Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #361 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:32 am

Looking at satellite loops I would say this is a tropical storm now. 35-40 knots. Can't wait for the t numbers.

bostonseminole · #362 Postby **bostonseminole** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:02 am

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 SEP 2006 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 20:12:01 N Lon : 54:31:18 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1012.0mb/ 25.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -56.9C Cloud Region Temp : -49.8C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Thunder44 · #363 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:59 am

Dvorak T-numbers up this morning:

11/0600 UTC 20.7N 55.4W T2.0/2.0 07L

StrongWind · #364 Postby **StrongWind** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:58 am

Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak T-numbers up this morning:

11/0600 UTC 20.7N 55.4W T2.0/2.0 07L

But convection appears to have decreased - at least on IR. And the umbilical cord to moma has been cut.

Thunder44 · #365 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:03 am

StrongWind wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak T-numbers up this morning:

11/0600 UTC 20.7N 55.4W T2.0/2.0 07L
But convection appears to have decreased - at least on IR. And the umbilical cord to moma has been cut.

5am advisory increased winds to 35mph.

kenl01 · #366 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:06 am

Don't think it's any major concern.
One the global models forecast dissipation due to shear, and if not, then it should remain at sea.
I don't expect much excitement from this system.

"IN
FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

Bgator · #367 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:25 am

First Visible is coming in, you can see the center is clearly moving west, i would say 270-280, just to side with the nhc so far, the llc is on north side of storms...

#368 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:10 am

#369 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:16 am

Visible McIDAS imagery locates the center near 20.9N/56.4W. Since it was near 20N yesterday, I'd say it isn't moving to the west. Center is exposed to the northwest of the convection due to NE shear from Florence's outflow.

#370 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:34 am

11/1145 UTC 20.9N 56.3W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic Ocean

#371 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:36 am

Here's a close up shot of 7:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon6.gif

#372 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:38 am

Surprise surprise, another sheared system.

#373 Postby **Noah** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:39 am

Looks like another fish :fishing:

Thunder44 · #374 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:40 am

860
NOUS42 KNHC 102350 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
750 PM EDT SUN 10 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-103 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE... ADDED.
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 11/1600Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 1730Z TO 2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 6 HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Did anybody post this already? There was one flight added last night for this afternoon to this system. It should leave at noon and arrive at 2pm EDT.

boca · #375 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:42 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It looks like fish TD7 is moving NW now,its not the best shot of the system becasue the floater is jumping around too much and you can;t tell which direction its going.

#376 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:43 am

Anybody that knows, How rapid is the fill in of high pressure behind a hurricane with minimal intensity? The weakness caused by Flo must fill in behind the system, is it gradual or more like water filling in a hole? Just not as convinced this is a fish as I was with Flo. Models really do not have a handle on this well.

#377 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:860
NOUS42 KNHC 102350 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
750 PM EDT SUN 10 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-103 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE... ADDED.
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 11/1600Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 1730Z TO 2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 6 HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Did anybody post this already? There was one flight added last night for this afternoon to this system. It should leave at noon and arrive at 2pm EDT.

That was posted last night at 8:00 PM at page 12 but that's ok that you posted it again for a reminder about today's flight.

boca · #378 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:47 am

Good point low pressure but isn't like being in a boat which is causing the wake and if you look behind you see the wake back atleast 100 feet,wouldn't that be the same with air currents.

#379 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:50 am

I am picturing upwelling of the ocean, but in the air, as to how I would think it looks. More of a settling rather than a rush. I am not sure. If it settles than it makes perfect sence that it is a weakness TD7 would follow. TD7 would follow a sheared environment it's whole, short life.

Thunder44 · #380 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:55 am

903
WHXX01 KWBC 111250
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072006) ON 20060911 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060911 1200 060912 0000 060912 1200 060913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 56.1W 21.5N 57.8W 22.3N 59.3W 23.3N 60.7W
BAMM 20.9N 56.1W 21.7N 57.8W 22.7N 59.2W 24.0N 60.2W
A98E 20.9N 56.1W 21.7N 58.0W 22.7N 59.6W 24.2N 60.9W
LBAR 20.9N 56.1W 21.9N 57.7W 22.9N 58.7W 24.2N 59.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060913 1200 060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 62.2W 27.7N 65.0W 30.8N 66.5W 34.9N 62.9W
BAMM 25.6N 60.9W 29.0N 61.5W 31.9N 61.2W 34.8N 57.6W
A98E 25.7N 61.8W 29.6N 62.3W 32.4N 60.9W 34.7N 55.4W
LBAR 25.7N 60.2W 29.3N 60.7W 33.0N 59.1W 35.2N 53.6W
SHIP 54KTS 65KTS 68KTS 68KTS
DSHP 54KTS 65KTS 68KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.9N LONCUR = 56.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 54.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 53.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

12z Models initialize at still a TD with winds 30kts and moving WNW at 9kts, pressure 1009mb. Ships take it to hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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