Tropical Storm Gordon=Last Advisory Written by NHC

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Tropical Storm Gordon=Last Advisory Written by NHC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:00 pm

Let's see in the discussion what is NHC reasoning with TD 7.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:38 pm, edited 56 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:52 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:56 pm

Image
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#4 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...SMALL AND SLOWLY-MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 525
MILES...845 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...54.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
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#5 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:01 pm

917
WTNT42 KNHC 110259
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESCAPED TODAY FROM THE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER HURRICANE FLORENCE. AS A RESULT...DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND HAS BECOME MORE
INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT BASED
ON THE 00 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5...AND ON AN OBSERVATION FROM
SHIP MSJX8 OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 27 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO WHAT FLORENCE HAS BEEN...THIS
DEPRESSION IS A SMALL CYCLONE. THE CIRCULATION IS PERHAPS 300 NM
WIDE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN
USUAL FOR A DEPRESSION. IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE
HEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE
DEPRESSION EXISTS. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING
PATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE. THE
GFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE
MODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
OTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS
YEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY
COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS WITHIN
AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER
TROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.2N 54.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
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#6 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:06 am

000
WTNT32 KNHC 110857
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1 WEST OR ABOUT 495
MILES...800 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...55.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

EDIT: Removed Florence advisory -- senorpepr
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#7 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:22 am

you put the Florence discussion
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:31 am

906
WTNT32 KNHC 111427
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

...DEPRESSION NEAR STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 435
MILES...695 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...56.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



907
WTNT22 KNHC 111427
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 56.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 56.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 57.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.3N 58.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.3N 59.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 60.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.0N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 56.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:32 am

098
WTNT42 KNHC 111428
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATED. THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK REASONING IS ABOUT
THE SAME AS BEFORE. WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
HEAD FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE RIGHT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE THIN AT THE MOMENT AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THE HIGHEST
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WERE 25-30 KT. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS TO
GET A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...AND IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING...SO THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.1N 56.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.4N 57.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 22.3N 58.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 23.3N 59.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 24.3N 60.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 26.5N 62.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 29.0N 62.4W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 32.0N 61.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:40 pm

The official word about TD7 or TS Gordon in minutes.
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#11 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:The official word about TD7 or TS Gordon in minutes.


I think they are holding it off until the next VDM comes in.
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#12 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:41 pm

Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast/Advisory Number 4

2100 UTC Mon Sep 11 2006


tropical storm center located near 21.6n 57.3w at 11/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 40ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 21.6n 57.3w at 11/2100z
at 11/1800z center was located near 21.4n 57.1w

forecast valid 12/0600z 22.4n 58.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 40se 25sw 25nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 23.7n 59.3w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 13/0600z 25.0n 60.1w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 13/1800z 26.5n 60.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 14/1800z 29.0n 60.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 15/1800z 31.5n 60.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 16/1800z 34.0n 59.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 21.6n 57.3w

next advisory at 12/0300z

$$
forecaster Cobb/Pasch
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#13 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...GORDON...FORMS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
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#14 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT
WHICH REDUCES TO 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON ON THIS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE UPGRADE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA.
SINCE THE TIME OF THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX THE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH INCREASING BANDING FEATURES AND
EXPANDING OUTFLOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO 2
CAMPS...THE BAMS ON THE LEFT AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
CONSENSUS TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER AND TRAPS THE SYSTEM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AND IS IN PART DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT MODEL WHICH ALSO
DISSIPATES GORDON WITHIN 72 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. GORDON COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 21.6N 57.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 22.4N 58.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 23.7N 59.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 60.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.5N 60.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 60.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 31.5N 60.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
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#15 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 430
MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND GORDON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 57.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.6N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 57.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#16 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND WRAPPING
AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BUT IT IS LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS...A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 50 KNOTS EAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN
THIS ADVISORY. THE VALIDITY OF THESE VECTORS WILL LIKELY BE
QUESTIONED. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN DAY OR SO.

GORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT
BY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 22.1N 57.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 58.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 24.5N 59.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 60.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 27.6N 60.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 59.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:23 am

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...GORDON CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...58.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE
HAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS
320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE
TO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH
FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
BREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON
AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE RIGHT
OUTLIER INITIALLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MUCH SLOWER INTERACTION
WITH THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS. OVERALL THE TRACK IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER GORDON IS DIVERGENT...
AND THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
MODELS BOTH BRING GORDON UP TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL. ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR
WOULD BE SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT COULD BE DRIVEN INTO THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...THE
INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON SHOULD BE DONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 22.6N 58.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 23.6N 59.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 25.1N 59.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.7N 59.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 28.1N 59.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 33.0N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 37.0N 52.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 58.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 25SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 58.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 58.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 59.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 58.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:45 am

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...GORDON MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490
MILES...790 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.4 N...58.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:54 am

740
WTNT42 KNHC 121453
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

A MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0730 UTC...A 1023 WINDSAT PASS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
GORDON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA
AVERAGE 50 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TEMPORARY LEVELING OFF
IN THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...345/8. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NARROWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW GORDON TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY RECURVE AFTER 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN AN
OUTLIER...NOW ALSO RECURVES GORDON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES GORDON A 95 KT
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN
24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH COULD BE ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 23.4N 58.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 24.4N 58.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 58.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 27.4N 58.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 58.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 39.0N 49.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

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#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:56 pm

571
WTNT42 KNHC 122047
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS
WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A
NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO
THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON
A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 23.7N 58.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 24.6N 58.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 58.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.7N 58.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 58.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
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