Low Shear in the Caribbean/GOM

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SouthFloridawx
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Low Shear in the Caribbean/GOM

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:35 pm

I have been looking at the shear maps for the Caribbean for the past few days and I have noticed that there has been very low shear in these areas.

Image

The waves haven't been able to get into this region because of Florence's Development.

Now we have a wave poised to move into the Caribbean. This is the same wave that spawned TD07/Gordon.

205 TWD TPC

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES ITS OWN ENTITY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

It will be interesting to see if this wave can develop on down the road. There is no model support as of yet but, will we see it start to fire up as it moves into the Central and Western Caribbean?
[img]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg[/img]
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:36 pm

maybe, good post and now lets sit back and watch :D
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#3 Postby Zardoz » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:16 pm

Cycloneye's "sleeper" looked to be history, but believe it or not, that's it trying to come back to life at 12N 60W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The wave behind it seems to have some sort of potential, as well.
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Re: Low Shear in the Caribbean/GOM

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:31 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I have been looking at the shear maps for the Caribbean for the past few days and I have noticed that there has been very low shear in these areas.

Image

The waves haven't been able to get into this region because of Florence's Development.

Now we have a wave poised to move into the Caribbean. This is the same wave that spawned TD07/Gordon.

205 TWD TPC

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES ITS OWN ENTITY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

It will be interesting to see if this wave can develop on down the road. There is no model support as of yet but, will we see it start to fire up as it moves into the Central and Western Caribbean?
[img]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg[/img]


Just wait until the fronts come down into the GOM and the northerly shear increases.
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Re: Low Shear in the Caribbean/GOM

#5 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:53 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:I have been looking at the shear maps for the Caribbean for the past few days and I have noticed that there has been very low shear in these areas.
(Image Removed)
The waves haven't been able to get into this region because of Florence's Development.
Now we have a wave poised to move into the Caribbean. This is the same wave that spawned TD07/Gordon.
205 TWD TPC
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES ITS OWN ENTITY.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
It will be interesting to see if this wave can develop on down the road. There is no model support as of yet but, will we see it start to fire up as it moves into the Central and Western Caribbean?
[img]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg[/img]

Just wait until the fronts come down into the GOM and the northerly shear increases.

I have taken a look at the upper level wind forecast from GFS and it still indicates relatively light windshear throughout the next 5 days.
24
Image
48
Image
72
Image
120
Developing Upper Level High
Image
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