Florence has at last begun to strengthen…. at last.
Beginning at this advisory, we may issue different wind speeds than shown in the NHC Official Advisories.
Because of it getting closer to Bermuda, and its outrageously large wind field, we have begun to recommend not only a hurricane watch, but a tropical storm warning as well, both for Bermuda. We have done this because with the wind field, Bermuda could begin experiencing TS force conditions within 36 hours, and hurricane force in around 48.
We might be a little generous, but we have raised the winds to 55 MPH because of increasing organization with the storm. The pressure has remained somewhat the same, with us estimating it at 999 MB now. The storm seems to be developing Hurricane like features now, such as a well defined center. This helps derimine the direction of the storm. Now we believe it is starting to move towards the WNW or NW at 15 MPH. we expect this motion to continue for 24-36 hours now before turning even more north.
Our new cone has no changes what so ever.
The rest of the update will be online at 5:00PM EDT today.
HH Hurricane Florence Forecast # Special Advisory 13
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Evil Jeremy
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Evil Jeremy
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Hurricane Watch issued for Bermuda
Even though it wasnt issued, we advise that a Tropical Storm warning be placed in effect for the Island too.
The "HHRFC Storm Alert" that was in affect for parts of the caribbean have been discontinued.
Our movement forecast appeared to be correct, as it is now moving NW at 15 MPH. this is the begining of the curve that the storm has been forecasted to make for ages now. our new cone takes Florence right over Bermuda as a Cat 2 storm.
On a side note, what was "Invest 91L" which was injested into Florence seems to be dis attacking. this should be watched.
INITIAL 45KT
12HR VT 55KT
24HR VT 65KT
36HR VT 75KT
48HR VT 85KT
72HR VT 95KT
96HR VT 85KT
120HR VT 70KT
Even though it wasnt issued, we advise that a Tropical Storm warning be placed in effect for the Island too.
The "HHRFC Storm Alert" that was in affect for parts of the caribbean have been discontinued.
Our movement forecast appeared to be correct, as it is now moving NW at 15 MPH. this is the begining of the curve that the storm has been forecasted to make for ages now. our new cone takes Florence right over Bermuda as a Cat 2 storm.
On a side note, what was "Invest 91L" which was injested into Florence seems to be dis attacking. this should be watched.
INITIAL 45KT
12HR VT 55KT
24HR VT 65KT
36HR VT 75KT
48HR VT 85KT
72HR VT 95KT
96HR VT 85KT
120HR VT 70KT
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence entering a rapid strengthening phase.
A Hurricane Watch is in affect for Bermuda. We advise that a Tropical Storm Warning should be issued. Regardless, we will recommend a Hurricane warning in the morning if one is not issued. Residents in Bermuda should be preparing for a Major Hurricane right now.
While the official intensity is currently at 65 MPH, we advise it to be at 70 MPH, just shy of Hurricane strength. We think that hurricane force winds will be seen when Recon enters the storm in a few hours now from now.
The official pressure is at 994 MB, but we feel that it is slightly lower than that, possibility at 992 MB.
Right now, Florence is moving at 15 MPH going NW, although it has been wobbling up and down recently.
Track wise, we are forecasting a direct hit on Bermuda in 40 hours now as a borderline Cat 2/3 hurricane.
INITIAL 60KT
12HR 70KT
24HR 80KT
48HR 95KT
72HR 85KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 70KT
120HR 60KT
A Hurricane Watch is in affect for Bermuda. We advise that a Tropical Storm Warning should be issued. Regardless, we will recommend a Hurricane warning in the morning if one is not issued. Residents in Bermuda should be preparing for a Major Hurricane right now.
While the official intensity is currently at 65 MPH, we advise it to be at 70 MPH, just shy of Hurricane strength. We think that hurricane force winds will be seen when Recon enters the storm in a few hours now from now.
The official pressure is at 994 MB, but we feel that it is slightly lower than that, possibility at 992 MB.
Right now, Florence is moving at 15 MPH going NW, although it has been wobbling up and down recently.
Track wise, we are forecasting a direct hit on Bermuda in 40 hours now as a borderline Cat 2/3 hurricane.
INITIAL 60KT
12HR 70KT
24HR 80KT
48HR 95KT
72HR 85KT
USE WITH CAUTION:
96HR 70KT
120HR 60KT
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Evil Jeremy
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Because of the strengthing of Florence, and it huge size, we have issued a "HHRFC Storm Alert" for parts of the NE Atlantic coastline. the main effects should be some gusty winds and some rain. in addition, there should be high surf and dangerous rip currents. so, becuase of this, we have issued the "HFRFC Storm Alert".
Remember that the Storm Alert is not official in any way!!!!!
Remember that the Storm Alert is not official in any way!!!!!
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence Is nearly a hurricane now.
As of now, we are advising that the hurricane watch for Bermuda should be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.
A “HHRFC Storm Alert” remains in affect for parts of the NE Atlantic coastline. The effects that should be felt from Florence in that particular areas area are rain and high surf.
Some of the latest model runs forecast the storm recurving sooner than expected, so we have added in that factor to our new cone.
Our advisory still keeps Florence as a 70 MPH storm, on the verge of becoming a hurricane, in which it is expected to become today.
Bermuda, now under a recommended hurricane warning, should be done preparing for Florence. If you are still preparing, your time is running out to finish!
On our new cone, Florence will become a Cat 1 today while making a turn to the NW. On day 2, it heads north, still as a Cat 1, but It could be a Cat 2 at this point. On day 3, Florence makes a sharp turn to the NE as it passes near Bermuda as a Cat 3. The forecast beyond then is uncertain right now.
INITIAL 60 KT
12HR VT 65 KT
24HR VT 75 KT
36HR VT 85 KT
48HR VT 90 KT
72HR VT 85 KT
96HR VT 70 KT
120HR VT 60 KT
As of now, we are advising that the hurricane watch for Bermuda should be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.
A “HHRFC Storm Alert” remains in affect for parts of the NE Atlantic coastline. The effects that should be felt from Florence in that particular areas area are rain and high surf.
Some of the latest model runs forecast the storm recurving sooner than expected, so we have added in that factor to our new cone.
Our advisory still keeps Florence as a 70 MPH storm, on the verge of becoming a hurricane, in which it is expected to become today.
Bermuda, now under a recommended hurricane warning, should be done preparing for Florence. If you are still preparing, your time is running out to finish!
On our new cone, Florence will become a Cat 1 today while making a turn to the NW. On day 2, it heads north, still as a Cat 1, but It could be a Cat 2 at this point. On day 3, Florence makes a sharp turn to the NE as it passes near Bermuda as a Cat 3. The forecast beyond then is uncertain right now.
INITIAL 60 KT
12HR VT 65 KT
24HR VT 75 KT
36HR VT 85 KT
48HR VT 90 KT
72HR VT 85 KT
96HR VT 70 KT
120HR VT 60 KT
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence still not a hurricane
A Hurricane Warning is advised for the island nation of Bermuda. This means that hurricane conditions can be felt soon, generally within 24 hours.
Estimated winds by the HHRFC are currently at 70 MPH, despite the lowering in the NHC forecast.
The current direction of Florence is uncertain, as it has been wobbling back and forth recently, but our forecast puts it just a little south of NNW, so we have it heading at 13 MPH going NW. This should change very quickly, and in 6-12 hours, it should be heading NNW or due north.
The rest of the forecast will be up soon.
A Hurricane Warning is advised for the island nation of Bermuda. This means that hurricane conditions can be felt soon, generally within 24 hours.
Estimated winds by the HHRFC are currently at 70 MPH, despite the lowering in the NHC forecast.
The current direction of Florence is uncertain, as it has been wobbling back and forth recently, but our forecast puts it just a little south of NNW, so we have it heading at 13 MPH going NW. This should change very quickly, and in 6-12 hours, it should be heading NNW or due north.
The rest of the forecast will be up soon.
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Evil Jeremy
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After receiving new information, we are tempted to upgrade Florence to a hurricane, but we want to be sure. Once recon data comes in, we sill make our final forecast for tonight.
The pressure we feel has dropped to 990 MB, which indicates strengthening.
We still see the storm heading 13 MPH going NW, but this will go more north very soon.
We expect steady strengthen for the next 2 ½ days, with some very slow strengthen after that.
Current - 70mph
12 hrs - 80mph
24 hrs - 90mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 100mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 105mph
60 hrs - 95mph
72 hrs - 80mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 75mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 60mph - Extratropical
Forecasters Silberman and CrazyC83
This concludes the Midnight advisory.
The pressure we feel has dropped to 990 MB, which indicates strengthening.
We still see the storm heading 13 MPH going NW, but this will go more north very soon.
We expect steady strengthen for the next 2 ½ days, with some very slow strengthen after that.
Current - 70mph
12 hrs - 80mph
24 hrs - 90mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 100mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 105mph
60 hrs - 95mph
72 hrs - 80mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 75mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 60mph - Extratropical
Forecasters Silberman and CrazyC83
This concludes the Midnight advisory.
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Evil Jeremy
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New Vortex message has arrived, showing hurricane level pressures, thus we issue a special advisory.
We strongly recommend a Hurricane warning for Bermuda.
Florence is no longer moving to the NNW, but now to the NW as predicted earlier.
We now have Florence as a Hurricane. Its new pressure is at 981 MB. A closed eye wall has also been located, thus we upgrade our storm!
Given the pressure, we have Florence at a 75 MPH Category 1 hurricane, although it can possibly be an 80 MPH hurricane, given the very low pressure.
No other changes have been made now.
Current - 75mph
12 hrs - 85mph
24 hrs - 95mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 105mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 110mph
60 hrs - 110mph
72 hrs - 85mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 75mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 65mph - Extratropical
We strongly recommend a Hurricane warning for Bermuda.
Florence is no longer moving to the NNW, but now to the NW as predicted earlier.
We now have Florence as a Hurricane. Its new pressure is at 981 MB. A closed eye wall has also been located, thus we upgrade our storm!
Given the pressure, we have Florence at a 75 MPH Category 1 hurricane, although it can possibly be an 80 MPH hurricane, given the very low pressure.
No other changes have been made now.
Current - 75mph
12 hrs - 85mph
24 hrs - 95mph - SW of Bermuda
36 hrs - 105mph - North of Bermuda
48 hrs - 110mph
60 hrs - 110mph
72 hrs - 85mph - Transition to Extratropical
96 hrs - 75mph - Extratropical
120 hrs - 65mph - Extratropical
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Evil Jeremy
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Hurricane Florence continues to strengthen.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the island nation of Bermuda.
A “HHRFC Storm Alert” has been issued for Maine, Nova Scotia, and New Foundland. A Storm Alert in this case means that Maine will have high surf and rain, while Nova Scotia might have some TS force winds and New Foundland could have hurricane winds in upcoming days.
Hurricane Florence continues to strengthen as it nears Bermuda. Right now, our estimates have it as an 90 MPH hurricane, but so not to make a big jump, we have only raised the winds up too 85 MPH. Rapid strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours, and we here expect Florence to be a borderline Cat 2/3 while coming close to Bermuda.
Florence is also getting better organized, as an eye is now forming. Outflow is also improving, despite some shear to its right.
According to the latest official advisory, Florence is heading to the NNW at 13 MPH. We have Florence moving due north at 12 MPH, and this is expected to continue for the next 12 hours.
For our cone, we have made a few changes because of the strengthening of Hurricane Florence. When it gets to Bermuda, we expect a very strong Cat 2 hurricane. There is still a strong possibility that Florence can be a Cat 3 hurricane when it gets to Bermuda.
Residents in New Foundland should be reading advisories, because you all might be next.
Current - 85mph
12 hrs - 95mph
24 hrs - 105mph
36 hrs - 110mph
48 hrs - 100mph
60 hrs - 90mph
72 hrs - 85mph
96 hrs - 75mph
120 hrs - 65mph
Forecaster Silberman
A hurricane warning has been issued for the island nation of Bermuda.
A “HHRFC Storm Alert” has been issued for Maine, Nova Scotia, and New Foundland. A Storm Alert in this case means that Maine will have high surf and rain, while Nova Scotia might have some TS force winds and New Foundland could have hurricane winds in upcoming days.
Hurricane Florence continues to strengthen as it nears Bermuda. Right now, our estimates have it as an 90 MPH hurricane, but so not to make a big jump, we have only raised the winds up too 85 MPH. Rapid strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours, and we here expect Florence to be a borderline Cat 2/3 while coming close to Bermuda.
Florence is also getting better organized, as an eye is now forming. Outflow is also improving, despite some shear to its right.
According to the latest official advisory, Florence is heading to the NNW at 13 MPH. We have Florence moving due north at 12 MPH, and this is expected to continue for the next 12 hours.
For our cone, we have made a few changes because of the strengthening of Hurricane Florence. When it gets to Bermuda, we expect a very strong Cat 2 hurricane. There is still a strong possibility that Florence can be a Cat 3 hurricane when it gets to Bermuda.
Residents in New Foundland should be reading advisories, because you all might be next.
Current - 85mph
12 hrs - 95mph
24 hrs - 105mph
36 hrs - 110mph
48 hrs - 100mph
60 hrs - 90mph
72 hrs - 85mph
96 hrs - 75mph
120 hrs - 65mph
Forecaster Silberman
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence begins its transition into an extra-tropical system.
The TS Warning for the island nation of Bermuda will likely be discontinued later tonight.
Pressure is estimated to have risen to 979 MB, and winds have weakened to 80 MPH.
Florence is heading to the NW at 17 MPH, and this direction is expected to continue with an increase of speed.
Over the next day, we expect Florence to weaken into a Tropical Storm.
This is our last advisory on Florence, as it is becoming Extra-Tropical.
The TS Warning for the island nation of Bermuda will likely be discontinued later tonight.
Pressure is estimated to have risen to 979 MB, and winds have weakened to 80 MPH.
Florence is heading to the NW at 17 MPH, and this direction is expected to continue with an increase of speed.
Over the next day, we expect Florence to weaken into a Tropical Storm.
This is our last advisory on Florence, as it is becoming Extra-Tropical.
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Evil Jeremy
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Florence back down to a Tropical Storm.
Tropical Storm watches are up for parts of the Atlantic Canada. We recommend that these be upgraded to TS Warnings this morning.
Due to lack of organization, and an open center, I have downgraded Florence to a 70 MPH storm, although I was tempted to lower it further. Pressure looks like its going up fast, as we now have it estimated at 984 MB.
Nearly Extra-Tropical Storm Florence is accelerating to the NNE or NE. its speed is expected to increase, as it does to most storms while turning Extra-Tropical.
Speaking of turning Extra-Tropical, I would say that Florence is about 33% extra-tropical right now, and on the increase.
One of the bad parts of a system becoming extra-tropical is that the Winfield expands. Therefore, we expect the TS wind field to possibly grow back to somewhere near its 405 Mile wide glory.
Path wise, there is an 30% chance that New Foundland can get a direct hit, but that wont matter, seeing on how the winds will be exceeding the center by hundreds of miles! After its “vacation” in NF, it will head towards the East, and pass South of Greenland on days 4 and 5.
Normally, I wouldn’t be issuing any more advisories on Florence anymore, as stated last night, but because of new Watches, I decided to keep making these advisories up until it passes the Atlantic Canada.
I will only issue 2 more advisories on this system, to devote my attention to Gordon “Invest 94L”
Current – 70 mph 33% Extra tropical
12 hrs - 65mph 40% Extra tropical
24 hrs - 60mph 55% Extra tropical
36 hrs - 55mph 65% Extra tropical
48 hrs - 45mph 85% Extra tropical
60 hrs - 40mph Completely Extra tropical
Forecaster Silberman
Tropical Storm watches are up for parts of the Atlantic Canada. We recommend that these be upgraded to TS Warnings this morning.
Due to lack of organization, and an open center, I have downgraded Florence to a 70 MPH storm, although I was tempted to lower it further. Pressure looks like its going up fast, as we now have it estimated at 984 MB.
Nearly Extra-Tropical Storm Florence is accelerating to the NNE or NE. its speed is expected to increase, as it does to most storms while turning Extra-Tropical.
Speaking of turning Extra-Tropical, I would say that Florence is about 33% extra-tropical right now, and on the increase.
One of the bad parts of a system becoming extra-tropical is that the Winfield expands. Therefore, we expect the TS wind field to possibly grow back to somewhere near its 405 Mile wide glory.
Path wise, there is an 30% chance that New Foundland can get a direct hit, but that wont matter, seeing on how the winds will be exceeding the center by hundreds of miles! After its “vacation” in NF, it will head towards the East, and pass South of Greenland on days 4 and 5.
Normally, I wouldn’t be issuing any more advisories on Florence anymore, as stated last night, but because of new Watches, I decided to keep making these advisories up until it passes the Atlantic Canada.
I will only issue 2 more advisories on this system, to devote my attention to Gordon “Invest 94L”
Current – 70 mph 33% Extra tropical
12 hrs - 65mph 40% Extra tropical
24 hrs - 60mph 55% Extra tropical
36 hrs - 55mph 65% Extra tropical
48 hrs - 45mph 85% Extra tropical
60 hrs - 40mph Completely Extra tropical
Forecaster Silberman
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