Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Zardoz]

Almost due north now:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Sure hope the eye passes to the east of Bermuda and gives those people a slight break.

[Thunder44]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2006 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 28:30:53 N Lon : 65:38:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.9mb/ 79.6kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.6 4.8 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : -5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

CI# down a bit to 4.6. Cloud tops warmed some around the eye.

[WindRunner]

If I remember right, that is also saying that the numbers are being held back a little bit by the constraints, as usually nothing is listed under the "CI Rules" section.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system is becoming better organized as time go by. For one the Cdo is becoming more round 2# The eye is clearing. This is normal for systems at this lat to not hold super deep convection. But overall the system is starting to look like a major.

I say 85 knots now.

[JonathanBelles]

ill be doing the obs including the USAF and vortex. How do i know when dropsonde's are done and when suplementaries are done?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope to god its 10:45am?

[JonathanBelles]

I hope to god its 10:45am?

yes

[Evil Jeremy]

plane should take off right about now.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER BERMUDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON
BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.7 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[JonathanBelles]

plane should take off right about now.

im waiting for the first obs

[Brent]

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 65.9W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 225SE 175SW 475NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 65.9W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...225NE 120SE 90SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 150SE 90SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 100SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.1N 61.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...240NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 48.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 65.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EYEWALL THAT WAS
PARTIALLY OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
NOT INCREASED FROM OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
70 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC
TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND FLORENCE
WILL BE TRAVERSING SSTS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD
BE A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR BERMUDA.
AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD
IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER... FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ONCE IT UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN IS
BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS
FLORENCE IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM.
AT 5 DAYS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
REQUIRING SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CREATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 28.7N 65.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.7N 65.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 35.4N 63.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 38.1N 61.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z 48.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Thunder44]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2006 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 28:35:14 N Lon : 65:46:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 974.1mb/ 82.2kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.7 4.9 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : -7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[JonathanBelles]

weakening flag is off again

[JonathanBelles]

does S2k have their own recon page? just wondering.

[WindRunner]

Yes . . .

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[JonathanBelles]

Yes . . .

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

thanks. this way i can stay on storm2k.

[JonathanBelles]

969
SXXX50 KNHC 101454
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 01 KNHC
1441 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 316 236 000 00000 0000000000
1441. 1742N 06447W 00000 0002 360 000 320 230 000 00000 0000000000
1442 1742N 06447W 00000 0001 360 000 344 228 000 00000 0000000000
1442. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 346 230 000 00000 0000000000
1443 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 336 230 000 00000 0000000000
1443. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 330 232 000 00000 0000000000
1444 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 326 232 000 00000 0000000000
1444. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 312 232 000 00000 0000000000
1445 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 300 226 000 00000 0000000000
1445. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 298 228 000 00000 0000000000
1446 1742N 06448W 00000 5003 360 000 294 228 000 00000 0000000000
1446. 1742N 06448W 00000 5005 360 000 292 228 000 00000 0000000000
1447 1742N 06448W 00000 5007 360 000 288 230 000 00000 0000000000
1447. 1742N 06449W 00000 5010 360 000 288 232 000 00000 0000000000
1448 1742N 06449W 00001 5011 360 000 292 230 000 00000 0000000000
1448. 1742N 06449W 00003 5013 360 000 296 230 000 00000 0000000000
1449 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 304 232 000 00000 0000000000
1449. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 318 232 000 00000 0000000000
1450 1742N 06449W 00003 5013 360 000 326 230 000 00000 0000000000
1450. 1742N 06449W 00004 5015 360 000 312 228 000 00000 0000000000

[Thunder44]

So are we going to use this thread for the recon reports or the old one?

[JonathanBelles]

i was going to to use this one for a new flight unless you have a problem with that.