HH Gordon Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

That cone is gigantic, there is almost no possible way for you to be incorrect in any way. Who is the "we" you speak of?

the cone is basiccially two diffrent cones. i will be remaking it shortly.

[jusforsean]

Evil Jeremy: I have been reading your "forecasts" for a while now and I do have to say that i find them interesting I am assuming that you are studying to be a meterologist or mabey just an enthusiast and I dont know who the we part is but regardless my hat goes off to you because whatever the reason for your forecasts you are gaining great practice, heck when the weather calls for sun I pack an umbrella so dont be afraid to be wrong it's the mystery of mother nature, it's a hard job to take on. I take your track to mean it could go one of two ways not encompassing the entire cone but viewing it as two paths of possibility. As with any storm I always say we will know where its going when it gets there! Best of luck to you and by the way i believe we are neighbors your in plantation, i am in davie

[Evil Jeremy]

Evil Jeremy: I have been reading your "forecasts" for a while now and I do have to say that i find them interesting I am assuming that you are studying to be a meterologist or mabey just an enthusiast and I dont know who the we part is but regardless my hat goes off to you because whatever the reason for your forecasts you are gaining great practice, heck when the weather calls for sun I pack an umbrella so dont be afraid to be wrong it's the mystery of mother nature, it's a hard job to take on. I take your track to mean it could go one of two ways not encompassing the entire cone but viewing it as two paths of possibility. As with any storm I always say we will know where its going when it gets there! Best of luck to you and by the way i believe we are neighbors your in plantation, i am in davie

i am indeed training, and im researshing about the NOAA internships.
thank you for the complement.

[Evil Jeremy]

TD7 now Tropical Storm Gordon

Based on recon data, Gordon has formed. we currently have it as a 45 MPH Tropical Storm with a 1006 MB pressure. This is based off of the latest recon info. No strengthening is forecasted for the next 18 hours.

Over the last few hours, convection has increased, and an ill-defined center can be seen. Overall organization is also improving.

Right now, we have Gordon heading WNW at 5 MPH.

Even though some forecasts show Gordon moving north, I don’t see anything that can cause that, at least not before the Caribbean islands. Our cone shows it continuing heading WNW for the following day or so, followed by a turn to the NW, and finally North. This takes it a little west of Bermuda as a Tropical Storm. This track is a compromise in between the Global Models and the possibility of it turning west.

The rest of the forecast will be up later.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

I know my info right now might not be completly accurate, and i like to wait for the first official advisory to be released before posting all of my predictions.

Post it before NHC does. If you do it after, people are going to think you copied from NHC or purposely deviated from NHC in case you were right. It'll be fine if you are completely off. It's called learning, and frankly, maybe you turn out to be right.

Personally, on the few outlooks for both severe wx and tropical wx I do once in a while, I rush to complete and post it before any official sources do, and then compare my outlook with their outlook, and look to see what I did wrong, and why there is a disagreement (or in some cases, why there is unanimous agreement).

As an aside...for whatever it is worth...anyone with inside knowledge can get at the forecast tracks from the NHC sometimes two hours (or more) before the actual forecast is released to the public distrubution points. And anyone sitting on the NWS conference calls has the forecast one hour before the public.

Hence...the only pure way to get a potentially uncontaminated track is to release it 2 hours before the NHC release time....and even then it may not be 100% clean.

Otherwise, someone who could get to this information could use the NHC track as a starting point.

I am only pointing out the potential...not making reference to any paticular forecast (or forecaster) specifically.

MW

Good Point MW. The NHC forecasts are usually made 1 to 2 hours ahead of releasing to the public. However, they have made changes up to minutes before the releasing the forecast packages. So even if you listen to the conference call or go online to the private NHC intergovernmental website to get the latest data, it is still subject to change.

[Evil Jeremy]

Gordon Strengthening faster than expected.

Winds are now estimated to be at 65 MPH, although I am tempted to raise it to 70 MPH, just shy of hurricane strength. Its pressure is now estimated to be around 997 MB. Gordon can become a hurricane anytime over the next 6-18 hours today. Right now I forecast a peak intensity of 100 MPH winds, but this can go up later today.

Gordon is heading to the NNW at 7 MPH, and a turn to the north is also expected when reaching Hurricane status, or possibly sooner.

After Gordon passes 35N, the weakness in the ridge created by Florence will start to close up, allowing for bigger chances of a East Coast hit this year.

[Evil Jeremy]

Gordon now a hurricane.

Gordon has developed an eye wall, and a pretty organized one. Therefore, winds are now estimated to be at 80 MPH. pressure is also now estimated to be at 991 MB.

Gordon is now moving to the North at 8 MPH, although we have spotted some wobbles to the East.

No new info is ready at this time. The next new advisory no Hurricane Gordon will be online tomorrow morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane Gordon moving over the mid-Atlantic.

This morning, we estimate Gordon’s winds to be at 80 MPH, with a pressure of 985 MB. We expect Gordon to continue to strengthen, and he could become a Category 2 Hurricane later today.

Movement appears to be at around 10 MPH going NNE. This is expected to continue for the next 36 hours.

The latest models show Gordon continuing to head North or NNE for the rest of its lifetime, and they are all in good agreement, or at least they are until days four and five.

This storm is a very important storm, not because of anything it has actually done, but because it plays a key roll in TS8’s movement.

INITIAL 70KT
12HR 75KT
24HR 80KT
48HR 90KT
72HR 85KT
<b>USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 75KT
120HR 65KT