Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

131
WTNT31 KNHC 101138
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BERMUDA DETERIORATING SOON...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...
495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER
OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA.

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

EYE see you!!!

Big eye developing!!!

[HURAKAN]

NEXT RECON????

[cycloneye]

NEXT RECON????

Departs from St Croix around 10:45 AM EDT.

[JonathanBelles]

ill do the flight until 12:15 and maybe later if possible

[JonathanBelles]

what satelitte are you using, florence is off of the floater./

[skysummit]

what satelitte are you using, florence is off of the floater./

That's Ramsdis.

[JonathanBelles]

what satelitte are you using, florence is off of the floater./

That's Ramsdis.

link?

[skysummit]

what satelitte are you using, florence is off of the floater./

That's Ramsdis.

link?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[KatDaddy]

Flo is rapidly intensifying. You can see 3 convective bursts in the developing eyewall. Winds already being reported as high 35kts in Bermuda. Bermuda is in for a ride.

[Stormavoider]

what satelitte are you using, florence is off of the floater./

That's Ramsdis.

link?

This works.

[wxwatcher91]

[conestogo_flood]

Latest Conditions
At The Bermuda International Airport
Recorded at 8:55 am
Mostly Cloudy
Temp.: 27°C/81°F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: E 21 G26 kt

[CronkPSU]

looks like it is turning extratropical already

[Stormavoider]

looks like it is turning extratropical already

What makes you say that?

[Thunder44]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2006 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 28:26:33 N Lon : 65:38:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 974.1mb/ 82.2kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.8 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Latest CI# gives a 4.7 with winds of 82.2 kts.

[Stormavoider]

Why "Weakening Flag : ON "?

[Sanibel]

Looks like bad structure but the winds are increasing.

[storms in NC]

It has moved to the west a little in the last few frames. I know it is a wobble.If it would move just a little more maybe they will not get it so bad I hope.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its going through a RIC this morning. The outflow has improved over all quads, with a very well developed Anticyclone. The eye convection is forming all around the eye. While the eye is becoming clearer. Reds all the way around the eye right now. I would say its at about 80-85 knots now. If it keeps going like it is by 12 to 18 hours we will have a major.