It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound
meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
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EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM GORDON
845 PM MON SEPT 11TH 2006
Another wave that came off Africa officially was born last night and named Tropical Storm Gordon at 5pm eastern today. Gordon which is beginning to strengthen, maybe even rapidly is gaining strength and is expected to become the seasons' 3rd hurricane and 3rd in a row.
The big early question is whether or not the storm is automatically a fish or whether or not he will progress along and maybe make it to the US.
Gordon has some decent convection tonight, while still being slightly influenced by the exiting Hurricane Florence. As Florence exits.. the chances on Gordon being an ultimate fish will rest on when or how if the high pressure builds back in. Thus could keep Gordon on a west by northwest course. Eventually perhaps closing in on the US coast, if a trough doesn't pick him up.
Many models to insist he'll be picked up. As I intend to do.. I'm going against the models for at least the short term and saying his slow movement will allow the system to move further west or northwest and strengthen some.
The NHC has him turning very quickly and very soon as he crosses 60.. I'm going to go on a limb and say his slow speed will not allow him to turn to perhaps 65-70 at the earliest. This because of what I mentioned in my previous statement. Slow movement plus strengthening..= potential further west storm.
2 tidbits before I enter a forecast.
1. 1994 and 2000 Gordon both hit the state of Florida. Not calling a Gordon hit though so don't take this as 1.
2. Jeanne in 2004 was a late September storm. Yes the dynamics were much different in 04.. but those are just 2 tidbits to chew on.
Here are my predictions on Gordon:
Rest of tonight: Continuing to strengthen. Moving slowly. More west than north possibly. Max winds: 50 mph
Tuesday: Slowly progressing near 60 W.. Strengthening more. Max winds: 60 mph
Wednesday:North of Puerto Rico. Getting close to the Bahamas if no turn. 3rd hurricane. Max winds: 80 mph
Thursday: Beginning to turn. Should spare the coast. Watching High.. If high builds in.. possibly still west. Max winds: 95 mph
Friday: Watching carefully as he spins. Max winds: 100 mph
Track and forecast are subject to errors some by as much as 100's of miles.
Comments and thoughts welcomed please..
