Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

Wxman57....I have a nit picky question about that flow chart. How can that be valid as of 4pm CDT when it's only 3pm CDT?

[wxman57]

Wxman57....I have a nit picky question about that flow chart. How can that be valid as of 4pm CDT when it's only 3pm CDT?

It's the 21Z forecast chart from the 12Z GFS.

[skysummit]

Wxman57....I have a nit picky question about that flow chart. How can that be valid as of 4pm CDT when it's only 3pm CDT?

It's the 21Z forecast chart from the 12Z GFS.

LOL...Ok, I told you it was nit picky.

[jlauderdal]

Any updates on the path of TS Gordon? Still fishing or a more westward movement?

Non Met here in simple language please......

This says it all as far as a fish storm.

[hial2]

What is that spawning to the west of Gordon?

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm no pro met, but I am a mad scientist... here is my observations regarding TD 7 aka "Gordon". Looking more symetrical and deaper convection starting to build in nicely throughout the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

This one has the potential to spin up more quickly since it is compact. Perhaps Gordon will be a hurricane in 24-48hrs. Movement is NW or even N/NW, but appears to be slowing slightly in the last few frames of the visible loop. The overall envelop of the storm hasn't moved much this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

The last run of the GFS valid for 0z shows very weak steering currents for "Gordon"... but he appears to be going into the light... ever more toward inevitible recurvature.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif

By 48 hours (0z Wed) the GFS depicts a ridge that still has a large break... that's what happens when you replace the Bermuda high with a king size low pressure area, aka Florence.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

Regarding shear, i dont think that will be a big problem for Gordon. Granted there is not a huge anticyclone aloft, but upper level winds appear to be light in 48 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

[Scorpion]

Why is this thread still called TD7? It can be misleading to people thinking this is still a TD.

[cycloneye]

Why is this thread still called TD7? It can be misleading to people thinking this is still a TD.

It can be misleading if NHC does not upgrade for some reason,and that is why storm2k always wait for the official word from NHC,even though recon has found winds of TS force and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

[mf_dolphin]

Why is this thread still called TD7? It can be misleading to people thinking this is still a TD.

Until the NHC designates it as a TS it is still a depression just as Luis says. Depending on the reduction they take from the flight level winds it may or may not be named a TS yet. We should know in the next 10-15 minutes.

[Mac]

Why is this thread still called TD7? It can be misleading to people thinking this is still a TD.

It can be misleading if NHC does not upgrade for some reason,and that is why storm2k always wait for the official word from NHC,even though recon has found winds of TS force and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

What he said.

Although we see the data obs as they come in from the flights, we may not be aware of certain things...such as errors in the data, for whatever reason. It could be the data was faulty, and the flight crews are not going to make us aware of that. Therefore, it is more prudent to wait for the official word from the NHC before upgrading.

It wouldn't be the first time that the NHC did not upgrade because of faulty data or for some other reason unforeseen to the members here. Darn those guys, they just have better access to data than we do.

[Thunder44]

Why is this thread still called TD7? It can be misleading to people thinking this is still a TD.

It can be misleading if NHC does not upgrade for some reason,and that is why storm2k always wait for the official word from NHC,even though recon has found winds of TS force and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

What he said.

Although we see the data obs as they come in from the flights, we may not be aware of certain things...such as errors in the data, for whatever reason. It could be the data was faulty, and the flight crews are not going to make us aware of that. Therefore, it is more prudent to wait for the official word from the NHC before upgrading.

It wouldn't be the first time that the NHC did not upgrade because of faulty data or for some other reason unforeseen to the members here. Darn those guys, they just have better access to data than we do.

It's not just the data from the plane that we know that TPC will upgrade, but they NRL says "Gordon" and they initialized their own models this afternoon as a "Tropical Storm Gordon". It's really not unusual for TPC let some in the know what they are going to do ahead of time, but I understand that Storm2k wants to wait for the "official" word, before they can be held accountable at all for spreading any inaccurate information to the general public.

[WxGuy1]

The last run of the GFS valid for 0z shows very weak steering currents for "Gordon"... but he appears to be going into the light... ever more toward inevitible recurvature.

Emmett,

Just a suggestion -- you want to look above the 1000mb level if you are looking for steering flow. The maps you linked to show pressure and wind near the surface, which is well beneath the flow that most affects the movement of cyclones. If you can only look at one pressure level, I'd suggest looking at 500mb when examining which direction TD7 may head. Again, surface features (e.g. a surface ridge) do not have to line up with streering-level feature (e.g. a mid-level ridge). In fact, they are often 1/4-wavelength out of phase. When looking for a "weakness in the ridge", most refer to ridging aloft (e.g. mid-level ridge), which is often not centered in the same area as a surface ridge / high.

[Emmett_Brown]

The last run of the GFS valid for 0z shows very weak steering currents for "Gordon"... but he appears to be going into the light... ever more toward inevitible recurvature.

Emmett,

Just a suggestion -- you want to look above the 1000mb level if you are looking for steering flow. The maps you linked to show pressure and wind near the surface, which is well beneath the flow that most affects the movement of cyclones. If you can only look at one pressure level, I'd suggest looking at 500mb when examining which direction TD7 may head. Again, surface features (e.g. a surface ridge) do not have to line up with streering-level feature (e.g. a mid-level ridge). In fact, they are often 1/4-wavelength out of phase. When looking for a "weakness in the ridge", most refer to ridging aloft (e.g. mid-level ridge), which is often not centered in the same area as a surface ridge / high.

From one mad scientist to another, I appreciate your assistance, my esteemed colleague. Further examination of the 48 hr 500mb GFS valid 0z Wed does help to remove some of the mystery. The flow should pull Gordon north... however, the steering currents still appear weak... would you agree WxGuy1?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_48.gif

[cycloneye]

Now it's official. TS Gordon.

[hial2]

Now it's official. TS Gordon.

Does anyone else see a "spin" (low pressure?) in the clouds of the storms to the west of Gordon?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB still thinks this will not turn north as quickly as forecast due to it being a fairly small system.

I am not sure if I agree with him this time though..

[hial2]

Now it's official. TS Gordon.

Does anyone else see a "spin" (low pressure?) in the clouds of the storms to the west of Gordon?

Guess not....need to get my eyeglasses updated...

[fci]

Perhaps this mean flow chart will help you to understand why Gordon may be heading northward fairly quickly. It's rounding the southwest side of the Bermuda High this afternoon. Moving NW at 9 kts, it's showing no signs of a slower westerly movement. I think it's too late for the high to block it.

Wow, it's like an on ramp to an expressway!

Great visual.

[superfly]

From the latest few visible images, Gordon seems to be organizing quickly.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not know what Bastardi is seeing

The synoptic set up is for a recurve, all models show recurve. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that this even has a remote chance to make it to 70W. There is only a 50 trillion to 1 chance this even makes it to 65W