Will a system form in W Caribbean this year

[boca]

Because of the prediction of a weak EL Nino I think the Caribbean will be closed this year due to lack of moisture down there. The Eastern Pacific seems to rob the Caribbean of moisture which are ingredients for development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would say 100% yes. Alberto formed there in June.

[boca]

I'd never seen the Caribbean as a whole look cloud free as it does now.

[Dean4Storms]

Still a bit early to write off the western Carib. IMO. You can get late season developers down there when fronts start getting down there and meeting up with TW's.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Still a bit early to write off the western Carib. IMO. You can get late season developers down there when fronts start getting down there and meeting up with TW's.

With all this Fish action(sorry Bermuda) the heat potential west of 70 is going to be incredible for there not to be a storm in the carribean or gulf..

[caribepr]

With all this Fish action(sorry Bermuda) the heat potential west of 70 is going to be incredible for there not to be a storm in the carribean or gulf..

Sorry, Bermuda?? Is that sort of like, "With all that GOM action last year (sorry Sanibel)..."?

Please think about what you post

[gatorcane]

absolutely yes. I think a hurricane (maybe major) will form there before this season is done

[DESTRUCTION5]

With all this Fish action(sorry Bermuda) the heat potential west of 70 is going to be incredible for there not to be a storm in the carribean or gulf..

Sorry, Bermuda?? Is that sort of like, "With all that GOM action last year (sorry Sanibel)..."?

Please think about what you post

Well it did not make landfall but they felt the effects so it technically was a fish...Thats all I meant..

[SouthFloridawx]

Because of the prediction of a weak EL Nino I think the Caribbean will be closed this year due to lack of moisture down there. The Eastern Pacific seems to rob the Caribbean of moisture which are ingredients for development.

I do not think that El Nino is causing lack of development in the Caribbean and nor do I think there has been an increase of windshear of this area. We have not seen a Tropical Wave move into this region since Florence Developed. There is windshear caused by florence and a a newly developing ULL or Upper Level trough to the north of the region. As seen in the 200mb vorticity shown below in the link I have provided.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

The following link is a five day view of the Windshear tendencies and you can tell by that there has not been much shear in the Western Caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... tjava.html

If the lack of windshear persists and you can flame me if you want once we get a decent wave in the vicinity we may see development. But, I do not believe el nino is the cause of the lack of development. I do think Florence has stolen much of the show causing a lack of energy that it takes to get systems going there and pulled it north with it. Also the Central Atlantic Troughing no there has allowed Florence/Gordon to pull northward not allowing it to move into the Caribbean.

There is a wave moving in there now but, will be stunted by the upper low developing to it's north.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif




I do not think we are done for development in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Well 95 was a "fish" year and Opal formed in October so I think we will have to watch closer to home coming up

[wxmann_91]

Caribbean is not climatologically favored for formation in August and September. Wait until October. But by then, el nino might already have an effect on wind shear.

[Sanibel]

If you look closely you can see the "dry line" pulled all the way down into the Caribbean on that satellite image. There's obviously some kind of upper hostility, Atlantic air, or subsidence plunging down into the west Atlantic basin.

My guess is, yes, we should see this area become favorable later on. The side effect of clear air is more sun hitting the sea surface. This would be the place to watch when it becomes the only favorable area.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you look closely you can see the "dry line" pulled all the way down into the Caribbean on that satellite image. There's obviously some kind of upper hostility, Atlantic air, or subsidence plunging down into the west Atlantic basin.

My guess is, yes, we should see this area become favorable later on. The side effect of clear air is more sun hitting the sea surface. This would be the place to watch when it becomes the only favorable area.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
Well there is some subsidence but, there has been an extreme lack of Convergence due to the fact of nothing there to converge in the wake of Florence. The wave moving in now is the only one for the last week or so I can remember.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Starting in late September and into October I think we will see some Western Caribbean storms, and they should track up into Florida, and maybe points North in the SE Atlantic Coast, or Northern Bahamas. I still see a mean NNE movement for the Atlantic Basin in September and October; which is why we are having the Fish Storms Currently BTW.