Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[CrazyC83]

Sort of reminds me of the shape and form of Isabel at landfall...

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

[superfly]

They probably used 0.8 conversion.

[Thunder44]

[CrazyC83]

88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

[Derek Ortt]

if they used a .8 conversion WITHOUT dropsondes or other data to back that up, that would be incorrect due to the 700mb flight level (just like using 90% of 850 or 1500 feet would be incorrect without other data)

[Thunder44]

I think it looks like most Cat 1 hurricanes out of the tropics.

[cycloneye]

194
SXXX50 KNHC 101814
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 21 KNHC
1801 3032N 06556W 03046 0036 110 053 096 080 054 03133 0000000000
1801. 3032N 06559W 03048 0037 109 051 092 090 051 03135 0000000000
1802 3032N 06601W 03048 0037 109 050 090 090 051 03136 0000000000
1802. 3033N 06604W 03048 0037 108 051 090 090 051 03136 0000000000
1803 3033N 06606W 03049 0037 108 050 090 090 050 03136 0000000000
1803. 3033N 06609W 03047 0037 109 050 090 090 050 03134 0000000000
1804 3033N 06611W 03049 0038 107 050 090 088 051 03138 0000000000
1804. 3033N 06614W 03048 0038 104 051 090 088 052 03137 0000000000
1805 3034N 06617W 03047 0039 102 051 094 086 051 03137 0000000000
1805. 3034N 06619W 03049 0039 100 050 090 086 050 03139 0000000000
1806 3034N 06622W 03047 0040 102 050 092 084 050 03137 0000000000
1806. 3034N 06625W 03045 0041 099 048 092 084 049 03137 0000000000
1807 3035N 06627W 03047 0042 097 047 090 084 048 03140 0000000000
1807. 3035N 06629W 03046 0043 093 046 088 086 046 03139 0000000000
1808 3035N 06632W 03051 0044 087 042 092 080 045 03146 0000000000
1808. 3035N 06634W 03050 0044 081 038 096 076 039 03145 0000000000
1809 3035N 06636W 03047 0044 079 040 096 074 041 03142 0000000000
1809. 3036N 06639W 03047 0046 081 040 094 074 041 03143 0000000000
1810 3036N 06641W 03047 0047 079 039 100 070 040 03144 0000000000
1810. 3036N 06644W 03048 0046 081 039 098 076 040 03144 0000000000

[Thunder44]

941
WHXX01 KWBC 101803
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060910 1800 060911 0600 060911 1800 060912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.2N 66.1W 30.7N 66.3W 32.3N 65.9W 34.0N 64.6W
BAMM 29.2N 66.1W 30.4N 66.3W 31.5N 66.0W 32.3N 65.1W
A98E 29.2N 66.1W 31.2N 66.3W 32.8N 65.8W 34.6N 63.6W
LBAR 29.2N 66.1W 31.1N 66.1W 33.2N 65.8W 35.3N 64.9W
SHIP 80KTS 86KTS 89KTS 86KTS
DSHP 80KTS 86KTS 89KTS 86KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060912 1800 060913 1800 060914 1800 060915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.1N 61.7W 40.8N 50.4W 45.3N 37.8W 48.0N 25.5W
BAMM 33.3N 63.2W 34.8N 55.9W 33.9N 48.0W 34.3N 44.7W
A98E 36.5N 59.9W 44.7N 49.8W 50.5N 40.2W 53.6N 29.7W
LBAR 37.4N 63.0W 42.0N 53.7W 46.6N 38.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 83KTS 76KTS 70KTS 64KTS
DSHP 83KTS 76KTS 70KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.2N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 27.1N LONM12 = 65.2W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 25.1N LONM24 = 64.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 225NM

$$

18z Models still keep her at 80kts.

[WindRunner]

Boooooo!





I demand they issue a discussion immediately explaining why they did this!

[Thunder44]

[CrazyC83]

Boooooo!





I demand they issue a discussion immediately explaining why they did this!

I agree. If she weakens before 5pm, I think she will be declared Cat2 in the final report.

[CrazyC83]

Canadian Hurricane Centre had the 75kt data from early afternoon but that's all...they are a bit behind...

WOCN31 CWHX 101800
HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SUNDAY
10 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE FLORENCE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES MOVING NORTH...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.1 N AND LONGITUDE 65.8 W... ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES OR 385 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975
MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH AT 11 KNOTS... 20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 10 3.00 PM 29.1N 65.8W 975 75 139
SEP 11 3.00 AM 31.2N 65.7W 970 90 167
SEP 11 3.00 PM 33.6N 64.8W 965 95 176
SEP 12 3.00 AM 36.3N 62.8W 973 85 157
SEP 12 3.00 PM 39.4N 60.0W 980 75 139
SEP 13 3.00 AM 42.1N 56.8W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 PM 44.8N 53.1W 987 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 14 3.00 AM 47.0N 48.8W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 14 3.00 PM 48.5N 43.9W 990 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 3.00 AM 49.9N 38.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 3.00 PM 51.3N 32.2W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT HOW FLORENCE WILL AFFECT LAND
AREAS OF EASTERN CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES. NOVA
SCOTIA IS LESS LIKELY TO SEE DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF LAURENTIAN FAN
OF THE MARITIME MARINE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM TUESDAY
THEN THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE TO
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME
WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE TUESDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
AROUND 1800 UTC THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD PASSING WEST OF
BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING. FLORENCE IS OVER 29-DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE BUT THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON ITS INTENSIFICATION. FLORENCE MAY APPROACH CATEGORY THREE
INTENSITY EARLY MONDAY NEAR BERMUDA. THEREAFTER..MODELS DIVERGE
WITH REGARD TO TRACK. SOME BRING THE CENTRE TO WHAT WOULD BE
POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE NEAR CAPE BRETON..WHILE OTHERS BRING IT
SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPERIENCE AND
HISTORY TELL US THAT THE LATTER SCENARIO IS MORE PROBABLE.
ALSO..THERE IS NO PROMINENT MIDLATITUDE FEATURE IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT WOULD IMPART A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
(ASIDE FROM THE STORM TROUGH ITSELF) BY THE TIME FLORENCE REACHES
ABOUT 40N. AT THIS TIME..WE CONTINUE WITH A TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE PASS 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF
THE AVALON. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM AND THE STRONG
ZONALLY-ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FAR TO THE NORTH OF IT..RAIN
AND WIND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE AND TO THE LEFT OF
THE TRACKS. IT WILL BECOME CLEARER LATER ON WHETHER THAT EXPANSIVE
AREA OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
10/18Z 245 210 95 235 75 50 20 65 40 15 15 25
11/06Z 260 230 100 225 95 75 35 65 40 40 30 30
11/18Z 280 255 100 210 100 85 45 55 45 50 40 40
12/06Z 295 290 115 205 105 100 50 60 50 55 45 40
12/18Z 310 330 140 220 115 120 50 65 45 55 40 25
13/06Z 320 345 145 245 120 135 50 70 35 50 35 0
13/18Z 325 340 140 260 115 140 45 60 30 45 20 0
14/06Z 315 325 135 245 105 135 40 45 0 0 0 0
14/18Z 300 300 120 220 90 120 40 35 0 0 0 0
15/06Z 280 280 100 200 70 80 40 30 0 0 0 0
15/18Z 260 260 80 180 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0



END ROUSSEL

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 101824
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 22 KNHC
1811 3036N 06646W 03049 0046 075 039 092 078 039 03146 0000000000
1811. 3036N 06648W 03047 0047 074 039 092 082 039 03145 0000000000
1812 3036N 06651W 03050 0046 079 039 098 074 039 03147 0000000000
1812. 3037N 06653W 03047 0046 074 038 098 074 039 03144 0000000000
1813 3037N 06656W 03049 0046 077 040 098 076 041 03146 0000000000
1813. 3037N 06658W 03045 0046 075 042 098 076 042 03141 0000000000
1814 3037N 06701W 03049 0047 071 041 094 080 041 03146 0000000000
1814. 3037N 06703W 03048 0050 074 041 092 078 041 03148 0000000000
1815 3038N 06705W 03050 0052 079 039 096 072 040 03152 0000000000
1815. 3038N 06708W 03044 0054 077 035 096 074 036 03149 0000000000
1816 3038N 06710W 03053 0056 078 036 096 080 036 03159 0000000000
1816. 3038N 06713W 03045 0058 068 033 098 076 035 03154 0000000000
1817 3038N 06715W 03051 0058 064 033 102 070 034 03159 0000000000
1817. 3039N 06717W 03045 0058 060 033 104 068 034 03154 0000000000
1818 3039N 06719W 03050 0058 061 034 106 064 034 03159 0000000000
1818. 3039N 06722W 03048 0059 058 034 104 070 035 03157 0000000000
1819 3039N 06724W 03047 0060 055 033 098 082 033 03158 0000000000
1819. 3039N 06726W 03049 0061 054 033 100 084 033 03161 0000000000
1820 3039N 06729W 03048 0061 060 031 104 074 032 03159 0000000000
1820. 3040N 06731W 03048 0061 059 030 106 072 031 03160 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

What drosponde was this?

[Thunder44]

I don't believe they had any more or different data than TPC had when they issued their 11am advisory. That's just CHC's max wind estimate.

[CrazyC83]

88kt from a dropsone it looks like. That supports 79kt at the surface.

I'm sure they will take another pass of the area.

What drosponde was this?

511
URNT11 KNHC 101747
97779 17454 10304 64600 30400 14054 10088 /3086 41340
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 08

[Nimbus]

Convection is wrapping again hope the night doesn't bring another 20 mb pressure drop. With the last wobble towards the NE its hard to say which side of Bermuda She will pass on? Be great if she headed out to sea to the south of Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

I don't believe they had any more or different data than TPC had when they issued their 11am advisory. That's just CHC's max wind estimate.

Yeah that's possible that they went a bit higher on the 11am advisory.