Remnents of Typhoon Ioke

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#81 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:37 am

Image

http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/arhdata/sat/hrpt/latest/4abf.jpg

Based on the linked picture (at 9:13Z) I'd say it was around 57N and 165.5W. Should make "landfall" later today.

And yeah, pojo, I'm hoping this will make it into the (lower) states as well, just because that'd be a great ending to this system's journey.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#82 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:42 am

Not a bad guess for position, OPC bulletin (to be issued in a little over an hour :lol: ), clipped for ex-Ioke:

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OFB 1145 UTC SEP 08 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE
PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E TO 30N 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SEP 08.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 09.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SEP 10.

.WARNINGS.

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 58N 166W 969 MB MOVING E NE 15 KT AND SLOWING AFTER 12
HOURS....THEN TURNING SE 15 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. WINDS 40 TO 50 KT
SEAS 22 TO 30 FT WITHIN 420 NM SW AND 300 NM W QUADRANTS...E OF
176W. ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 40 KT SEAS 14 TO 25 FT WITHIN 480 NM
SW SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W QUADRANT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N 161W 973 MB WITH FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
60N 148W TO 57N 142W TO 45N 142W. FORECAST WINDS 30 TO 45 KT
SEAS 17 TO 29 FT WITHIN 420 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE FORECAST
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 10 TO 21 FT FROM 49N TO 58N BETWEEN 155W
AND 176W AND WITHIN 120 NM NE OF FRONT...N OF 58N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N 155W 984 MB WITH FRONT EXTENDING FROM
58N 139W TO 51N 131W TO 43N 139W. FORECAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT
SEAS 14 TO 26 FT WITHIN 480 NM SW AND S QUADRANTS.

. . .

0 likes   

User avatar
Pebbles
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1994
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)

#83 Postby Pebbles » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:21 am

Wonder if we gonna get a visit here in chicago-land from Ioke. Wonder what kinda weather Ioke would bring here. Nothing like wake island thankfully. :P But would be kinda cool to get a few breezes from the pacific *winks*
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#84 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:10 am

After somewhat of a "center reformation", if you will, around 09/08 00Z, ex-Ioke has moved much more east than north, currently at 58N/162W and 978mb/45kts per the snippet of OPC bulletin below. Should head SE across the peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days, where it is forecast to be much weaker.

Image

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/fz ... sf.ep1.txt
http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/poes.php
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#85 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 4:54 pm

Final ACE: 82.3875.

Final HDP: 81.5800.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#86 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 10, 2006 4:59 pm

Well then, since you bumped this . . . :cheesy:

Code: Select all

FZPN01 KWBC 101611
HSFEP1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OFB 1745 UTC SEP 10 2006
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE
PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E TO 30N 160E.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SEP 10.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 11.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SEP 12.

.WARNINGS.

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 54N 152W 988 MB MOVING E 10 KT. WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 8 TO
14 FT FROM 49N TO 52N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT WITHIN 600 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS. ALSO WINDS TO
25 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 360 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 54N 175E
TO 47N 170W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 54N 147W 1000 MB. FORECAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KT SEAS 10 TO 14 FT WITHIN 360 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE
FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 13 FT WITHIN 900 NM SE
OF A LINE FROM 57N 143W TO 44N 165W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N 140W 1016 MB. FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT FROM 40N TO 55N BETWEEN 142W AND 132W.


Still heading east, though should continue to weaken in the Gulf of Alaska/Northern EPAC.
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#87 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:02 pm

Ummm... that's not the Northern WPAC, but I know what you mean. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#88 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:23 pm

What isn't the Northern WPAC? I don't know what you are talking about . . .

:wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaSteve
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:05 pm
Location: Riverview, FL

#89 Postby TampaSteve » Sun Sep 10, 2006 5:51 pm

Round and round she goes...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34009
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#90 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:06 pm

senorpepr wrote:Final ACE: 82.3875.

Final HDP: 81.5800.


That a world record?
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#91 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Final ACE: 82.3875.

Final HDP: 81.5800.


That a world record?


Probably not. There are some WPAC storms that probably are higher.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#92 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:54 pm

senorpepr wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Final ACE: 82.3875.

Final HDP: 81.5800.


That a world record?


Probably not. There are some WPAC storms that probably are higher.


I agree. Do you have the stats on them?
0 likes   

User avatar
Aslkahuna
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4550
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
Location: Tucson, AZ
Contact:

#93 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:59 pm

If possible, check to see if the ACE for STY Rita in 1972 was higher.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#94 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 8:25 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:If possible, check to see if the ACE for STY Rita in 1972 was higher.

Steve


Actually, STY Rita was significantly lower: 49.4025
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#95 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 8:26 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Final ACE: 82.3875.

Final HDP: 81.5800.


That a world record?


Probably not. There are some WPAC storms that probably are higher.


I agree. Do you have the stats on them?


I'm actually processing a TON of ACE and HDP figures over the past 30 years. I'll keep my eye out.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#96 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:10 pm

Sweet Mike!

BTW what does HDP mean?
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#97 Postby senorpepr » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:21 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Sweet Mike!

BTW what does HDP mean?


Hurricane Destruction Potential. Essentially, it is calculated the same way as ACE, but instead of a measure of 6-hrly winds at or above 35kt, it's at or above 65kt.
0 likes   

craptacular
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
Location: The Mad City, WI

#98 Postby craptacular » Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:39 pm

I apologize if a recent update has been posted, but I didn't see one anywhere else ...

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?storyID=123027027

The first teams on the ground at Wake Island found that about 70% of the buildings were "moderately to severely" damaged. The runway lights are gone, there is no running water, and the power system is seriously damaged. All in all, it's still better than most people feared.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#99 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:09 pm

They dodged the worst part of the storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#100 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:15 pm

craptacular wrote:I apologize if a recent update has been posted, but I didn't see one anywhere else ...

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?storyID=123027027

The first teams on the ground at Wake Island found that about 70% of the buildings were "moderately to severely" damaged. The runway lights are gone, there is no running water, and the power system is seriously damaged. All in all, it's still better than most people feared.


and they still haven't found that "french meteorlogist" :hehe: :hehe: :hehe:
Last edited by CronkPSU on Thu Sep 14, 2006 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib and 49 guests