T Storm Helene Advisories=Last Advisory Written by NHC

[drezee]

982
WHXX01 KWBC 121301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1200 060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 22.2W 13.0N 24.9W 13.5N 28.1W 14.0N 31.5W
BAMM 12.4N 22.2W 12.8N 25.2W 13.2N 28.8W 13.6N 32.9W
A98E 12.4N 22.2W 12.5N 25.7W 12.8N 29.2W 13.0N 32.7W
LBAR 12.4N 22.2W 12.6N 25.5W 12.9N 29.1W 13.2N 33.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 35.0W 16.7N 40.5W 19.8N 43.4W 21.4N 44.5W
BAMM 13.9N 37.3W 14.4N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 16.8N 51.3W
A98E 13.3N 35.9W 14.1N 41.1W 15.4N 45.0W 17.9N 47.8W
LBAR 13.6N 37.8W 13.5N 45.9W 16.3N 47.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS
DSHP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 22.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 18.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 15.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[mike815]

yes indeed first adv. at 11.

[cycloneye]

Pebbles,this is the official advisory thread for TD 8,where you will get all the official advisories,so dont be confused with any other thread.

[gatorcane]

Luis will this advisory also contain the NHC cone?

[cycloneye]

Luis will this advisory also contain the NHC cone?

Sure.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC should skip the TD formality and go straight to hurricane with this baby.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Ivanhater]

The NHC should skip the TD formality and go straight to hurricane with this baby.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

My God!!...now THAT looks impressive

[gatorcane]

The NHC should skip the TD formality and go straight to hurricane with this baby.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

My God!!...now THAT looks impressive

Let me also add my 2 cents:

[Ivanhater]

The NHC should skip the TD formality and go straight to hurricane with this baby.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

My God!!...now THAT looks impressive

Let me also add my 2 cents:

lol...certainly not what I was expecting to see this morning, this one is not wasting anytime

[senorpepr]

Please keep in mind that this thread is for advisories only. We have another thread dedicated to satellite imagery and analyses.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.5 N...23.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED
FROM AFRICA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS
FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO REPORTS OF
NORTHERLY 19 KT AND SOUTHERLY 10 KT WINDS...FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS PBCJ AND UCAB RESPECTIVELY...CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/16. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD....THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.

THIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON
MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA. THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE
BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
AND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 12.5N 23.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 12.7N 25.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 13.0N 28.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 13.5N 31.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 34.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 47.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Evil Jeremy]

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 23.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 23.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 22.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.7N 25.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 28.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.5N 31.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 23.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


NNNN

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...DEPRESSION NEARING STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 23.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 26.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.3N 29.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.6N 33.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 36.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 23.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED WITH FAIRLY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE CENTER IS
STILL RATHER BROAD AND ELONGATED...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD AND BECOMING MORE
SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. A SHIP REPORT FROM A
VESSEL WITH CALL SIGN OVZV2 OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 1008.7 MB SOME 180 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WIND OBSERVATION WAS IN
CONVECTION...PROBABLY A LOCALIZED SQUALL...AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. MOREOVER...A QUALITY CONTROL
CHECK OF THIS SHIP BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT
ITS WIND MEASUREMENTS WERE A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH AND ITS PRESSURE
HAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 MB LOW. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE SYSTEM IS
NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE NAMED TONIGHT OR
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY PREVAILS OVER THE
AREA...AND SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40-45W NORTH OF 15N...BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING
THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS AS INPUT...SHOWS WEAK SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. I AM NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SO FAVORABLE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OUTPUT AND JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN DONE FOR THIS
PACKAGE...CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FORWARD SPEED
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER. CURRENT MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SUGGESTING A
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BY DAY 3 HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
RESPOND TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF 50W...AND
BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT. THE LATEST GFS...U.K. MET
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 12.0N 23.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 12.0N 26.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.3N 29.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 12.6N 33.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 36.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 42.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 46.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 130247
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...DEPRESSION PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT IS ESTIMATED TO BE CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...350
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N...25.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 25.3W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 25.3W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 24.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.1N 27.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.4N 31.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.9N 34.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.3N 43.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 25.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. AN
AVERAGE POSITION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION GYRE IS USED FOR THE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS NUDGED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... IN AGREEMENT
WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS SOUTH
OF 12N. CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION IS SCANT...
THOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND HEAVY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT
AND IS SUPPORTED BY BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS FROM QUIKSCAT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND EXPERIENCING
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN
SHIPS... WHICH SEEMS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST IN MAKING THE DEPRESSION
ALMOST A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE GFDL HAS A SEEMINGLY MORE
REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGE... SLOW AT FIRST
THEN MORE RAPID IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND IS USED AS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. A STRENGTHENING
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO START MOVING MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN EARLIER TODAY AND... CONSEQUENTLY... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3-5. THE FORECAST
IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND CLOSE TO
THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 11.8N 25.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 12.1N 27.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 12.4N 31.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 34.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 38.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 43.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 50.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 130244
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. AN
AVERAGE POSITION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION GYRE IS USED FOR THE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS NUDGED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... IN AGREEMENT
WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS SOUTH
OF 12N. CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION IS SCANT...
THOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND HEAVY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT
AND IS SUPPORTED BY BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS FROM QUIKSCAT.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND EXPERIENCING
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN
SHIPS... WHICH SEEMS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST IN MAKING THE DEPRESSION
ALMOST A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE GFDL HAS A SEEMINGLY MORE
REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGE... SLOW AT FIRST
THEN MORE RAPID IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND IS USED AS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. A STRENGTHENING
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO START MOVING MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN EARLIER TODAY AND... CONSEQUENTLY... THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3-5. THE FORECAST
IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND CLOSE TO
THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 11.8N 25.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 12.1N 27.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 12.4N 31.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 34.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 38.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 16.3N 43.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 50.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA