Trouble ahead in the Gulf? MM5 Model Thinks So

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1487
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Trouble ahead in the Gulf? MM5 Model Thinks So

#1 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:39 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

After taking a peak at the MM5, which is a good model for cyclogenesis predictions, the model shows decreasing pressures in the GOM at around 120 hours out...which is about mid week next week...we'll see....Gulf Coast residents don't need another hurricane to worry about...but we'll see....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   

User avatar
Robjohn53
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 103
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:03 pm
Location: Mims Florida

#2 Postby Robjohn53 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:47 pm

Why dose this link say animation yet it's just astill frame?
0 likes   

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1487
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

#3 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:48 pm

Click the animation button and it will animate the image....

ToddF
0 likes   

User avatar
beachbum_al
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:23 pm
Location: South Alabama Coast
Contact:

#4 Postby beachbum_al » Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:52 pm

Todd,
I hope that doesn't pin out. You are right. We don't need another storm along the Gulf Coast after the last two years. From TX to FL.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanetrack
HurricaneTrack.com
HurricaneTrack.com
Posts: 1781
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#5 Postby hurricanetrack » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:09 pm

It will probably curve out to sea between 60 and 65 west longitude :-)
0 likes   

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1487
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

#6 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:10 pm

LOL....yeah...like the rest.... :bday:
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#7 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:11 pm

I must agree the GOM is next up. Pattern change is setup for GOM trouble. I hope I am wrong.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#8 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:12 pm

KatDaddy wrote:I must agree the GOM is next up. Pattern change is setup for GOM trouble. I hope I am wrong.


no more rain! weve already had the months and the yearly rainfall
0 likes   

Josephine96

#9 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:01 pm

Well.. If "Gordon" {assuming when he forms} hits Florida.. it would be nothing new for Florida. Seems like Gordon likes Florida..
0 likes   

Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:13 pm

This is interesting




000
FXUS62 KTBW 100049
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.UPDATE...BUSY DAY WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING. KTBW WAS HIT BY
THREE SEPARATE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AIR
ALOFT...00Z SOUNDING INDICATED -9 CELSIUS AT 500 MB...COMBINED
WITH OUR MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE STORMS WITH SOAKING
RAINS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND A FEW REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN AND WILL UPDATE THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO REMOVE PRECIP WORDING WHEN SHOWERS
END. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION INLAND AS SOAKING RAINS WILL
ALLOW A FEW SPOTS TO COME DOWN IN VISIBILITY TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST OVERNIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. RIPPLES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ARE MOVING ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE GFS HAS INCONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP OVERNIGHT. WILL
CHANGE WORDING UP NORTH FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...AND KEEP WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG.

IF ABOVE SCENARIO DOES SET UP OVERNIGHT...NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL
HAVE TO BUMP POPS UP FOR SUNDAY TO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TODAY`S STORMS OVER LAND IS
HEADING TOWARDS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR OFFSHORE
WATERS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BETTER COVERAGE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL MENTION SCATTERED COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUES TO ARGUE FOR WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS TENDED TO JUST MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS...ACTIVITY WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH
RELOCATED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY NOT PRESENT THE EVENT WAS A MORE CLASSIC MID AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING ONE.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...THOUGH MODELS ARE A TAD DIFFERENT
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 18Z NAM HOLDS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER OF
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LINE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AROUND 20Z AND EASING INTO THE GULF DURING
THE EVENING. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR DEEP MOISTURE BUT MUCH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SHORT WAVES IN THE EASTERN GULF. IT ONLY HAS
EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...HAVE ROLLED TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z
EVERYWHERE WITH LOW-END IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS AS IS
TYPICAL IN THIS SITUATION.

OTHERWISE...THE LAST OF THE EVENING PRECIPITATION AND IFR VISIBILITY
SHOULD END BY 02Z LEAVING VFR SKIES WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
AVIATION...BSG
Last edited by Rainband on Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2149
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#11 Postby Steve H. » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:16 pm

I noticed that sevral models were lower heights pretty significantly in the GOM. MM5 was showing some blues today. 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re: Trouble ahead in the Gulf? MM5 Model Thinks So

#12 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:16 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2006090912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

After taking a peak at the MM5, which is a good model for cyclogenesis predictions, the model shows decreasing pressures in the GOM at around 120 hours out...which is about mid week next week...we'll see....Gulf Coast residents don't need another hurricane to worry about...but we'll see....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


Todd... It's kind of funny that you mentioned this area because I noticed how low the pressure were in the area. Below I posted the 850mb vorticity which looks like some energy or swirling over the Yuck generally moving northward. Of course we can see what happens after that because the MM5 doesn't run past 120 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

Your right though I have heard and it was recently that the FSUMM5 is good at sniffin out home brew.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#13 Postby artist » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:23 pm

I thought the mm5 was not a very good model?
0 likes   

User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

#14 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:40 am

For some unknown reason, I'm just not buying it. We'll see in a few days for sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

#15 Postby Cookiely » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:34 am

GFS still predicting the low to develope. Also, talks about being in the 60's at night. I'm not going to hold my breath. With all the rain, I feel like I'm growing mold.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 100645
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...THE RADAR IS NEARLY FREE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE GULF
AND HEAVIER SHOWERS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST WHILE LOTS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST.

LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 70
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 60 PERCENT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. IN GENERAL I AM STILL BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE BUT WELL ABOVE THE DRIER MET NUMBERS. THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO WARM A BIT SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

BY TONIGHT...THE GFS RE-ENERGIZES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE EASTWARD ALOFT. THIS LEADS
TO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT
WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS EVENTUALLY LOWERS
PRESSURES ENOUGH TO FORM A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND
THE FACT THAT THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AWAY FROM ANY LOW THAT DEVELOPS...WILL DEPICT A MUCH LESS ROBUST
SCENARIO WITH WINDS CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF...JUST
EXPECT CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD MAY START
OFF ON AN INTERESTING NOTE...AS GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEPENING MID
LEVEL TROF CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
LOOKS A BIT AGGRESSIVE...BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SFC LOW SOLUTION...
INCREASING SW FLOW...DEEP TROP MOISTURE...AND STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FL W COAST WILL SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY WED THRU AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
INLAND BY LATE DAY WITH SW FLOW. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD TAMPA BAY ON THU...THEN STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE ASSOC MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE ENE LEAVING A WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR
AXIS IN ITS WAKE. THE DETAILS OF THESE SYNOP FEATURES HAVE BEEN
VARYING TO SOME DEGREE PAST SVRL RUNS...HOWEVER THE MORE CONSISTENT
FEATURE IN THE MODEL HAS BEEN DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS DRIER AIR MAKING IT DOWN TO THE NATURE COAST
BY WEEKS END...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY REMNANTS FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH TOWARD FMY. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...40 POPS STILL WARRANTED
ON THU WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. FOR FRI AND
SAT...WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN TO 20 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR...WITH 30 POPS REMAINING TAMPA BAY SOUTH IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD A DEGREE EITHER
SIDE OF NORM...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IF GFS IS RIGHT...COULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPR
60S SAT MORN IN A FEW OF THE USUAL COOLER SPOTS NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY.

&&
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#16 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:24 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

FSU showing the development a little more clearly now. Looks to be coming off of the Yuck and slowly gets organized.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#17 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:42 pm

This from the NWS out of N.O., LA.

THERE IS ANOTHER WEATHER FEATURE THAT PEAKS THE INTEREST. A MARITIME
TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST. WHILE A
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. THESE TWO
FEATURES CONTINUE TO CAUSE LARGE AREAS OF NOCTURNAL TS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE
GULF WATERS CAUSE THE MOST INSTABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO
SPIN A VERY WEAK TROPICAL LOW UP AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL OR NE
GULF. THE DEEP RICH TROPICAL AIR MASS IS DENOTED BY CONVECTIVE
TEMPS BEING WITHIN A FEW DEGEES OF GULF WATER TEMPS. SO BASICALLY
AS SHEAR WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE...IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A WEAK
DISTURBED AREA DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. NO FEAR OF THE SYSTEM GETTING TOO WELL ORGANIZED SINCE A
COLD FRONT WILL BE SCREAMING TOWARD US AND THEREFORE QUICKLY
TUGGING ON WHATEVER WOULD DEVELOP. AT BEST IT MAY BE A RAINMAKER
FOR FOLKS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF COAST.

EXACTLY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON WHERE OR
IF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE FRONT. A FARTHER EAST DEVELOPMENT WOULD
CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO RUSH THROUGH OUR AREA BY WED MORNING. IF
THE LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST OR SOUTH OF US THEN IT WOULD ACT TO
HOLD THE FRONT UP FOR A SHORT TIME UNTIL THE LOW BECOMES
INTEGRATED WITH THE FRONT AND MOVES NE...EITHER WAY BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE SOMETIME ON WED.
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaSteve
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:05 pm
Location: Riverview, FL

#18 Postby TampaSteve » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:56 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2006091000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

FSU showing the development a little more clearly now. Looks to be coming off of the Yuck and slowly gets organized.


What is that out in the Atlantic on that image? The next hurricane, perhaps?
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:57 pm

florence's baby will be named gordon
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Argcane, Google Adsense [Bot], Landy, ljmac75 and 64 guests