Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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boca
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#141 Postby boca » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:28 am

True Bailey1777 point taken but I think this will start recurving NE of the islands,just a prediction that I hope is right for our Caribbean friends.
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jusforsean
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#142 Postby jusforsean » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:31 am

cycloneye wrote:12:00z Full Fisk Image

Dont look now at this 12:00z image. :)


cannot access it wants a password cyclone????
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#143 Postby hiflyer » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:33 am

cycloneye wrote:12:00z Full Fisk Image

Dont look now at this 12:00z image. :)


"Houston...we have liftoff"

Very impressive for being on that side of the pond
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#144 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:35 am

I know that the Namma project was going to investigate this system today.HenkL.any word on the mission this morning?
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boca
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#145 Postby boca » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:36 am

People you better hope the models are right for recurvature this looks like a monster size storm in the making.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/avn.jpg
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HurricaneMaster_PR
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#146 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:37 am

WOW!
Image
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Buck
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#147 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:37 am

Holy junk!!

This thing looks FIERCE this morning!
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#148 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:43 am

12/1200 UTC 12.4N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#149 Postby HenkL » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:44 am

Forecast from the NAMMA project:

"NAMMA weather forecast Sept 12 2006
September 12th, 2006

NAMMA forecast Sept 12 2006

Today is a fly day. The massive convective system has come off the coast and is moving to the west at 10 to15 knots. Based on satellite imageries, the circulation center at 06UTC today is located approximately at 11.5N/20W. Newly developed strong convection with a lot of lightning can be seen northwest to the center starting at 0230 UTC. Dust and dry air is entrained into the system from west and northwest. GFS 00Z run predicted the system propagates rapidly to 12.7N/31W at 12Z Sept 13th, to 12.5N/38W at 12Z Sept 14th and to 14N/45W at 12Z Sept 15th."
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#150 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:45 am

Isn't a 1.5 the number for a TD?
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#151 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:46 am

cycloneye wrote:I know that the Namma project was going to investigate this system today.HenkL.any word on the mission this morning?


From their realtime tracker.

Image
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#152 Postby TheRingo » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:46 am

are there any tracking models yet?
only seeing this gfs, has it going west for awhile.

Image
Last edited by TheRingo on Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#153 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:48 am

Thanks HenkL and P.K for posting the information and the google graphic.
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#154 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:52 am

WHXX04 KWBC 121245
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 20.3 270./17.1
6 13.0 21.5 272./11.4
12 12.9 23.2 269./16.3
18 12.7 24.6 260./14.4
24 12.9 26.1 279./14.2
30 13.5 28.0 286./19.1
36 13.3 30.1 265./20.9
42 13.4 31.6 275./15.1
48 14.1 34.1 287./24.8
54 14.0 36.2 267./20.4
60 14.1 37.8 271./15.7
66 14.6 39.3 289./15.1
72 15.1 40.8 290./15.5
78 15.8 42.3 296./16.3
84 16.4 43.6 292./13.3
90 17.0 44.5 305./11.5
96 17.9 45.5 311./12.7
102 18.6 46.6 303./12.6
108 19.1 47.6 296./10.0
114 19.3 48.5 288./ 8.8
120 19.6 49.2 286./ 7.6
126 20.0 50.0 298./ 8.0

6z GFDL.
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#155 Postby senorpepr » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:01 am

I didn't see anyone post the NAMMA Plan of the Day:

All times are Cape Verde Time which is one hour behind Zulu/UTC.

Date of Plan: 12 Sept 06
Flight Status: Fly
Forecaster Meeting 6:00 AM
Mission Science Weather Briefing: 6:45 AM (0745 UTC)
Go/No-Go Decision: 7:00 AM
Power On Aircraft: 8:00 AM
Preflight Briefing: 09:30 AM
Door Close: 10:30 AM
Projected Takeoff: 1100 CVT (1200 UTC)
Projected Landing: 1900 CVT (2000 UTC)
Post-Mission Debrief: 7:45 PM

Mission Summary/Objectives
Day 1 investigation of strong African Easterly Wave emerging off the coast. The length of the mission could be 8 hours long.
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#156 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:02 am

Can't believe that this isn't already a TS -- at least! :eek:
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#157 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:02 am

TD #8

982
WHXX01 KWBC 121301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1200 060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 22.2W 13.0N 24.9W 13.5N 28.1W 14.0N 31.5W
BAMM 12.4N 22.2W 12.8N 25.2W 13.2N 28.8W 13.6N 32.9W
A98E 12.4N 22.2W 12.5N 25.7W 12.8N 29.2W 13.0N 32.7W
LBAR 12.4N 22.2W 12.6N 25.5W 12.9N 29.1W 13.2N 33.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 35.0W 16.7N 40.5W 19.8N 43.4W 21.4N 44.5W
BAMM 13.9N 37.3W 14.4N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 16.8N 51.3W
A98E 13.3N 35.9W 14.1N 41.1W 15.4N 45.0W 17.9N 47.8W
LBAR 13.6N 37.8W 13.5N 45.9W 16.3N 47.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS
DSHP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 22.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 18.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 15.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Thunder44
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#158 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:04 am

NONAME on NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#159 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:06 am

Thunder44 wrote:NONAME on NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


TD 8 is here
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#160 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:06 am

P.K. wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I know that the Namma project was going to investigate this system today.HenkL.any word on the mission this morning?


From their realtime tracker.

Image


I downloaded the program but I'm not getting the flight track on my GE. What did you do?
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