Just Past the Peak - US Looking in Great Shape Right Now

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well we are just past the peak of a season that has been full of ULLs, troughs, and fish storms..- so much different than last year.

I looked long and hard across the Atlantic and I just don't see anything that could threaten the US mainland anytime soon. This is great news for us as we need a break. The door for the Cape Verde season is slowly shutting as it typically takes 2 weeks for anything to traverse the Atlantic (and by that time we are near October and troughs are stronger) - note we cannot leave out the Leeward islands as they are closer to the Cape Verde area.

Note: there is a secondary peak in early Oct, although the peak is not has high as Sept 10th. My eyes are slowly shifting to the Caribbean, GOM and waters off the Bahamas.

I am NOT saying the US is off the hook, just expressing an opinion that the threat is diminishing now with each day we move past the Sept 10th peak.

Okay hopefully I didn't jinx anything.

[TampaSteve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well we are just past the peak of a season that has been full of ULLs, troughs, and fish storms..- so much different than last year.

I looked long and hard across the Atlantic and I just don't see anything that could threaten the US mainland anytime soon. This is great news for us as we need a break. The door for the Cape Verde season is slowly shutting as it typically takes 2 weeks for anything to traverse the Atlantic (and by that time we are near October and troughs are stronger) - note we cannot leave out the Leeward islands as they are closer to the Cape Verde area.

Note: there is a secondary peak in early Oct, although the peak is not has high as Sept 10th. My eyes are slowly shifting to the Caribbean, GOM and waters off the Bahamas.

I am NOT saying the US is off the hook, just expressing an opinion that the threat is diminishing now with each day we move past the Sept 10th peak.

Okay hopefully I didn't jinx anything.

Cape Verde ain't gettin' it done this year, but watch out for home cookin'! The Gulf is still the hotspot and the danger zone!

[gatorcane]

I think this post by a member sums it up nice regarding the CV season:

just taking a look at the globals...it appears that the combination of the east coast troughing and the impacts of flo and gordon will have left the atlantic ridge in pretty sad shape.....earlier posts were alluding to a rebuilding, somewhat contiguous ridging in the latter half of september....there is no evidence of a tendency toward that result in any of the current model runs(out to 144hrs)...the current weakness from the east coast east to 60deg W, if anything, amplifies as the central atlantic ridging retreats further east and, as 94L develops and moves west, forces recurvature east and north of the islands.....IMO, as the cv season moves to its conclusion, only very low latitude sytems(forming S of 12degN) will have a reasonable probability of reaching the caribbean, gom or the east coast...as boca mentioned, barring an unforeseen change in the synoptics in the central/western atlantic, our focus will soon shift to the western caribbean for us landfall threats

[wlfpack81]

CV season may be shutting down but as someone else said have to watch out for home grown systems off of stalled fronts in the GOM. Still have a ways to go before we can signal the all clear.

[jaxfladude]

A quiet hurricane season after the last few hurricane seasons is a blessing beyond words!!!!!!
Still watch for any thing that might develop

[CrazyC83]

Okay hopefully I didn't jinx anything.

While Gordon is pointing in the wrong direction anyway, don't tell Helene (likely to be the wave off Africa now) that! You may have given her ideas!

[marcane_1973]

The way the it is set up now basically the U.S has a big forcefield over it and it will not have the possibility to change anytime soon for at least the next 10 or more days. Everything right now will just get deflected just like Florence and Gordon. Unless there is some weird homegrown development in the GOM they are ok as well which will doubtfully happen. Anything that develops will not be able to get past the Caribbean. The Bermuda high is one of the biggest players at the moment which is very weak in the mid levels out in the Atlantic. This does not seem to be moving anytime soon. The U.S. can breathe pretty easy right now.

[terstorm1012]

Georges (1998) was a Cape Verde and hit toward the end of September. No breathing easy at all.

[Lifesgud2]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well we are just past the peak of a season that has been full of ULLs, troughs, and fish storms..- so much different than last year.

I looked long and hard across the Atlantic and I just don't see anything that could threaten the US mainland anytime soon. This is great news for us as we need a break. The door for the Cape Verde season is slowly shutting as it typically takes 2 weeks for anything to traverse the Atlantic (and by that time we are near October and troughs are stronger) - note we cannot leave out the Leeward islands as they are closer to the Cape Verde area.

Note: there is a secondary peak in early Oct, although the peak is not has high as Sept 10th. My eyes are slowly shifting to the Caribbean, GOM and waters off the Bahamas.

I am NOT saying the US is off the hook, just expressing an opinion that the threat is diminishing now with each day we move past the Sept 10th peak.

Okay hopefully I didn't jinx anything.

Great post, but we have been saying this since July...

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, I agree, alot of people scoffed at us when we called for a short season with not much activity....

I wouldn't be surprised if Gordon is all we get, with perhaps 1 more more after this...One thing for sure, the USA seems to be protected. I don't think we will get any gulf storms or Carib storms, due to all the shear that seems to always be around these days....and CV storms 90% of the time turn out to sea, so we are safe there.... Yep, not official, but think USA is pretty much in the clear, no evidence otherwise.

[Opal storm]

As long as that weakness in the ridge remains I don't think anything that forms east of the Carib is going to be a threat to the U.S.Right now our attention needs to shift closer to home with these cold fronts dumping energy in the Gulf.I think we will see 2-3 more named storms before all is said and done,and they're most likely going to be fishes IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

As long as that weakness in the ridge remains I don't think anything that forms east of the Carib is going to be a threat to the U.S.Right now our attention needs to shift closer to home with these cold fronts dumping energy in the Gulf.I think we will see 2-3 more named storms before all is said and done,and they're most likely going to be fishes IMO.

true, and just like the season so far, anything that develops close to home will encounter enough shear so that it will be tough for it to develop....