Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[brunota2003]

I recieved a private message from one of our resident pro mets with official information that NHC will iniciate advisories on TD 7 at 11 PM EDT.Based on that the title has been changed to TD 7.

Ok...thank you, I figured it was a mod since this thread was started by one...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok upper level Enviroment is becoming much more faverable tonight, with the upper low at 23/63 moving away from the system. A upper level Anticyclone=large area of decreasing upper level shear is forming over our depression right now. At 30 knot decreases or 5 to 8 knots over the system. Heck this system has the most faverable enviroment, this year has given a new system yet. With the upper level low to the northwest it could form a outflow jet on that side of the system...Making the system more faverable for a RIC, once the system becomes organized enough.

As for track all levels of the Atmopshere...As Wxman57 pointed out show the edge of the high pressure system at around 60-62 west. This area is very sharp. The weakness that is picking up Florence. Heck Florence its self is a weakness just like Henri of 2003. I just don't see how this could do anything else but turn northward. Unless Florenece gets out of here like 70 mph...In the ridge forms in super fast.

So I would say west-northwest for another 24 hours...Fellowed by a northly track then after. Also I expect a more faverable enviroment for this.

[fci]

d it...I'm sory...but this past 6 hours have been very confuzzling... so the TCFA was upgraded to a warning less than 45 minutes after it was issued? wow...new record...

Maybe because September 10th is officially the "Peak" of the is season so it was only right to have 2 systems today.

[TheShrimper]

Glad you have the inside scoop from the NHC. Please post more often so we do not have to wait for official notification.

[HURAKAN]

TD #7 ROCK-&-ROLLS!!!

[conestogo_flood]

Everyone is over here, and Florence is receiving no attention. So odd how quickly everyone's favourite's can change.

[GeneratorPower]

We're Americans, conestogo. We're fickle, eh?

[abajan]

right now, this thing can go anywhere!

Let's pray it doesn't go anywhere near Bermuda. One hit per year is bad enough, IMHO!

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looking at the models, as far as presures, the high is not going to be there, this has no choice but to turn north very soon.

[wxman57]

Let's take a look at some mean level winds to get an idea where TD7 will and won't go. I've made 3 mean 400-700mb streamline graphics, indicating the position of TD 7 on each graphic with yellow arrows indicating steering currents in its path.

10pm tonigth:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon3.gif

10pm Monday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon4.gif

10pm Tuesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon5.gif

As you can see from the graphics, there's very little chance of this system tracking westward toward the Bahamas or the east U.S. Coast.

The ECMWF sees the same pattern as the GFS -- ridge well east of TD 7 and northward motion east of Florence's track.

As for JB, he tries to develop every disturbance and take it to the east coast. Maybe he wants it to strike the east coast to verify his pre-season forecast, but TD 7 isn't likely going that way unless it can propel itself.

Don't sound so disappointed (some of you) that this developing storm won't likely affect any land areas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Let's take a look at some mean level winds to get an idea where TD7 will and won't go. I've made 3 mean 400-700mb streamline graphics, indicating the position of TD 7 on each graphic with yellow arrows indicating steering currents in its path.

10pm tonigth:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon3.gif

10pm Monday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon4.gif

10pm Tuesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon5.gif

As you can see from the graphics, there's very little chance of this system tracking westward toward the Bahamas or the east U.S. Coast.

The ECMWF sees the same pattern as the GFS -- ridge well east of TD 7 and northward motion east of Florence's track.

As for JB, he tries to develop every disturbance and take it to the east coast. Maybe he wants it to strike the east coast to verify his pre-season forecast, but TD 7 isn't likely going that way unless it can propel itself.

Don't sound so disappointed (some of you) that this developing storm won't likely affect any land areas.

JB said he expected this to head west at 4-5 degrees a day and be in the SE bahamas by later this week under a building high. Now, his thoughts may have changed between then and now, but that is just what he said earlier.

[Bgator]

Ok so according to your maps, this should be going North right now, at this moment, yet it is heading w-wsw....I agree that it should turn north tomorrow, but you never know..

[gilbert88]

AS LONG AS this storm takes a quick recurve and goes fishing, I hope it can at least become a Hurricane.

It it dares to approach any populared land, hope it gets torn apart by shear and/or dry air.

[Grease Monkey]

JB said he expected this to head west at 4-5 degrees a day and be in the SE bahamas by later this week under a building high. Now, his thoughts may have changed between then and now, but that is just what he said earlier.

Just curious. When was the last time JB was right?

[GeneratorPower]

Can I beg you all not to start the JB debate in here?

[Normandy]

Let's take a look at some mean level winds to get an idea where TD7 will and won't go. I've made 3 mean 400-700mb streamline graphics, indicating the position of TD 7 on each graphic with yellow arrows indicating steering currents in its path.

10pm tonigth:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon3.gif

10pm Monday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon4.gif

10pm Tuesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon5.gif

As you can see from the graphics, there's very little chance of this system tracking westward toward the Bahamas or the east U.S. Coast.

The ECMWF sees the same pattern as the GFS -- ridge well east of TD 7 and northward motion east of Florence's track.

As for JB, he tries to develop every disturbance and take it to the east coast. Maybe he wants it to strike the east coast to verify his pre-season forecast, but TD 7 isn't likely going that way unless it can propel itself.

Don't sound so disappointed (some of you) that this developing storm won't likely affect any land areas.

JB said he expected this to head west at 4-5 degrees a day and be in the SE bahamas by later this week under a building high. Now, his thoughts may have changed between then and now, but that is just what he said earlier.

I wouldn't attack JB and accuse him of -removed- when nearly everyone this year who has made a forecast on a storm this year has busted at some point.

And as for your track, I agree but you recurve this too soon imo as it is not heading NW right now like you indicate.

[fci]

Thanks, wxman57 for the great, early analysis.

Like I said earlier, it will be another one I will happily watch from the sidelines!

Now, anyone for an over/under bet as to how many times he will have to repeat the statement 'it will turn north' or something along those lines??

The WALL will be out for the Pro Mets to be talking to for the next few days with lots of "I see it going West, not North" and "Look at that wobble, it is going SW" etc....

[wxman57]

JB said he expected this to head west at 4-5 degrees a day and be in the SE bahamas by later this week under a building high. Now, his thoughts may have changed between then and now, but that is just what he said earlier.

JB always looks for the worst-case scenario then plays it up like it's the most likely scenario. It's not likely that TD 7 will track west 4-5 deg/day and reach the Bahamas. Of course, if all the models are wrong, then such a track is possible. But I'll lay my money on a northward turn in short order and very little westward progress. We'll see who's right.

[Grease Monkey]

*starts marinating the crow just in case*.

[JonathanBelles]

the baby always gets all the attention