Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[mike815]

Yea it might just make it maybe somehow or miss the weakness and another high build on it idk well see its very far out

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

another request, can we see some climatology maps showing typical tracks storms take where this system is now and for this time of year?

[Bonedog]

hmmm guess the NHC is staying very conservitive with this storm. slow strengthening, maybe a hurricane, even stating its below the model concensus. Only time will tell but I thought and looks liek a few others do to that this one will spin up nice and big.

[drezee]

[Bonedog]

wow looks like any system that went past 50W turned into a 3 or better. Even a few landfallers on there

[wxman57]

another request, can we see some climatology maps showing typical tracks storms take where this system is now and for this time of year?

gatorcane,

I highly recommend this Coastal Services Center web site. You can easily make your own climo maps. All storms from 1851-2005 are there. Pick by latitude/longitude, zip code, place name, etc. Choose what month, what storm category, what years, etc. Many selections:

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[drezee]

Models:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm

[curtadams]

Based on those tracks, I predict a major storm impact - on the discussion forums! A major with a 5-day west running history, predicted to recurve - that's going to generate some serious discussion. Reserve your thread space today!

On a more serious note, I'm curious. The comp models sure pegged Flo and Gordon - are they as good six days out? That's a fairly sharp turn.

[HURAKAN]

I am a little surprised that the NHC is quite low on intensity with a system organizing this quickly. Cautious is the word. This system may prove to be interesting. Is 50w still the range of recon?

I think it's west of 55W. This will be a HELL of a HELENE!!!

[wxman57]

Here's a pretty satellite shot of Helene in the making:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Personally I wouldn't even worry about this thing if I was in the NE Islands, at least not for the next 4 to 6 days. It is still way to far away, and could always recurve long before it poses any threat to land.

[CrazyC83]

I am a little surprised that the NHC is quite low on intensity with a system organizing this quickly. Cautious is the word. This system may prove to be interesting. Is 50w still the range of recon?

I think it's west of 55W. This will be a HELL of a HELENE!!!

I think so too. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a Category 4 out of this eventually. And no, I don't see a fish here. Unfortunately.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking great though in that pic.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to initialize it as Tropical Storm Helene on my prediction, not as TD8...

[gatorcane]

I am a little surprised that the NHC is quite low on intensity with a system organizing this quickly. Cautious is the word. This system may prove to be interesting. Is 50w still the range of recon?

I think it's west of 55W. This will be a HELL of a HELENE!!!

I think so too. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a Category 4 out of this eventually. And no, I don't see a fish here. Unfortunately.

why most of the models (except the GFS unfortunately) are already showing some kind of recurve....?

[HURAKAN]

"A Beauty" as Steve Irwin used to say.

[southerngale]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

[HURAKAN]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

We are at the peak of the hurricane season!!!

[gatorcane]

Oh wow, another TD. Before I have a chance to catch up, maybe someone can answer...is this likely to join Gordon in some deep sea fishing?

as far as I can gather there is a chance, but the GFS does not show a recurve at this point....that is kindaof scary but some of the European models want to turn it at 50W into a weakness.