Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jhamps10]

gee talk about a suprise!!!! I did not expect this, man I leave to go camping and I come back to a hurricane nearing Breumda, and I new tropical depression (pending offical notice from NHC).

proves one thing, that this is the prime.

[brunota2003]

d it...I'm sory...but this past 6 hours have been very confuzzling... so the TCFA was upgraded to a warning less than 45 minutes after it was issued? wow...new record...

[Bailey1777]

Pretty close to the islands if it continued Westward.

[WindRunner]

d it...I'm sory...but this past 6 hours have been very confuzzling... so the TCFA was upgraded to a warning less than 45 minutes after it was issued? wow...new record...

No, they will still wait until 21Z to issue the warning, as their warnings are always (required to be?) the same as the NHC's.

[Scorpion]

The NHC acknowledges it. It is official. We have TD7.

[wxman57]

I understand what should set up, but why has it been moving W, and it is almost at 55W now, also why in the TCFA they say W-WNW is expected for 72 hours??

It has been moving westward for the same reason Florence didn't turn north until 65W - the high center to its north was driving it west. But with Florence recurving, the trof will dig southeastward toward 93L and take it northward. The Bermuda High will be even more east than when Florence recurved in a day or two. Nowhere for 93L to go but north. Here are some of the model plots:

[cycloneye]

We prefer to wait for a statement or a first advisory from NHC rather than put tltles of Tropical Depression 7 before they put out a text because it's better do it the right way and play safe,rather than go and jump to put titles and then they dont upgrade it for some reason.

[Bailey1777]

WXMAN57 why do they say W.-WNW for 72hrs. then and act like they are in a rush to upgrade? Is there a possibility for the Islands?

[SouthFloridawx]

It is funny the difference of opinions that Pro-Mets have. Mets here say this is going to recurve very soon and JB says it could end up in the SE bahamas. I wonder what he could be looking that would show such a differing opinion.

[sma10]

There's been a lot of talk about this system possibly moving w to wnw over the next 72 hrs and I know I've heard some fairly well-known mets (to be left nameless) have discussed thoughts about this system tracking towards the SE Bahamas and/or Florida, but I don't see how the NHC can do anything but forecast a northern turn quickly.

Why? Because the global models are not particularly helpful right now because none of them even see TD7; GFDL dissipates it immediately; and the BAMS turn it north fairly swiftly. My feeling is that the initial NHC discussion tonight at 11pm may be filled with uncertainties.

FWIW, I agree with wxman57 forecast. This has to turn up around 60W because of the huge weakness left behind by Florence. Of course, if it moves extremely slowly or stalls that's another matter.

[brunota2003]

Bailey1777, thats what I'm curious about to...just a little over an hour ago it was a TD could form tonight or tomorrow...then it became W-WNW for the next 72 hours according to NRL...and now TD 7 according to NRL...*scratches head*

[Evil Jeremy]

right now, this thing can go anywhere!

[MiamiensisWx]

It has been moving westward for the same reason Florence didn't turn north until 65W - the high center to its north was driving it west. But with Florence recurving, the trof will dig southeastward toward 93L and take it northward. The Bermuda High will be even more east than when Florence recurved in a day or two. Nowhere for 93L to go but north. Here are some of the model plots:

Not to be nitpicky, but as the system is still rather shallow and under weak steering currents, the models may be a bit unstable in initialization and may be off a bit in terms of accurately initializing the location of a possible LLC and steering currents, especially with a system under synoptivs and in formative stage such as this one (TD 7). Also, based on visible satellite loops and supported by this, I believe a possible LLC may form a bit further south-southwest (more near the vicinity of 20.9N and 54.9W) than indicated by the current model initialization.

In addition to this, the current models, for the large part, may not be entirely suited to the synoptic situation and initialization (e.g., LBAR, BAMMD/BAMM/BAM, etc.). It is still early in the game, in addition to this. Not questioning your synopsis, but just making some points here.

[AtlanticWind]

It is funny the difference of opinions that Pro-Mets have. Mets here say this is going to recurve very soon and JB says it could end up in the SE bahamas. I wonder what he could be looking that would show such a differing opinion.

Cause the Pro Mets cant even tell you if it is going to rain tomorrow.

Just kidding.

[sma10]

It has been moving westward for the same reason Florence didn't turn north until 65W - the high center to its north was driving it west. But with Florence recurving, the trof will dig southeastward toward 93L and take it northward. The Bermuda High will be even more east than when Florence recurved in a day or two. Nowhere for 93L to go but north. Here are some of the model plots:

Not to be nitpicky, but as the system is still rather shallow and under weak steering currents, the models may be a bit unstable in initialization and may be off a bit in terms of accurately initializing the location of a possible LLC and steering currents, especially with a system under synoptivs and in formative stage such as this one (TD 7). Also, based on visible satellite loops and supported by this, I believe a possible LLC may form a bit further south-southwest (more near the vicinity of 20.9N and 54.9W) than indicated by the current model initialization.

In addition to this, the current models, for the large part, may not be entirely suited to the synoptic situation and initialization (e.g., LBAR, BAMMD/BAMM/BAM, etc.). It is still early in the game, in addition to this. Not questioning your synopsis, but just making some points here.

Well.....the most recent model run placed the center even further South than your hypothesis at 20.2N and they still curve the cyclone sharply north between 60 and 63W.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well.....the most recent model run placed the center even further South than your hypothesis at 20.2N and they still curve the cyclone sharply north between 60 and 63W.

I was referring to the larger portion of most of the model guidance. Sorry for not clarifying.

[Bgator]

Looking at this Image below, i see the center near 19.8 54.8, or somwhere in that general vicinity...

[brunota2003]

ok...who changed the title? Current title: Tropical Depression 7 Analysis,Sat Pics,Model Thread
We havent seen any advisories or STDS yet...

[sma10]

I was referring to the larger portion of most of the model guidance. Sorry for not clarifying.

I don't necessarily disagree with your points. It's just that for tonight's initial discussion, the NHC has relatively little to go by in terms of model guidance anyway. From what I can see, none of the globals even believe there's anything there, so the forecasters just have the BAMS and a look at the current synoptic set-up to go by. I will be SHOCKED if tonight's forecast shows a long-term W or WNW movement.

[cycloneye]

I recieved a private message from one of our resident pro mets with official information that NHC will iniciate advisories on TD 7 at 11 PM EDT.Based on that the title has been changed to TD 7.