Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

This looks like a open and shut for a recurve. The storm already looks like it's turning north into the weakness in the ridge. The stronger it gets is the more likely it will turn sooner.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

in this case, stronger does not mean faster recurve. The deep BAM is actually west slightly of the shallow BAM... however, the deep BAM only makes it to about 62.5W

[Sanibel]

Gordon is tapping prime season SST's.

[jaxfladude]

Gordon is tapping prime season SST's.

Cool off the waters for the next system, this season is looking good so far in terms of major hurricanes hitting the US. we need the break....
I know that there are deaths this year due to flooding from tropical systems or their remains........

[Damar91]

Gordon is tapping prime season SST's.

Cool off the waters for the next system, this season is looking good so far in terms of major hurricanes hitting the US. we need the break....
I know that there are deaths this year due to flooding from tropical systems or their remains........

Yeah, I agree. Just for fun I was looking back at the old threads of when Wilma hit. Those that may want a storm this year should really look back on those. I forgot how scary that time really was.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just as I was expecting yesterday...Enviroment is very faverable with a upper level high right over our cyclone. As it heads northwest then northward...Expect this to become our first major hurricanes. I hope it bombs into a cat4! Nice eye...In guest what if it doe's that we will be pretty much tied with 1997!

[wxman57]

I do not know what Bastardi is seeing

The synoptic set up is for a recurve, all models show recurve. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that this even has a remote chance to make it to 70W. There is only a 50 trillion to 1 chance this even makes it to 65W

To Joe's defense (see, I wasn't bashing him yesterday), he doesn't "see" anything in the models. What he's saying is that he believes that the GFS is incorrect in not building the ridge quickly westward in Florence's wake. Such a building ridge would block Gordon's recurvature. As we all know, the GFS often has a lot of problems with ridge/trof positions. Remember it showed a strong ridge over Florida early on with Ernesto?

However, I think another argument can be made that Florence will be so strong that it will enhance the trof and prevent the Bermuda High from ridging westward for a while. That's what all the models are projecting, and I think the models are correct in this case.

By the way, I just went to the AccuWeather Pro site to check that they had JB's track toward the Bahamas for Gordon. Amazingly enough, their track matches the NHC's - sharp recurvature and not their main tropical meteorologist's forecast. It's easy to claim you were right if you forecast a storm to go in two directions.

[Cyclenall]

I think Gordon is strengthening much quicker then we might think. Let's watch it organize rapidly.

[Buck]

Yes, cloud tops are cooling and it's tightening up quickly.

[Bgator]

What happens if gordon slows down....I have been looking at sat loops, and it looks to be just sitting there...

[cycloneye]

853
WHXX04 KWBC 112333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GORDON 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 57.3 300./ 9.9
6 21.9 58.0 315./ 9.2
12 22.5 58.7 307./ 9.2
18 23.1 59.2 323./ 7.5
24 24.1 59.3 351./ 9.7
30 25.2 59.5 355./11.2
36 26.2 60.0 330./11.1
42 27.0 60.4 334./ 8.6
48 27.7 60.5 352./ 7.0
54 28.4 60.6 355./ 7.3
60 29.3 60.6 359./ 8.8
66 30.4 60.4 8./11.7
72 31.4 60.0 24./10.7
78 32.6 59.4 29./12.4
84 33.8 58.8 25./12.8
90 34.9 58.2 30./12.5
96 36.0 57.0 47./14.2
102 37.1 55.5 54./17.0
108 38.4 53.3 60./21.1
114 39.9 50.1 65./28.8
120 41.7 46.1 66./35.2
126 44.1 41.6 62./41.1

18z GFDL does not have Gordon passing to 61w.

[HURAKAN]

GORDON LOOKING REALLY GOOD!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

NHC track seems to be right down the center ATM.

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Tropical Storm Gordon becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 75% (could go higher)
Category 2 Hurricane: 65%
Category 3 Hurricane: 50%
Category 4 Hurricane: 25%
Category 5 Hurricane: 4%

[Damar91]

Didn't one of the pro-mets earlier say that a stronger storm could mean a more westerly track? Or was that before the current conditions? Thanks.

[Damar91]

Gordon not moving much now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

slowing down would be a bad thing. It would allow more time for the ridge to build in.

[Scorpion]

It's looking great now. Hopefully it bombs into a Cat 3 or 4 and we get some nice eye candy while watching him go fish .

[Bgator]

It has really slowed down alot, i also see a west jog, but its hard to tell on IR imagery...

[Damar91]

slowing down would be a bad thing. It would allow more time for the ridge to build in.

That's why I wondered. It seems to be just sitting there spinning and getting more organized. Maybe it's just me.