Gordon forecast #2: Quick development possible

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Josephine96

Gordon forecast #2: Quick development possible

#1 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:47 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.
It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound
meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM GORDON
845 PM MON SEPT 11TH 2006

Another wave that came off Africa officially was born last night and named Tropical Storm Gordon at 5pm eastern today. Gordon which is beginning to strengthen, maybe even rapidly is gaining strength and is expected to become the seasons' 3rd hurricane and 3rd in a row.

The big early question is whether or not the storm is automatically a fish or whether or not he will progress along and maybe make it to the US.

Gordon has some decent convection tonight, while still being slightly influenced by the exiting Hurricane Florence. As Florence exits.. the chances on Gordon being an ultimate fish will rest on when or how if the high pressure builds back in. Thus could keep Gordon on a west by northwest course. Eventually perhaps closing in on the US coast, if a trough doesn't pick him up.

Many models to insist he'll be picked up. As I intend to do.. I'm going against the models for at least the short term and saying his slow movement will allow the system to move further west or northwest and strengthen some.

The NHC has him turning very quickly and very soon as he crosses 60.. I'm going to go on a limb and say his slow speed will not allow him to turn to perhaps 65-70 at the earliest. This because of what I mentioned in my previous statement. Slow movement plus strengthening..= potential further west storm.

2 tidbits before I enter a forecast.

1. 1994 and 2000 Gordon both hit the state of Florida. Not calling a Gordon hit though so don't take this as 1.

2. Jeanne in 2004 was a late September storm. Yes the dynamics were much different in 04.. but those are just 2 tidbits to chew on.

Here are my predictions on Gordon:
Rest of tonight: Continuing to strengthen. Moving slowly. More west than north possibly. Max winds: 50 mph
Tuesday: Slowly progressing near 60 W.. Strengthening more. Max winds: 60 mph
Wednesday:North of Puerto Rico. Getting close to the Bahamas if no turn. 3rd hurricane. Max winds: 80 mph
Thursday: Beginning to turn. Should spare the coast. Watching High.. If high builds in.. possibly still west. Max winds: 95 mph
Friday: Watching carefully as he spins. Max winds: 100 mph

Track and forecast are subject to errors some by as much as 100's of miles.

Comments and thoughts welcomed please.. :wink:
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#2 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:09 pm

Forget it....It is going out to sea....it wont make it much further west....sorry....
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#3 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:21 pm

If it makes it to about 65-70 and the high builds in.. EAT CROW! :lol: sorry.. you wanna be smart.. I can be smart right back..
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#4 Postby Damar91 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:22 pm

This board is really going down hill fast. :grr:
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#5 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:24 pm

LOL.. Damar.. I wasn't getting nasty.. He was.. and how do u figure the boards' going downhill?
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#6 Postby Damar91 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:28 pm

Josephine96 wrote:LOL.. Damar.. I wasn't getting nasty.. He was.. and how do u figure the boards' going downhill?


I know. It just seems that every single topic, somebody makes a sarcastic remark to someone else and before you know it, we are not even talking about storms anymore. This didn't seem to happen as much last year.
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#7 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:31 pm

ah ok.. :wink: Btw.. feel free to chime in on my ideas if ya want..
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#8 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:35 pm

not trying to be smart but that trough is well pronounced and I just don't see how it is going to make it west....sorry...not trying to be smart....it probably wont make it past 55 West....just stating the facts ...
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#9 Postby Damar91 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:38 pm

Josephine96 wrote:ah ok.. :wink: Btw.. feel free to chime in on my ideas if ya want..


I think your idea has merit, but alot would have to happen that is not happening now. Such as the trough weakens and the high pressure gets stronger. I don't put much stock in the models, but it does seem likely that Gordon will go the way of Florence.
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#10 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:38 pm

Ok.. cool.. no hard feelings.. :)
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#11 Postby StormWarning1 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:47 pm

It's as close to the Bahamas as it gonna get. Just because it is moving slow does not mean it will trend more West.
There is only 1 forecast model that brings it close the US, and we all know what that one is.

You got the right idea about it turning, just not soon enough though in my opinion.
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#12 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:52 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:It's as close to the Bahamas as it gonna get. Just because it is moving slow does not mean it will trend more West.
There is only 1 forecast model that brings it close the US, and we all know what that one is.

You got the right idea about it turning, just not soon enough though in my opinion.


Which one is that?
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#13 Postby fci » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:29 pm

I go with the turn pretty soon school of thought.

Looking at wxman57's charts all over the Gordon board, it seems like a slam dunk that he will turn and probably be well east of Bermuda.
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#14 Postby Robjohn53 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:42 pm

That would be good for the no one needs 2 in a roll..
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#15 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:51 pm

At least you put it out there. I give you credit for having an original idea of your own and not following the crowd, that said I say it turns between 61 - 62.
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#16 Postby fci » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:53 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:At least you put it out there. I give you credit for having an original idea of your own and not following the crowd, that said I say it turns between 61 - 62.


I agree.

As I said last night I salute you for putting your forecast out there!

:clap:
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