Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#421 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:20 pm

latest frame shows a more WNW wobble by the way, even though the center is still to the right of the latest NHC forecast point.

#422 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:24 pm

11/1745 UTC 21.5N 57.0W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD has their sat estimate at 35kts.

#423 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:27 pm

TROPICAL STORM GORDON (AL072006) ON 20060911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060911 1800 060912 0600 060912 1800 060913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 57.1W 22.2N 58.6W 23.2N 59.9W 24.6N 61.1W
BAMM 21.4N 57.1W 22.3N 58.7W 23.5N 60.0W 24.9N 61.0W
A98E 21.4N 57.1W 22.5N 58.9W 23.7N 60.4W 25.1N 61.5W
LBAR 21.4N 57.1W 22.5N 58.5W 23.8N 59.6W 25.6N 60.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060913 1800 060914 1800 060915 1800 060916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.3N 62.0W 30.3N 62.4W 33.1N 60.2W 34.6N 56.9W
BAMM 26.5N 61.5W 30.0N 62.0W 33.0N 60.4W 36.0N 56.5W
A98E 26.3N 62.6W 30.1N 62.7W 32.5N 61.3W 34.6N 57.3W
LBAR 27.1N 60.4W 30.7N 60.0W 33.5N 57.6W 35.5N 52.7W
SHIP 67KTS 75KTS 75KTS 74KTS
DSHP 67KTS 75KTS 75KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 57.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 55.2W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.2N LONM24 = 53.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Models start at 40kts.

El Nino · #424 Postby **El Nino** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:31 pm

So, that's 15 kts more than yesterday. Quite a good intensification :roll:

Website · #425 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:33 pm

Another name off the list.

jaxfladude · #426 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:48 pm

Any updates on the path of TS Gordon? Still fishing or a more westward movement?

Non Met here in simple language please...... :lol:

#427 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:48 pm

This marks only the 4th day that we have had more than one named system this season.
Debby and Ernesto overlapped for 3 days.

Quite a peacful season it has been.

#428 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:01 pm

I got excited myself and changed the titles but the storm2k policy of official information being posted will be once again followed.I know that recon found winds of TS force but a statement or an advisory will be the official word despite NRL and the 18:00z models having Gordon as header.

#429 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:03 pm

The dissappearing name..... :?:

First I see the thread title is "Gordon" and now back to "TD #7"......

#430 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:06 pm

maybe Gordon has some good tricks up his sleeve :eek:

#431 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:08 pm

Is that an eye trying to form?

#432 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:maybe Gordon has some good tricks up his sleeve

I think the only thing up his sleeve is a one way boat ride to fishy land....

WmE · #433 Postby **WmE** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is that an eye trying to form?

No! No eyewall, no eye. It's just the exposed CC.

BensonTCwatcher · #434 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:27 pm

Here is one for fun. THIS is not a forecast, and it is not official, for pete's sake.

I have not spent too much time on this system, but the current setup, although generally looks like it will end up recurving as forecast, has few bugs in it to me.

1. The ridge is building back to the NW of Gordie here quicker than the globals have it forecast. This would cause the system to track to the NW for say 12 hours ( maybe less) and then pick up a significant westward ( perhaps SW a jog or 2) motion for up at least 48 to 72 hours.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

After that, the forecast trough coming off the east coast, woudl surely pick this system up and take it off to the NE. The most interesting part is the timing compared to any intensification, followed by storm speed.

All in all I can't see this system breaking through 70 west or so before on it recurves. 80% or better this misses the EC entirely. 5 % this makes a brush with the Canadian maritimes, and 10% it gets sheared out and dissipates.

#435 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:30 pm

In the last hour or so, I can see what looks like a motion toward 330-340 degrees at about 9 kts. I'm thinking that the GFDL and CONU tracks may well be pretty good in recurving east of 60W and moving much more quckly than NHC is forecasting. I also think it'll be a hurricane in 48-60 hrs.

#436 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:32 pm

Shame we cannot bottle up the Atmosphere as it exists this year and release it every Hurricane Season

craptacular · #437 Postby **craptacular** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:In the last hour or so, I can see what looks like a motion toward 330-340 degrees at about 9 kts.

For what it's worth, the two vortices from the current recon mission showed a NW motion (310 degrees) at 9 mph.

#438 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:35 pm

Take a look at the 18Z dynamic models. NHC track is way west of guidance now. I'm sure they'll be adjusting their track eastward at 4pm.

#439 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:40 pm

I can't see how it can turn so N so quickly - to me it looks like the subtropical ridge is building SW and soon Gordon will feel this and resume a WNW movement.

#440 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:59 pm

Perhaps this mean flow chart will help you to understand why Gordon may be heading northward fairly quickly. It's rounding the southwest side of the Bermuda High this afternoon. Moving NW at 9 kts, it's showing no signs of a slower westerly movement. I think it's too late for the high to block it.

Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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