Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

Thunder44 · #41 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:17 am

This will probably designated 94L this afternoon. I also think it will be Tropical Storm Helene.

#42 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:25 am

Just keep those "cold" fronts coming down south and it won't make one bit of difference what forms coming off of Africa. Anyway, it has got a long way journey if it would even head toward the U.S.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:29 am

Thunder44 wrote:This will probably designated 94L this afternoon. I also think it will be Tropical Storm Helene.

Maybe you are right about that.If invest 94L goes up,this thread will be the one for that and continue the discussions.

Zardoz · #44 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:41 am

Stormcenter wrote:Just keep those "cold" fronts coming down south and it won't make one bit of difference what forms coming off of Africa. Anyway, it has got a long way journey if it would even head toward the U.S.

Nevertheless, this is an impressive system at the moment, and it'll be interesting to see what happens to it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

#45 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:This will probably designated 94L this afternoon. I also think it will be Tropical Storm Helene.

I agree. (I predicted in the pre-season that Helene would be the big one this year like Katrina was last year)

weatherwindow · #46 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:18 pm

just taking a look at the globals...it appears that the combination of the east coast troughing and the impacts of flo and gordon will have left the atlantic ridge in pretty sad shape.....earlier posts were alluding to a rebuilding, somewhat contiguous ridging in the latter half of september....there is no evidence of a tendency toward that result in any of the current model runs(out to 144hrs)...the current weakness from the east coast east to 60deg W, if anything, amplifies as the central atlantic ridging retreats further east and, as 94L develops and moves west, forces recurvature east and north of the islands.....IMO, as the cv season moves to its conclusion, only very low latitude sytems(forming S of 12degN) will have a reasonable probability of reaching the caribbean, gom or the east coast...as boca mentioned, barring an unforeseen change in the synoptics in the central/western atlantic, our focus will soon shift to the western caribbean for us landfall threats

MiamiensisWx · #47 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:43 pm

Latest mariner graphic indicates possible tropical cyclone development for the wave about to exit the African coastline that is the subject of this thread...

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:47 pm

They are going fast with this system.

Thunder44 · #49 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:48 pm

We could have 3 named storms at the same time in the Atlantic sometime this week! Mostly for the fishes though.

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:54 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.4N 17.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 12.09.2006 11.4N 17.0W WEAK

12UTC 12.09.2006 11.7N 18.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2006 12.5N 21.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.09.2006 12.9N 25.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.09.2006 13.6N 28.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.09.2006 13.7N 31.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.09.2006 15.5N 33.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.09.2006 16.5N 36.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.09.2006 17.6N 38.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.09.2006 19.4N 40.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 17.09.2006 22.0N 42.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.09.2006 23.4N 43.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET goes fishing but has a strong system.

El Nino · #51 Postby **El Nino** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:54 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Latest mariner graphic indicates possible tropical cyclone development for the wave about to exit the African coastline that is the subject of this thread...

OMG

Talking about the peek of a quiet season ? :roll:

Zardoz · #52 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:59 pm

Thunder44 wrote:We could have 3 named storms at the same time in the Atlantic sometime this week! Mostly for the fishes though.

All-fish, all the time, but I doubt that there's a single Gulf Coast resident who does not welcome the break in the action that this season is providing.

They deserve some relief.

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:16 pm

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL
IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO
16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W.

Thunder44 · #54 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL
IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO
16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W.

It may not be an invest this afternoon, since the low is still inland.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:25 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL
IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU.
IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO
16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W.

It may not be an invest this afternoon, since the low is still inland.

Yes,that is why I took out the invest 94L from the title.

#56 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:55 pm

Not sure about a fish here. I think this will be the big landfaller ultimately (yes, just my gut feeling) and Helene will be the first name of 2006 retired.

#57 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:06 pm

Could this be declared TD8 without being called an Invest?

sma10 · #58 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
I agree. (I predicted in the pre-season that Helene would be the big one this year like Katrina was last year)

I sincerely doubt it.

Katrina was a fairly rare event; I don't think you can expect something like that every year.

The most likely scenario for a system forming off the immediate African coast, is an early recurve. Especially this season.

sma10 · #59 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Not sure about a fish here. I think this will be the big landfaller ultimately (yes, just my gut feeling) and Helene will be the first name of 2006 retired.

Unfortunately, your "gut" cannot control strong troughs, weak ridges, and over a hundred years of climatology.

#60 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:11 pm

sma10...I understand what CrazyC83 is saying. He's not saying it will be a storm like Katrina by any means. Katrina is THE name that was remembered last season. What he's saying is Helene may be THE name we remember from this season. I kind of agree. I, also, felt before the season began that Helene would be the big on of 2006. Nothing scientific..just the way the name sounds

Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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