A few observations from GFS

[SouthFloridawx]

Below I've posted the 200mb heights/wnd speeds.



Now when I glance at that I see Troughing in the East and off the East Coast of the CONUS and ridging in the west.

The image I am posting below this is at 138 Hour.



If the troughing @ 138 hour is then located in the west rather than the east. Would we not expect a moderate ridge to be building in the Atlantic? Well I would think so but, GFS disagrees with my assumtion and relocates the troughing that was along the east coast to the Central Atlantic and it appears to break the ridge down there as well.



Now to my questions...

What type of patten is this indicating?

What affect is this going to have on the next couple of weeks in regards to the 2006 Hurricane Season?

If and when the troughing in the central atlantic pulls out wouldn't we then see a building ridge and thus a threat to the East Coast via bursts of energy coming off the west coast troughing?

Again keep in mind I'm trying to learn this stuff and I realize there are larger things that are affecting the synoptics above mentioned. I would deduce from GFS that the Western States would have Below Normal Temps and the Eastern States would have Above normal temps and below normal precip. after 100 hours or so.

[SouthFloridawx]

About the same thing from the 18Z run from GFS. The first Image is of 00 initialazation hour.

My general question is since we have been seeing Western CONUS ridging, what kind of pattern can we expect for the Atlantic. Perhaps we're oging to see the troughing off of the east coast switch to troughing in the Central Atlantic. The opposite of what I posted here a week or so ago.

I'm still learning about patterns and troughs and ridges and all that kind of fun stuff so I wanted to get everyone's input.

00 Hour CONUS shot

00 Hour Atlantic Shot



120 Hour CONUS Shot

120 Hour Atlantic Shot

[wxmann_91]

Look at the wavelengths and teleconnections.

Western CONUS trough = Eastern CONUS/western Atlantic ridge = central atlantic trough

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at the wavelengths and teleconnections.

Western CONUS trough = Eastern CONUS/western Atlantic ridge = central atlantic trough

Excuse me for asking but, what the heck is a teleconnection?

[wxmann_91]

Excuse me for asking but, what the heck is a teleconnection?

Amplification of a trough or ridge usually leads to amplification either downstream or upstream (if it's a block).

For example, in a +PNA pattern, the resultant ridge in the western CONUS leads to a deep trough in the east. Or, in a -NAO pattern, a huge block would form in Greenland and upstream, a trough would form over the eastern U.S.

Here are some teleconnection indexes:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/wx/indices.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

Excuse me for asking but, what the heck is a teleconnection?

Amplification of a trough or ridge usually leads to amplification either downstream or upstream (if it's a block).

For example, in a +PNA pattern, the resultant ridge in the western CONUS leads to a deep trough in the east. Or, in a -NAO pattern, a huge block would form in Greenland and upstream, a trough would form over the eastern U.S.

Here are some teleconnection indexes:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/wx/indices.shtml

So if we keep seeing this pattern of Troughing in the West we can expect Ridging in the Western Atlantic?

[wxmann_91]

Excuse me for asking but, what the heck is a teleconnection?

Amplification of a trough or ridge usually leads to amplification either downstream or upstream (if it's a block).

For example, in a +PNA pattern, the resultant ridge in the western CONUS leads to a deep trough in the east. Or, in a -NAO pattern, a huge block would form in Greenland and upstream, a trough would form over the eastern U.S.

Here are some teleconnection indexes:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/wx/indices.shtml

So if we keep seeing this pattern of Troughing in the West we can expect Ridging in the Western Atlantic?

East Coast mainly, but yeah. Weakness should remain right about where it is right now. Any storm that wants to approach the mainland U.S. will follow the same fate as Florence and Gordon.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well lets see what the 12Z GFS today has to offer and what is different about this run from the last night at 18Z.

18 Hour Forecast from Yesterday. 18Z GFS


00 Hour today 12Z GFS


120 Hours Yesterday 18Z


102 Hour sinces it's 18 Hours later


500mb 144 Hours from 18Z Yesterday


126 Hours from 12Z today

[LaBreeze]

Seems like nothing getting into the GOM anytime soon.

[OuterBanker]

Teleconnections in reference to JB is the Epac refelcts what will happen in the w atlantic 10 days to 2 wks ahead. Latest reference was to a typhoon that veered off about 400 miles east of Japan would reflect what would happen with Flo. Sure enough it was almost a carbon copy. Best example yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFS from last night...


06Z Today


18Z Last night.. 500mb


06Z Today

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z GFS seems to be backing off of it's west coast troughing for the moment. It still builds it in however a little bit later than before.

00 Hour 12Z


Here is the 18Z last night on the 18 Hour Forecast for the 00 Hour GFS 12Z



This could have a longer term affect on the track of TD8 in the future. Eventhough this trough will eventually scoot TD 8 out, it is likely that it may be delayed slightly.

12Z today compared to the 18Z last night.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wouldn't it be something to see that West Coast Trough turn into a rex block rather than continue to move east.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ya know... I just realized that these images update from the same location the next day. Instead I should have saved the image on image shack and then uploaded it.