Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

Even though the models take it to sea, why do mnay humans think it will continue west...?

What are the "non-humans" thinking???

They think that it will follow flo and go to sea...lol...

Actually these models which aren't good at this latitude keep trending it farther west.

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree with Extremeweatherguy. Those models many are talking about are the BAM, LBAR and NHC98 models which are basically useless in this situation. Trust me, I learned the hard way from my favorite pro-met wxman57 that we should all focus only on the global models, not the aforementioned BAM and LBAR models. I personally would only want to get information from the global models. Anybody have any links to global models?

<RICKY>

[Epsilon_Fan]

This looks very impressive, it should be a depression by now

[NONAME]

the models that take it out to sea are all the models that pro mets say not to look at:

Yes that is true the Bamm is worthless in the subtropics the LBAR is just never right same goes AE98 who knows. The best models are the Globals but they dont really see this system yet. There are two likely paths that it could take in the short to mid term go north following the weaknes left by flo if it is moving faster slower would take it under a more west track. This is my first real projection on a system and I hope i got my info right.

[hial2]

Predictions on formation time now? I'm going with 11am on 9/11, as I always say the NHC likes to wait for visibles before classifying a system.

Tomorrow is 9/11..a terrible day to be happy about a storm..

[Scorpion]

I am worried that the building ridge in Florences wake will make 93 continue westward.

[Bgator]

WHy is there no recon for this system, i realize that it is pretty far away, but it may be a depression, and it may threaten the USA...though its very far out...

[canetracker]

if it should develop there is a big ridge.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Correct me if I am wrong, but that model is 144hrs from now and not eluding to 93L which, according to the TWO, is approx aroud 53W and 21N. Hopefully that ridge will not be in place yet for 93 L to traverse it.
However the building ridge, sure does look like something we will have to watch for soon.

[WindRunner]

Predictions on formation time now? I'm going with 11am on 9/11, as I always say the NHC likes to wait for visibles before classifying a system.

Tomorrow is 9/11..a terrible day to be happy about a storm..

Oh, I'm not happy about it (not sure why you think I am), but I think we can all agree it's going to get classified relatively soon.

[SouthFloridawx]

if it should develop there is a big ridge.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Correct me if I am wrong, but that model is 144hrs from now and not eluding to 93L which, according to the TWO, is approx aroud 53W and 21N. Hopefully that ridge will not be in place yet for 93 L to traverse it.
However the building ridge, sure does look like something we will have to watch for soon.

As I have learned you shouldn't look at the Surface Pressure but, you should be looking at the 500mb forecast.

GFS 18Z has the ridge building in quickly behind Flo as she moves northward. Perhaps if 93 remains as weak as it has been it can stay in the low level flow and with the help of the ridge continue its westward motion.

[cycloneye]

This is the Caribbean area pic and you can see where 93L is related to the Leeward islands.

[gatorcane]

so this system has me worried.....I think a more west track is possible but the models are bending it out to sea already...???

[hial2]

Predictions on formation time now? I'm going with 11am on 9/11, as I always say the NHC likes to wait for visibles before classifying a system.

Tomorrow is 9/11..a terrible day to be happy about a storm..

Oh, I'm not happy about it (not sure why you think I am), but I think we can all agree it's going to get classified relatively soon.

I did not mean you (or anyone else)is happy...just that the date is a terrible anniversary..I apologize if i hurt your feelings.

EDITED for spelling

[canetracker]

SouthFloridaWx: That scenario could happen, if as you say, 93L stays week, moves slow, and Flo moves out fast. Once the models get a good sense of it, we should have a better idea.

[WindRunner]

No, I just wanted to make sure that that was clear, as it is a horrible coincidence. No hard feelings.

[ROCK]

so this system has me worried.....I think a more west track is possible but the models are bending it out to sea already...???

globals havent picked up on it just yet as a closed low. You can see the indentation of a low where 93 is at. Need more runs and yes, PR needs to watch this in the near term if it continues to track west.

Plenty of potential out there but there is also plenty of shear ahead of it..


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[rainstorm]

larry cosgrove is indicating a threat to fla, if it develops

[WeatherEmperor]

larry cosgrove is indicating a threat to fla, if it develops

who is larry cosgrove? is he a local tv met for your area?

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

LC has had a good record so far this season.

[Brent]

larry cosgrove is indicating a threat to fla, if it develops

who is larry cosgrove? is he a local tv met for your area?

<RICKY>

http://hometown.aol.com/wxamerica/prof.index.html