Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[theworld]

Here eye is clearing again....

[cycloneye]

789
SXXX50 KNHC 101944
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 30 KNHC
1931 2836N 06443W 03045 0056 208 053 108 072 053 03152 0000000000
1931. 2838N 06443W 03049 0054 209 056 106 078 057 03154 0000000000
1932 2841N 06443W 03049 0051 213 061 104 082 062 03152 0000000000
1932. 2843N 06443W 03050 0049 214 061 098 090 062 03150 0000000000
1933 2845N 06443W 03048 0046 212 062 106 082 062 03145 0000000000
1933. 2847N 06443W 03047 0046 209 062 110 074 063 03144 0000000000
1934 2849N 06443W 03047 0044 208 062 108 086 062 03143 0000000000
1934. 2852N 06443W 03047 0044 208 060 108 084 060 03142 0000000000
1935 2854N 06443W 03050 0042 207 058 102 086 059 03143 0000000000
1935. 2856N 06443W 03048 0040 205 058 098 092 059 03139 0000000000
1936 2858N 06443W 03049 0040 207 056 096 090 058 03139 0000000000
1936. 2901N 06443W 03048 0039 203 054 096 094 055 03138 0000000000
1937 2903N 06443W 03046 0039 197 053 100 088 053 03137 0000000000
1937. 2905N 06443W 03049 0039 194 053 100 086 054 03139 0000000000
1938 2907N 06443W 03049 0038 193 056 100 086 057 03138 0000000000
1938. 2909N 06443W 03047 0036 187 059 102 082 061 03134 0000000000
1939 2912N 06443W 03049 0035 185 062 102 088 064 03134 0000000000
1939. 2914N 06443W 03050 0033 183 064 098 094 064 03134 0000000000
1940 2916N 06443W 03046 0033 184 065 090 090 066 03129 0000000000
1940. 2919N 06444W 03049 0032 185 063 090 090 063 03132 0000000000

[Thunder44]

She looks even worse now. She has the look of when dry air gets into the core. The pressure should be starting to rise soon and seems her weakening phase has already begun. Unless she can get her act together tonight she might just be a strong tropical storm when she hits Bermuda.

Recon data and satellite imagery do not show a weakening trend.

[Thunder44]

Looking at THIS It seems to be now moving east of due north.

Last two fixes from recon show a movement still NNW or just west of north.

[CrazyC83]

There are near-hurricane force winds well away from the center in the SE Quad...

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

162
SXXX50 KNHC 101954
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 31 KNHC
1941 2921N 06444W 03045 0031 182 064 094 092 064 03127 0000000000
1941. 2923N 06444W 03049 0030 182 065 094 094 065 03130 0000000000
1942 2926N 06444W 03046 0029 182 063 098 092 064 03126 0000000000
1942. 2928N 06444W 03052 0028 180 063 106 080 063 03131 0000000000
1943 2930N 06444W 03047 0028 179 064 104 084 065 03125 0000000000
1943. 2933N 06444W 03048 0027 180 065 102 080 065 03125 0000000000
1944 2935N 06444W 03048 0025 179 067 100 080 067 03124 0000000000
1944. 2937N 06444W 03051 0025 176 068 096 096 068 03127 0000000000
1945 2940N 06444W 03046 0025 175 066 098 098 067 03122 0000000000
1945. 2942N 06444W 03050 0026 174 068 094 094 069 03126 0000000000
1946 2944N 06444W 03047 0025 173 067 096 096 068 03123 0000000000
1946. 2947N 06444W 03045 0025 174 066 096 096 067 03121 0000000000
1947 2949N 06444W 03050 0025 171 067 096 096 068 03126 0000000000
1947. 2951N 06444W 03049 0026 169 067 094 094 068 03125 0000000000
1948 2954N 06444W 03046 0026 167 067 088 088 068 03123 0000000000
1948. 2956N 06444W 03049 0026 164 069 090 090 069 03126 0000000000
1949 2958N 06444W 03047 0027 165 067 092 092 068 03125 0000000000
1949. 3001N 06444W 03048 0029 162 066 092 092 067 03128 0000000000
1950 3003N 06444W 03050 0030 161 065 098 098 066 03131 0000000000
1950. 3005N 06445W 03045 0033 160 065 100 098 066 03129 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Sanibel]

That's an intensification Dvorak if I've ever seen one. Bermuda could get a surprise wacking.

[cheezyWXguy]

what are the T-numbers now on this storm?

[WindRunner]

That's an intensification Dvorak if I've ever seen one. Bermuda could get a surprise wacking.

What do you mean? The SSD estimates fell at 18Z and the CIMSS estimate isn't being run off of where the eye is as the eye is too clouded over at the present.

[cycloneye]

700
SXXX50 KNHC 102004
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 32 KNHC
1951 3007N 06445W 03049 0034 159 065 104 098 066 03134 0000000000
1951. 3010N 06445W 03049 0036 159 066 108 082 066 03135 0000000000
1952 3012N 06445W 03048 0036 157 067 108 074 068 03134 0000000000
1952. 3014N 06445W 03048 0037 157 068 110 062 069 03137 0000000000
1953 3017N 06445W 03049 0038 156 070 108 068 070 03138 0000000000
1953. 3019N 06445W 03048 0041 155 069 104 074 070 03139 0000000000
1954 3021N 06445W 03048 0043 155 067 100 070 067 03142 0000000000
1954. 3024N 06445W 03058 0044 154 065 100 062 065 03152 0000000000
1955 3026N 06445W 03048 0046 152 064 100 072 064 03144 0000000000
1955. 3029N 06445W 03048 0046 151 065 092 074 066 03145 0000000000
1956 3031N 06445W 03047 0048 152 065 094 068 066 03145 0000000000
1956. 3033N 06445W 03049 0048 153 066 096 078 066 03148 0000000000
1957 3036N 06445W 03048 0050 152 064 096 080 066 03149 0000000000
1957. 3038N 06445W 03047 0051 152 065 100 076 066 03148 0000000000
1958 3041N 06445W 03049 0052 150 065 104 072 065 03152 0000000000
1958. 3043N 06445W 03047 0054 150 066 096 086 067 03151 0000000000
1959 3046N 06445W 03049 0057 148 067 098 072 067 03157 0000000000
1959. 3048N 06445W 03048 0059 145 065 096 072 066 03158 0000000000
2000 3051N 06446W 03048 0060 143 063 098 074 063 03159 0000000000
2000. 3053N 06446W 03048 0060 142 064 100 072 065 03159 0000000000

[CrazyC83]

The hurricane winds have reached close to the periphery of Florence on the NE Quad...

[Thunder44]

[Sanibel]

Just a few hours ago the bottom half was well-formed but the top was ragged. Now the top is well-wrapped and the bottom has an inflow shape like a horn. I've seen that with storms about to go strong before. The only question is do you add the 2006 handicap to the formula and keep the top strength down or not?

Another important thing is the system they call 93L is spinning up and showing signs of development. This is like last year when every wave developed. Shows the seas are heating up. Literally in Florence's wake.


Looks like a miss to the west of Bermuda now.

[trugunz]

I think she'll reach Cat 3 intensity later this evening. Shear looks to be real low and waters are still pretty warm.

[cycloneye]

814
SXXX50 KNHC 102014
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 33 KNHC
2001 3055N 06446W 03048 0062 143 063 096 084 064 03161 0000000000
2001. 3058N 06446W 03048 0064 141 062 100 076 063 03163 0000000000
2002 3100N 06446W 03049 0064 140 063 096 082 065 03164 0000000000
2002. 3102N 06447W 03049 0066 142 063 096 096 066 03165 0000000000
2003 3105N 06447W 03046 0067 144 058 096 088 060 03164 0000000000
2003. 3107N 06447W 03050 0069 142 059 092 086 060 03170 0000000000
2004 3109N 06447W 03047 0070 141 059 094 076 059 03168 0000000000
2004. 3112N 06446W 03049 0077 141 058 096 060 058 03176 0000000000
2005 3114N 06448W 03049 0079 138 058 096 056 058 03178 0000000000
2005. 3113N 06450W 03048 0078 137 056 098 066 057 03176 0000000000
2006 3112N 06451W 03045 0071 139 054 096 076 054 03167 0000000000
2006. 3110N 06452W 03050 0069 138 053 092 078 053 03170 0000000000
2007 3109N 06453W 03047 0067 137 052 094 092 053 03164 0000000000
2007. 3107N 06455W 03049 0065 139 053 096 096 054 03164 0000000000
2008 3106N 06456W 03049 0061 134 053 090 090 053 03160 0000000000
2008. 3105N 06458W 03046 0061 136 056 100 088 058 03157 0000000000
2009 3103N 06500W 03048 0059 140 058 100 078 058 03157 0000000000
2009. 3102N 06501W 03048 0057 140 058 098 082 058 03156 0000000000
2010 3101N 06503W 03048 0055 135 057 096 086 058 03154 0000000000
2010. 3059N 06504W 03039 0054 135 058 096 090 058 03144 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

546
SXXX50 KNHC 102025
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 34 KNHC
2011 3058N 06506W 03049 0050 134 059 100 076 060 03150 0000000000
2011. 3057N 06507W 03046 0048 134 060 096 072 061 03145 0000000000
2012 3056N 06509W 03050 0047 138 061 096 082 061 03147 0000000000
2012. 3054N 06510W 03048 0045 138 058 096 082 059 03143 0000000000
2013 3053N 06511W 03048 0043 136 057 096 078 058 03142 0000000000
2013. 3052N 06513W 03047 0041 133 055 094 072 056 03139 0000000000
2014 3051N 06514W 03048 0039 136 057 094 076 058 03137 0000000000
2014. 3050N 06516W 03049 0036 138 058 092 090 059 03135 0000000000
2015 3048N 06517W 03047 0033 137 059 092 092 061 03131 0000000000
2015. 3047N 06519W 03048 0030 135 059 088 088 059 03129 0000000000
2016 3046N 06520W 03050 0029 137 061 092 092 063 03129 0000000000
2016. 3045N 06521W 03048 0026 134 063 094 090 064 03125 0000000000
2017 3044N 06523W 03046 0024 131 062 090 090 063 03120 0000000000
2017. 3042N 06524W 03050 0020 131 065 086 086 066 03120 0000000000
2018 3041N 06526W 03045 0016 135 063 086 086 064 03111 0000000000
2018. 3040N 06527W 03051 0012 134 068 090 090 071 03113 0000000000
2019 3039N 06529W 03046 0009 135 067 096 096 069 03105 0000000000
2019. 3038N 06530W 03049 0006 132 066 096 094 067 03106 0000000000
2020 3036N 06531W 03047 0003 131 066 094 094 066 03101 0000000000
2020. 3035N 06533W 03049 5002 132 066 092 092 067 03098 0000000000

[dwsqos2]

408
UZNT13 KNHC 102018
XXAA 60208 99310 70650 11515 99999 28029 11037 00508 ///// /////
92681 23016 11550 85417 19436 13055 70064 09400 88999 77999
31313 09608 82009
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 19
62626 SPL 3107N06508W 2013 MBL WND 11043 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12551
999769 WL150 11040 075 =
XXBB 60208 99310 70650 11515 00999 28029 11943 23608 22850 19436
33697 09000
21212 00999 11037 11963 10546 22943 11044 33902 12057 44874 12552
55850 13055 66697 14055
31313 09608 82009
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 19
62626 SPL 3107N06508W 2013 MBL WND 11043 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12551
999769 WL150 11040 075 =

999 mb; surface winds of 37 knots.