Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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#681 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:What is NHC doing?

Why are they using 80% of 700mb? Are there dropsondes that I have missed?


My guess is they got that data too late; it had already been written when the 96kt came out. I'm in agreement with you in that it is a Category 2 storm (I have estimated it at 90kt but that may be a bit high - I am guessing there are stronger winds out there not measured)
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#682 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:53 pm

367
SXXX50 KNHC 101754
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 19 KNHC
1741 3015N 06445W 03048 0067 149 058 096 082 059 03156 0000000000
1741. 3016N 06443W 03048 0068 149 059 100 078 060 03157 0000000000
1742 3018N 06442W 03048 0071 151 060 100 076 061 03159 0000000000
1742. 3019N 06440W 03045 0072 148 057 098 080 058 03158 0000000000
1743 3020N 06439W 03051 0073 145 056 106 078 057 03165 0000000000
1743. 3021N 06437W 03045 0073 144 056 106 076 057 03159 0000000000
1744 3023N 06436W 03051 0079 145 054 106 076 055 03170 0000000000
1744. 3025N 06435W 03052 0084 144 057 106 070 057 03177 0000000000
1745 3026N 06437W 03047 0081 142 054 106 070 056 03169 0000000000
1745. 3025N 06439W 03046 0075 138 053 104 076 054 03161 0000000000
1746 3025N 06442W 03048 0073 137 055 100 076 056 03162 0000000000
1746. 3025N 06444W 03048 0073 137 054 100 072 055 03162 0000000000
1747 3026N 06447W 03048 0072 140 054 102 076 055 03161 0000000000
1747. 3026N 06449W 03048 0072 141 052 098 082 054 03160 0000000000
1748 3026N 06451W 03048 0069 140 051 096 078 052 03158 0000000000
1748. 3026N 06454W 03048 0068 139 051 096 070 052 03157 0000000000
1749 3027N 06456W 03047 0067 138 051 096 068 051 03154 0000000000
1749. 3027N 06459W 03048 0065 138 053 100 078 054 03154 0000000000
1750 3027N 06501W 03048 0065 137 053 100 076 054 03153 0000000000
1750. 3027N 06503W 03050 0064 135 052 098 072 052 03154 0000000000
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#683 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:53 pm

no pasch put out the advisory too soon.
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#684 Postby whereverwx » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:55 pm

She is huge.

Image
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#685 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:55 pm

Even if it weakens in the next three hours, I can guarantee you it will go down as a Category 2 hurricane in the post-storm report. We have the data to back it up after all...
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#686 Postby curtadams » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:56 pm

I'm guessing Pasch saw the weak winds in the south wall and decided to send out the pre-written advisory. Remember he'd need to go through the whole package to edit winds and some comments, on a very tight schedule, if he waited for the N wall sample. The S wall being open (on vortex comments) should have tipped us off that those winds would be way low but it seems we all missed it.
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#687 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:56 pm

I dont think Dr Pasch put out this advisory
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#688 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:58 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 101755
XXAA 60187 99304 70648 11504 99000 28237 12034 00502 ///// /////
92687 22206 13045 85419 18229 14052 70069 10632 14054 88999 77999
31313 09608 81746
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 10
62626 SPL 3047N06481W 1750 MBL WND 12542 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 60188 99304 70648 11504 00000 28237 11922 22005 22850 18229
33751 14656 44707 11836 55697 10030
21212 00000 12034 11984 12042 22961 12546 33928 13045 44905 14050
55850 14052 66697 14054
31313 09608 81746
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 10
62626 SPL 3047N06481W 1750 MBL WND 12542 AEV 20604 =
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#689 Postby curtadams » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I dont think Dr Pasch put out this advisory

very possibly:
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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#690 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:59 pm

All I can say for those in Bermuda: forget the official advisory. Treat this as a Category 2 right now and consider it still strengthening.
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#691 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:59 pm

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#692 Postby Normandy » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:02 pm

Still looks pretty horrible, suprised its still intensifying
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#693 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:03 pm

412
SXXX50 KNHC 101805
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 20 KNHC
1751 3027N 06506W 03046 0063 134 053 098 074 054 03150 0000000000
1751. 3028N 06508W 03049 0061 133 052 096 066 053 03151 0000000000
1752 3028N 06511W 03048 0061 131 053 098 066 053 03149 0000000000
1752. 3028N 06513W 03048 0060 130 055 096 068 056 03148 0000000000
1753 3028N 06516W 03050 0058 129 056 096 068 056 03149 0000000000
1753. 3029N 06518W 03045 0057 127 056 102 066 057 03142 0000000000
1754 3029N 06521W 03051 0056 127 058 102 066 059 03147 0000000000
1754. 3029N 06523W 03049 0055 126 060 108 070 060 03144 0000000000
1755 3029N 06526W 03048 0054 124 060 106 072 060 03143 0000000000
1755. 3029N 06528W 03045 0053 122 058 096 076 059 03139 0000000000
1756 3030N 06531W 03049 0059 126 058 090 076 058 03140 0000000000
1756. 3030N 06533W 03050 0040 125 059 092 074 059 03140 0000000000
1757 3030N 06536W 03048 0039 125 059 096 072 060 03137 0000000000
1757. 3030N 06538W 03048 0039 122 058 092 074 060 03138 0000000000
1758 3031N 06541W 03049 0039 120 057 086 076 057 03139 0000000000
1758. 3031N 06544W 03046 0039 118 056 086 076 057 03136 0000000000
1759 3031N 06546W 03050 0038 117 057 084 078 058 03138 0000000000
1759. 3031N 06549W 03046 0037 117 057 084 080 057 03133 0000000000
1800 3032N 06551W 03048 0036 114 057 086 084 057 03135 0000000000
1800. 3032N 06554W 03049 0037 111 055 094 082 056 03137 0000000000
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#694 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:04 pm

That report of 96kt FL wind came in before 1:30 before the advisory was sent. Also, if they didn't get that report, I don't see why TPC would increase the winds since there was no pressure change from earlier. That wouldn't seem to be a storm that got stronger.
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#695 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:05 pm

I think I may know why the winds were not increased

a dropsonde was so unimpressive that it appears as if it fell out of the eyewall
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#696 Postby marcane_1973 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:05 pm

Normandy wrote:Still looks pretty horrible, suprised its still intensifying
I find it pretty hard to believe myself.
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#697 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:06 pm

Normandy wrote:Still looks pretty horrible, suprised its still intensifying


Looks pretty decent for a lower-category hurricane.
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#698 Postby Normandy » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:06 pm

It looks like a storm that has entrained a basin full of dry air
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#699 Postby Buck » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:08 pm

Yes, I've seen much worse for a Cat 1 Hurricane.
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#700 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:08 pm

Even if the 96 was discarded, you still have a bunch of 93s and 94s, which still back up a 100mph estimate...

At their flight level, 92 would support a Cat2.
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