Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sma10]

It's already at 20N with a sharp trof approaching in the wake of Florence. Nothing to drive it westward. It's almost certainly going north between 55W-60W.

Well, we'll certainly know if this is true soon enough. Tomorrow's recon estimate position is 20N 58W.....if your prediction is correct, the system will already be going north by tomorrow afternoon.

[fci]

Florence rather relentlessly traveled West or WNW; exciting many of us amatuers in the US.

Pro Mets like wxman57 kept telling us she would turn NW and then N.

I'll go with what he is saying and expect it to go fishing and, this time; not even affect Bermuda. I recall we were told "it was like talking to a wall" that Florence would not threaten the SE US.

All we need is a concensus from the Pro Mets and we can all watch this perspective Gordon from the sidelines too!

[cycloneye]

10/2345 UTC 20.3N 54.1W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[wxwonder12]

cycloneye, when you post those numbers what does that mean? Sorry for the very basic question.

[Emmett_Brown]

Great Scott!!

It appears to this mad scientist as if 93L is moving just slow enough to avoid getting captured by Florence's trough. The big question now is how long it takes Florence's trough to fill in. 48 hour GFS shows a very pronounced trough that should capture 93L... but it also shows the narrowest wisper of a ridge just above the location of 93L. (It doesnt see 93L yet).

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

The only way it could avoid capture would be if this slim ridge is enough to hold 93L on a W track until Florence moves north... and 93L would have to almost stall to allow this to happen. 93L is moving slowly W, so it still has the slimmest of chances to avoid capture...

[wjs3]

cycloneye, when you post those numbers what does that mean? Sorry for the very basic question.

Wxwonder--those are dvorak intenstiy estimates--satellite-based estimates of the storm's intensity. If you want to go into more detail on them, hop over to the "got a question" forum and post over there and someone will give you more on it.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, when you post those numbers what does that mean? Sorry for the very basic question.

The numbers mean winds that are estimated by sattelite.Here is a chart that shows the distint categorys of the numbers and the windspeeds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

TD Seven.But as always storm2k policy is to wait for the official word.

[GeneratorPower]

Yee ha.

[WindRunner]

And official from NHC:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/tcweb/i ... 072006.ren

A 25kt TD.

[gilbert88]

Bah.. and I thought this "dud season" was over.

[fci]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

TD Seven.But as always storm2k policy is to wait for the official word.

Wow.

That was fast.
Faster than any of us "experts" here expected...

[cycloneye]

:woo:

And official from NHC:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/tcweb/i ... 072006.ren

A 25kt TD.

But storm2k will wait for the text of the official word.

[Bailey1777]

So will this be a normal tropical system or is it going to be a funky ride again.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Lets watch it go fishing

[WindRunner]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072006) ON 20060911 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060911 0000 060911 1200 060912 0000 060912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 54.2W 20.8N 56.0W 21.5N 57.6W 22.2N 59.1W
BAMM 20.2N 54.2W 20.9N 56.1W 21.7N 58.0W 22.8N 59.6W
A98E 20.2N 54.2W 20.4N 55.3W 21.1N 56.7W 22.0N 58.1W
LBAR 20.2N 54.2W 20.8N 55.9W 21.7N 57.3W 22.5N 58.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060913 0000 060914 0000 060915 0000 060916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 60.4W 26.5N 62.7W 30.4N 63.1W 32.4N 59.0W
BAMM 24.3N 61.0W 27.7N 63.3W 31.4N 64.6W 35.1N 58.6W
A98E 22.8N 59.5W 26.4N 62.5W 29.5N 64.0W 33.2N 60.2W
LBAR 23.7N 59.4W 27.4N 60.6W 30.9N 60.9W 33.8N 56.9W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 59KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 54.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 53.1W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.8N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

A TS in less than 24 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

tadellos

2 forecasts tonight

[fci]

Oods are a funky ride.
At least some aspect of it will not be expected.

So far, Pro Met commenting on it says a fish and it will probably be one.
However, something wacky will certainly occur with intensity or something.

[HURAKAN]

Not very common to have a 30 mph TD. Usually the NHC waits until 35 mph.

[GeneratorPower]

They wanted to start advisories asap for some reason.