blend of the GFS...
UKMET...and GFDL solutions...and is shifted slightly to the west of
the previous track.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/0900z 27.7n 65.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.0n 65.9w 80 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 31.0n 66.0w 95 kt
36hr VT 11/1800z 33.5n 65.0w 90 kt
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.4n 63.2w 80 kt
72hr VT 13/0600z 42.5n 56.0w 65 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 14/0600z 47.0n 49.0w 60 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/0600z 50.0n 37.0w 50 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Franklin

[Thunder44]

5am Advisory has the pressure at 976mb, because the drosponde reported back a 18kt wind.

[Sanibel]

Seems cyclones don't develop until they head north this year. That is telling you something about conditions in the CV belt.


Starting to look like real possibility of a total bust year in 2006 due to ocean-wide Atlantic hostility.

[AussieMark]

that sounds very much like El Nino actually

u don't get as many systems in deep tropics during El Nino