Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

[boca]

Its a viable forecast no flame throwing at you at all on your forecast, but at Shooters maybe I'll spill a drink on ya.

[mike815]

I was speaking with Aric Dunn tonight and we were chatting about the eventual track on Gordon. We noticed somethings that were happening that was happening with Gordon Currently. Aric brought up that it might get stuck in the COL region. Well GFS rolls out there there ya go. Has Gordo wandering about a bit out there through day 5.


In this first image we see it dramatically smaller than his bigger sister Florence down at it's current Position.



48 Hours From now


72 Hours From now


90 Hours


Finally 120 Hours.. cause anything past 5 days is total crap as far as track.


Imagine that Gordon gets caught under the same ridging that was supposed to remain weak.



Feel free to bash me all you want and I'm not saying it's going to hit the US as I am not a wonderful forecaster but, I think the GFS 00Z solution may be a much more viable solution than such absolutely likely quick recurve as been stated here. I am just posting my opinion but, I'm also backing it up.

I really don't think that this system is going to be able to recurve through such a small weakness as it is right now. Call me a skeptic or whatever you want.

I do believe that it will recurve eventually but, not until the next trough comes down to tear open a new hole into a weakness. Likely the storm will meander a bit until steering currents become as such to sufficiently take the storm away. As it will be stuck in a COL. Col is the area between two high presures where the steering currents are weak



Flame away.

IM WITH U BUDDY ON THIS ONE THE WEAKNESS IS SMALL STICK IT TO THE MAN!!! GO GET EM!!!!
NRL Link


lookin here its not really movin at all weak steering

OK HERO I SEE

-EDIT: Changed the longest URL in the free world into a hyperlink to ensure high morale and cookies to other board members. -senorpepr

[gatorcane]

SouthFloridaWx, as you know, I theorized this possibility of no immediate recurvature earlier today and looks like you and some others are joining
the bandwagon -

I think the possibility does exist. Let's see how things play out. Excellent support with your graphics by the way.

[boca]

I think Gordon will travel more west than people believe until it hits the trough in the plains that moves east off the east coast in 3 days. I think Bermuda will have another threat from Gordon.

[Stratosphere747]

It's already moving at a 315 heading.....

[mike815]

IT WAS...... HEADED AT 315 now its SLOWED

[Aric Dunn]

more likely drifting now

[Aric Dunn]

yes i am now a category 1 hurricane awsome

[mike815]

CONGRATES ARIC ON YOUR ACOMPLISHMENT CAT ONE WHOO HOOO HIGH FIVE?
WHAT AN ACOMPLISHMENT u must be very proud

[Aric Dunn]

CONGRATES ARIC ON YOUR ACOMPLISHMENT CAT ONW WHOO HOOO HIGH FIVE?
WHAT AN ACOMPLISHMENT u must be very proud

i am it took effort and diliegence .. i hope maybe one day i can be a Cat five

[Aric Dunn]

yeah anyway... a more WNW to W motion should resume later........but it will be very slow

[mike815]

YEA darn no one is up i guess dt and wxman are sleepin with there 400-700 mean flow chart darn it.

[Normandy]

Gordon seems to be lifting straight north, the recurve looks like it may be happening sooner

[wxman57]

Gordon seems to be lifting straight north, the recurve looks like it may be happening sooner

You are correct. Gordon will not be moving west, west-northwest, or northwest. It's heading out to sea now.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is an import peice that I didn't know would help break down the ridge. Gordon is now moving slower than last night.

500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE
HAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS
320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE
TO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH
FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
BREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON
AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...

[cycloneye]

12/1145 UTC 23.3N 57.8W T3.5/3.5 GORDON -- Atlantic Ocean

[Hyperstorm]

Gordon does not appear to be strengthening this morning. While the outflow is looking fairly good to the north and east and its structure is intact and reminiscent of a strong tropical storm, deep convection has mostly diminished. There is only moderate convection throughout the circulation. I think there is a reason for that lack of deep convection during what is supposed to be prime time of day for convection development over water.....upwelled waters.

You may remember that last week Florence moved over this same area as a very large tropical storm. This likely caused upwelled waters at the surface. Gordon is currently moving over those same waters and is experiencing some SW shear that is undercutting its southern periphery. All of this should slow/halt any significant development today. Later today and tonight as the system moves away from that area, the deep convection should re-develop. That should bump it to a hurricane.

And northward it goes...

[Thunder44]

696
NOUS42 KNHC 121200
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0800 AM EDT TUE 12 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-105

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 12/1800Z ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON CANCELED BY NHC AT 12/1100Z.

Today's mission has been cancelled.

[WmE]

That's weird. Why did they cancel the flight?

[senorpepr]

That's weird. Why did they cancel the flight?

Lack of a threat to land. No reason to waste money on a system that won't affect land.