Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Scott_inVA]

and we're in the northwest section of the box......I'm not totally familiar with the H-box.....does this mean anything for us in the NE Caribbean?

20n-60w is the box.

Yep. 20N/60°W is also referred to as "the benchmark".

Approx 65% of TCs that cross 20/60 to the south and west (or, in the SW Quad) landfall along FL or the East Coast. I think the percentage is closer to 80-85% landfall or are near miss (200 miles). The Benchmark does *not* imply the intensity of a TC but merely the potential for landfall.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[edit by Scott: Invest 93L at 0Z Sun was 21.7°N/51.2°W or NNE of The Benchmark]

[Zardoz]

its a fish look at the models, I guess Florence has created a weakness in its wake.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

That's pretty amazing considering that it's moving SSW right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

This is going to be really interesting. Will it suddenly hang a hard right and follow the models' tracks? Or will it keep on it's present heading toward's Hebert's first box?

[curtadams]

That statistic is for tropical cyclones, though. This isn't a cyclone yet. It's certainly not true that ever *wave* that goes through the Hebert box has a 65% chances of impacting FL/EC (if it develops) because they basically all go through it. At present, this is still just a wave.

[BatzVI]

Thank you all for your thoughts......cyclone....do you have any new stats from SSD????....would be interested in the current position....or, is there a place where I can look it up myself?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That statistic is for tropical cyclones, though. This isn't a cyclone yet. It's certainly not true that ever *wave* that goes through the Hebert box has a 65% chances of impacting FL/EC (if it develops) because they basically all go through it. At present, this is still just a wave.

It has a low pressure system/elongated LLC at 20 north/54 west...You can see it on visible. So its not a waves, its really a tropical distrabance.

[Irina]

Hey,
Did someone say this is moving SSW? Looks so from the sats........
thanks
irina

[curtadams]

I don't see any kind of LLC (you can get a pretty good view on the Flo floater). No N wind, for starters. In any case, many, many waves develop low pressure systems without ever becoming official cyclones, so the point is that the Hebert box statistics don't apply. My impression is that most waves that develop have a low by the time they get this far west, but they certainly don't go 2/3's to FL/EC.

(edit: typed in S wind instead of N originally)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not really shear is hitting the convection from the northwest...Which is shearing the convection southward. While the LLC is moving westward.

[Scott_inVA]

Current as of 09/10/06, 10AM EDT:



Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Derek Ortt]

I have found that 25/70 works far better than 20/60 for determining which systems hit the USA. Few exceptions to that rule

[curtadams]

I don't see it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html No north wind and the west wind is only affecting high clouds. I won't exclude a storm-relative LLC obscured under the clouds, but you can't see one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its a broad flow north to south low level circ. It was pretty defined Friday night but it has become elongated. It now looks like a curle near 20/54...I would expect if one to form near there.

[Thunder44]

Bouy 41040 is just south of this system and it reports ENE winds this morning. It looks like a open wave at the surface.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There maybe one closer to 19.5/53.5...Under the MLC/deep convection. But overall it looks weak. Also that buoy is over 5 degrees from any center=250 to 300 miles.

[storms in NC]

Don't look for this to do much till the Hurricane moves farther away.

[Scott_inVA]

I have found that 25/70 works far better than 20/60 for determining which systems hit the USA. Few exceptions to that rule

Before Isabel, DT showed me his collection of charts and research on a 25°/60° Benchmark...which he uses in tandem with placement of a CONUS trof...equally interesting. While I agree 25° tends to be very reliable, it is ~24-30 hours closer to CONUS.

I'd urge folks not to simply use any benchmark/box as a reason to board up or go into weenie freak-out mode. Downstream synoptics are equally, if not more important to the ultimate track of a landfalling EC TC.

Good discussion!

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Downdraft]

its a fish look at the models, I guess Florence has created a weakness in its wake.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

I love your confidence considering the models you base your statement on. I wouldn't bet a nickel on the Bamm suite above the deep tropics myself.

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT
WELL ORGANIZED...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[hial2]

HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES..
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCh

How will this high affect 93l???

[TheRingo]

seems to be moving sw and has lost latitude since last run.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early3.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png