NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

#1 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:43 am

WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 29N 122E 29N 127E 22N 119E 23N 116E 29N 122E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 51N 180E 40N 180E 36N 155E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 51N 131E NNE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 22N 124E WSW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 28N 162E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 38N 106E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 47N 174E ESE 15 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 51N 131E TO 51N 135E 51N 139E.
COLD FRONT FROM 51N 131E TO 47N 131E 41N 127E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 124E TO 29N 128E 33N 130E 39N 132E 42N
138E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WindRunner · #2 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:18 am

For those who care, this is Invest 94W per NRL and them and the JTWC are ignoring it. NRL gives it 15kt winds and JTWC has yet to issue a TCFA, despite its presentation on sat imagery.

#3 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:32 am

Up 30kts now. Shanshan is the next name.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 14.3N 137.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 53N 133E SIBERIA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 133E TO 54N 137E 53N 141E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 133E TO 48N 133E 43N 131E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 29N 121E 29N 128E 22N 120E 24N 117E 29N 121E
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 142E
46N 150E 56N 163E 56N 180E 40N 180E 38N 160E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 29N 163E NORTH SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 21N 124E WSW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 47N 176E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 124E TO 28N 129E 34N 132E 38N 134E 42N 135E
44N 140E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Jim Cantore · #4 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:34 pm

P.K. wrote:Up 30kts now. Shanshan is the next name.

Shanshan??? how is that pronounced?

#5 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:35 pm

isnt it shanskan?

#6 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:02 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:
P.K. wrote:Up 30kts now. Shanshan is the next name.

Shanshan??? how is that pronounced?

Sounds like "San-San" to me. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/wnp/tcname.html

bostonseminole · #7 Postby **bostonseminole** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:53 am

this one could be headed for southern Japan..

#8 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 4:34 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 16.1N 135.5E POOR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 17.8N 133.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT

WindRunner · #9 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 7:49 am

Just three hours later it's down to 1002hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 16.4N 135.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 18.4N 132.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT

WindRunner · #10 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 7:52 am

JTWC now have this as a TD, 14W. Forecast to reach 60kts in 72h.

#11 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 8:12 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 18.8N 132.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 121200UTC 19.8N 130.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 131200UTC 20.0N 127.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

WindRunner · #12 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:10 pm

Upgraded to 40kts. Forecast to become STS in 24h and a typhoon in less than 48h.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 17.7N 134.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 19.9N 131.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 121800UTC 20.7N 128.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 131800UTC 20.8N 125.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

#13 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:16 pm

That 40kt is 10min sustained - would be like 50-55kt to us.

#14 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:32 pm

I noticed the typhoon model was being rather aggressive with this earlier.

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.6N 134.3E -007HPA +009KT
T=12 18.4N 133.4E -008HPA +011KT
T=18 18.9N 132.5E -011HPA +014KT
T=24 19.3N 131.9E -013HPA +024KT
T=30 19.8N 131.0E -021HPA +023KT
T=36 20.2N 130.3E -027HPA +034KT
T=42 20.5N 129.4E -034HPA +039KT
T=48 20.5N 128.4E -034HPA +041KT
T=54 20.4N 127.5E -036HPA +039KT
T=60 20.2N 126.9E -041HPA +045KT
T=66 20.0N 126.4E -044HPA +048KT
T=72 19.8N 126.0E -044HPA +047KT
T=78 20.1N 125.5E -044HPA +046KT
T=84 20.3N 125.1E -043HPA +048KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=

Actually it is more like 46kts in a one minute average.

wxmann_91 · #15 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:45 pm

Anybody got close up satellite images of Shanshan besides the NRL images? I'm going to try to avoid depending on the Floaters again. :roll:

WindRunner · #16 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:45 pm

Well, I was hoping someone would answer you Jim, but it looks like a no. The only ones that I know of beyond NRL (which will update as long as someone puts out position updates on a system), the only ones I know of are the SSD and RAMSDIS at Colorado State, but the RAMSDIS is restricted-access. Beyond that, I know of nothing.

Upgraded to 45kts at 11/0000Z. Now forecast to become a typhoon in just over 24h. Should be a fairly potent system by 72h.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 18.1N 134.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 20.2N 131.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 130000UTC 20.9N 128.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 140000UTC 21.0N 126.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

Track points between Taiwan and Luzon at 72h.

bob rulz · #17 Postby **bob rulz** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:54 pm

Luckily at the moment this looks like it's going to recurve before it reaches China. They don't need anymore tropical cyclones out there.

However, this is already very close to typhoon intensity. It's had some pretty impressive strengthening.

bostonseminole · #18 Postby **bostonseminole** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:04 am

May head up to Korea, they've also had flooding problems

wxmann_91 · #19 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:47 am

FWIW, the NOGAPS goes bonkers on this system:

bostonseminole · #20 Postby **bostonseminole** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:56 am

talk about making a sharp turn!

NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

NW Pacific: Typhoon Shanshan (0613)

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